AMD flat

Looking for weak stock to short on market run/reverse. Hoped for something that hadn't made a ndh at 10:45. This sector caught my eye on my "birdeye" layout, though it did have a midmorning new high. Short for move to vwap, took some off. Then final stop above pivot and downtrend line, for +$6 net on the total trade.

NFLX -5%

NFLX relative strength when market is turning. I like my entry. Stopped out on a flush and it eventually did go to my target near day high (and then ndh). Examining the stop placement, I considered putting it much tighter, or bit farther. Bit farther would have kept me in. Bit closer would have been probably a flat trade.

Lesson Stop against a real pivot.

SQ -18%

SQ Tradenet pick. This was a waste. I tried to use Tradenet callout and Tradenet timing. Was never green on this trade. I tried to add off the vwap, with stop right above and I ate it right away.

Learn Stick to trades with nearby pivot.

AAPL +29%

AAPL continuation of weakness on daily. Entered, in retrospect, early. Used premkt level for initial stop. T1 day low with T-stop. It blew straight through so I got a little more. Second exit on squeezed stop. Very feel-good trade. Peace.

clockwork

After a lot of introspection about trading style in the Corona Era, I understand I need to stick to clockwork trading. And if I change anything, it would be to go smaller.

Yesterday and today, I really like how I traded. It makes sense to me. Not a bunch of hacking around. MY technique. MY tolerances. The system that I know works for ME.

Trading the Corona era

I've been treading water. This market has been frustrating for me.

I have tried various techniques for trading all this volatility and news:

Giving plenty of room. I took some big losses. No real big winners.

Using stop/limit orders. Recipe for big losses.

Taking big positions to get big moves. I trade too scared.

The spreads are so wide, I don't want to use stop/market orders.

The antidote for ALL of these is smaller position size, patient timing, tight stops.

reading tea leaves

This is my read on the current market technicals as of last night, using SPY (SP500 ETF). I can not tell you where the market goes, but my incredibly short term plans revolve around the bias I develop from zooming in and in and in to intraday levels on these charts.

Multi year long term view https://www.tradingview.com/x/pCcGZsCF/

Major long term uptrends (green) are broken. 

Medium term view https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6wM61ws/ (to see recent relevant levels better)

Short term view of this downtrend https://www.tradingview.com/x/1sj7Wl06/

Today we tested above the downtrend line (red) but didn't hold there. Technical traders and particularly "algos" (programmed trading) did not defend that break. We know markets don't go straight up, even if it feels like they go straight down.

    

This bounce off the bottom needed to rest somewhere. This downtrend line is an area where it could be expected to stall. Now bulls want to see the market pull back, make a higher low, and then a higher high. Maybe something like (purple)

If we cross and stay below area of the blue line, that is a lower low. That is a continuation of the downtrend. 

SPY, wild ride

Daily and hourly SPY chart, for reference the moves that are happening. in 7 trading days, it dropped from 339 to 286. This is supposedly coronavirus news. Panic over global economic slowdown bc pandemic.

Today at 10am, Fed suddenly announced an interest rate cut. Market that was dropping spiked like crazy, but it very quickly gave it all back again and more. Crazy volatile times.

DAILY

HOURLY

MINUTE, TODAY

Trading massive volatility

I stepped into a big risk zone past 3 days. Loaded my "on hold" cash into the trading account so I can trade much more. I don't want to keep this money in there, but it has been actually a comfort in that I can take a trade and know I can stop it properly and still take several more tries. This is the pro/con of trading in a cash account: I can take multiple trades, but only until I've used all my settled cash once.

As a result, I'm trading slightly larger (or sometimes MUCH larger) positions. This amplifies everything. I find that I am able to apply my same techniques with the same level of emotion, but the gains and losses are potentially bigger. I'm discovering that I'm happy to make those 2-10% gainers, because the cash actually really adds up. For example today I made about +2% on my account, but the $ amount is very satisfying.

Starting tomorrow, I need to start moving some money back to the hold. That is my dry powder, my insurance.

SPY 4 months up, 5 days down

My retirement accounts have had a pretty big drawdown. This move was approximately -10% in 5ish days. Seemed like a fast ride up, but how about that drop!

You can really see all the trading axioms are wise:
Don't try to catch a falling knife.
The market can go down longer than you can stay solvent.
Hope is a 4 letter word.
Trade with a plan.
The market doesn't care what you think.

CRM -30% on nms, disaster on wheels

Hard to tell what I was thinking, in retrospect. This was a shitty setup and a shitty entry. I deserved to lose on this one. Also... putting so much money into it was fucked up. This was a disaster on wheels.

I came in this morning to no good setups. In that case I should walk away or paper trade at most. This was money down the toilet. After 2 days of market dump, should not have shorted an extended gap down. I can't even identify a rationale for the first entry. The second entry was arguably decent. All stops were too generous.

Terrible trade. 3rd red day in a row. I'm obviously losing my mind, not just my money.

SPCE nms = loser

The daily setup on SPCE looks so juicy and I stabbed at it. Earnings today/after, so maybe I shouldn't expect the move today.

Went for puts, initially, with very tight stop. First trade -8%
Then I flipped to calls, which is what I liked initially for daily chart. Rode those, added... for a long time. Didn't take my chance at 10:05, then stopped below lows. Didn't trade like clockwork. I gave it room. I shouldn't be so kind.

Shown below, 2 rt trades.

In addition, I opened 1 2/28 28 put for earnings lotto. UPDATE -53% on lotto put.

V -18% stopped on top tick

Shorted fail of ndh at 30ema, also premkt high. I like the pick, I like my play, and it worked... sort of, in that the stock price dropped by $1... just the option didn't pay. 

AVGO -8% don't hold on hope

Good gap down setup below box, but gapped to 200dma. OK. Have that in mind. Like everything else this morning it gapped down and was bought hard in opening minutes. AVGO intraday weakness caught my eye. After surge, fail, I shorted vwap breakdown. Didn't hit any target and stopped on reduced stop. Another loser, and after I got out it would have been green for me, but I can't try to hold on for that. Holding on "hope" is not Clockwork Trading. I take my stops and keep my peace.

AAPL 2 trades, both losers -25%

AAPL was my prime target today. Losing the daily box and 50ma's was so juicy. It gapped down, dropped like $8 in the first bar, then came back in the next 2 bars. I waited. It stalled near a premarket level so I bought puts on first weakness. Those stopped out.

Second trade, it ran up to another premkt level and stalled. I bought puts when it looked to fail. Stopped again. Ouch.

Monday morning big gap down open

Market opened way down today. Opening was bought up (coincidentally, the gap-up I was watching and passed on, dropped). I did a pretty good job of waiting for the buying to stall before shorting, and keeping my stops. I think I picked well. I think I sized well. I had a Clockwork day, but I lost too much. LESSON: Even if I'm picking right, sizing right, trading right, I need to have a max day loss where I just realize "my" trades aren't working today. And stop pressing into it.

Psychologically I think it was an ok day. I just wish I lost less. How to do this? Stick with my smaller position sizing, I did that right, but I'm thinking of a max account loss percentage. If I get there, stop trading. Forget about the cash I haven't used yet. On a day my method isn't working, better to keep the cash dry.

WORK didn't work -3%

WORK didn't work? Hard to find a less original title.

Gapper above 3 day pattern so I'm wary to begin with. Not many setups today, and I already hit SPCE for my day, so this was almost an afterthought as it approached a level I liked. Took only a small position so as not to dump my day and not to kill this amazing trading glow I have about my week.

SPCE 2 trades for 30%

SPCE is a hot stock. Not my setup on the daily, but it has a lot of action and I gave it a shot when it set up interestingly intraday. Tight setup, tight stops. Not going to give away my sanity to a nms.

As a result of tight stops, 2 trades. No regrets about that. I traded each one like clockwork. Peace.

I feel good!

I feel so good about my trading this week.
LIKE CLOCKWORK! I think this is what I will name my trading entity: Clockwork Trading.

Boom! Picked great setups. Waited for ideal entries, and mercilessly cut when it doesn't do what I think it should.

I had 4/4 green days this week (Monday holiday), new account high. Psychologically very good trading.

Peace.

Z two trades for overall +16%

Two different positions in Z.

Of 3 picks today, only Z set up for me. I hesitated bc wide spreads, and then wound up not going small. I think I have to chalk this up to some luck today in that it didn't hit my stop on the pullback (would have given back first trade and more). 

But I also think it's a lesson that when I play my best setups, I should expect them to trade "right" or otherwise get out with confidence.

Double complexity here was the stock price volatility plus wide option spreads. Took my limit orders and PEACE!

First trade preempt ndh.

Second trade trying to grab resumption above 64, but it rocked me first. I think it was overconfident to add (though I did increase hard stop to below pivot), but it worked. Based on huge position and spread, I took off the front as soon as it was green and then gave zero room to the rest.

ALLY +19% lunch money

I entered ALLY at 9:52. Kind of late for me and I considered just not taking it. Spread was 5-10c on .20 option, so I went small(ish) and opened with a limit order. That was a bit harrowing, bc by the time it filled, it was pretty near my stop. As it dropped, I didn't like the option action (ex, bids would disappear to .05, even as it dropped) and I reduced my p/l target. I feel like I was right to play it like that and possibly lucky to get the fill on the limit as it bounced. Take a little lunch money and call it a day.

BHC +37% so juicy

BHC so juicy! I waited for buying to stall. Opened puts for mini flag b/d. Took beautiful p/l target then squeezed stop. After I stopped, it did a bounce to vwap and then continued to my target.

1. According to my rules, it was right not to give it room.
2. I considered shorting again at vwap test, but passed (nms)
3. Peace!

ADI eating the spread for -16%

I thought ADI was going to be pick of the day, but it sold hard in opening minutes. I waited for bounce, stabilize, round number and entered. It got to my p/l target twice without transaction. Almost stopped, and on the next run it got above the 9:45 trendline and still didn't GO, I squeezed stop and basically I ate the spread. 

In the past, I would have thought it regretable to eat the spread... would try to get out on limit order. That is a good way to eat s#!t. Better to start with small positions and eat the spread if I have to vs psychological damage.

I wish my target order had filled, but no regrets how I managed this. Peace.

Clockwork, baby!

I love how I feel trading today/yesterday. LIKE CLOCKWORK!
Good picks. Smart plays. Scrape in a little money. Peace.
Love it.
Just trade like clockwork.
Clockwork trading.

The trade I didn't take

I think it's worth posting, in light of down-is-up-and-up-is-down behavior that this one I passed on. It was a big opening gap above a very long downtrend. I marked it for a long. But in the moment it didn't feel right and I had other things going on so I passed. I also had it low probability bc despite gap above dt, it was a gap still near lows. Mostly, I'm glad I didn't take this loser. 

HSBC -7% option traded so wierd

Was wary of this bc strong support, but gap was so big. After wiggling, I got terrible fill on puts to preempt drop. It made the move I wanted, but the option didn't move. The spread opened up on the ask to my target (me!) but it didn't fill. The bid/asked continued to float without logic so I squeezed and dumped it.

Pleased with my judgement and management of crappy position. Peace!

CAG +4% Win a little, lose a little

Disappointed, but no regrets.

Gap down below huge pattern. After opening buying, short the drop. Took PL Target then squeezed stop. Spreads were wide, but still have to take stops. If anything, all the more reason to take targets.

Peace.

KR +59% beauty

I love how I traded today.
I made sure to pick the best gaps. Gap up at highs, gap down at lows.

KR set up great. I waited well while it initially traded below premkt stuff. Bought as it regained strength, watching Level 2.

It blew through my pl that before I could even set the order, so I squeezed stops.

Just plain beautiful. Peace!

Up is down and down is up. Over trading for multiple losses...on a Friday. HURTS!

Today up was down and down was up. Nothing did what it was "supposed to."
Today I seriously overtraded. While I did follow my system rules, I didn't take heed to stop total account losses.
What should I do on a day like this? I need to mind my total account loss. Don't take one more trade. The fact that nothing is behaving tells me not to waste any more time and money.



ROKU
gap up
pivot and bounce
-31.71%

NVDA
gap up
ran up, down, piviot and buy.
-42.86%

YNDX
gap down
wiggled around, short new low. spread too big
-57.18%

SPY
nms
run down. bounce and base below vwap,
-28.61%