Friday, February 4, 2022

Need to YANK profits off in volatility

Volatility burns me again. I used my average tolerance stops and got chopped. Net red day. I HATE red days. Need to keep those profits.

Something else I did wrong today was only trading what's in front of me. I had about 10 picks today, but only put 3 on the birdeye. In the end, I traded FB and SNAP bc they were on the birdeye, but never went back to sort through the other picks.

In high volatility, I need to grab fast on surges or give tons of room for stops (extra tight or extra loose). I know that my personality prefers to take the fast gains, even if I will miss the bigger gains. Enduring a big pullback is too hard for me. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

So today, I didn't yank SNAP on the first surge. Tried a really late short (which was my initial thought based on premkt). If I wanted short, I should have shorted the top reversal. If I wanted long, I should have yanked some on that power surge. Then I got stopped on my second calls before vwap bounce and the real move came in. I was watching SPY. SPY daily had made a pivot lower-high so all longs are to be doubted (another clue I should yank longs on surges $STUDY). SPY intraday was pulling back off resistance. That should have told me to yank my longs. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

FB, "courageous entry"--I'm such a hero LOL--off the 2 bar reversal bottom. I got half off nicely on the surge, lesson learned for now (see SNAP), but the add (bought higher) went out for a loss on the stop.




Thursday, February 3, 2022

The peace trade

The peace trade is to get my piece, and peace. I left a lot on the table today, but since I feel the action has been difficult lately, and I'm working on keeping my gains, today I rode the peace train!

Really, if I look myself in the eye, I should also give myself a good hard shake. I'm up 14% today. Why am I so greedy about the stuff I missed? That's how things go to hell in a handbasket!

SMALL SIZE
TIGHT STOP IS THE RIGHT STOP
PAY MYSELF FIRST
GET MY PIECE AND PEACE

Trade like this every day and I'll be so juicy!! Take MY piece.








shorting in the lower right

Shorting new lows, in the lower right of the chart, isn't the same as long new highs.

That's what the market is giving today, for volume gapper screens. 

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

up down + down up day

When will I learn how to identify these days? Need to go back and $STUDY. 
Red day today on SBUX. Market strong up into resistance. Gap up scan, best tickers into resistance, so I looked for weakness. SBUX gap down below minor levels. Spread was ok when I got in, but widened after. Small position size by default, but ugh! Couldn't find anything that made sense to me after that so wrapped it.

Good news is I cut the loss. Tight stop is the right stop!! Look how much trouble I would have been in if I tried to hold!



Lehavdil... 2 tickers I watched for longs on gaps up FB and AMD... both down.



Tuesday, February 1, 2022

coulda shoulda

Oy! PLUG. Didn't take a small loss, then took a big loss right before the reversal. You have to take a stop somewhere, the tight stop is the right stop.

MOS got me somewhat back, but close in red today.




Thoughts about stops. Being ruthless.

One kind of stop I use is a "take profit" stop, where I'm squeezing up a trailing stop to give another smidge of room but trying to lock profits. I feel good about my take profit stop technique. Maybe this is obvious, because if I'm using this, I'm at a win. 

Another kind of stop I use is a "broken trade" stop, where I want to take off a trade that is not behaving right, trend is broken, probable case not playing out. I need to work on my broken trade stop loss technique and discipline. I need to make some firmer definition about where to place these, and definitely need to develop a feeling of relief when the stops hit and not a feeling of dread

A strong interfering emotion is greed. I want every penny out of a trade. Never want to eat a spread. And other fantasy-land trading.

First thought. If I'm in too big or if the spreads are too big, I am hesitant about stops, exactly when I need them most. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #1, small size. Small size makes all decisions easier because small size carries less emotion. Lesson here is that size affects my stop discipline. Some ideas around this are - trade small size. take partial stops. remember clockwork and be a responsible trader.
I need to stop my silly game of stop/limit orders. If I need to get out, then get OUT and use that market order. If I want to get cute with limits, then take targets. Stop limit orders confuse the emotions.

Something else to consider, and I've known this for a long time, if I'm drawing trendlines all over the chart... I'm probably in a bad trade. Good trades GO. Bad trades waste my time, if not also my money. Cut the bad trades and move on!

Here's what the greed trap does to me in terms of stops... I keep trying to give it one more level, and just one more level. But by then my stop technique is no longer appropriate. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #2, tight stop is the right stop. Disobeying this gets me into more trouble than any other rule-break. This is the concept of keep losses small. Just keep the losses small, and the winners will add up.
Reassure myself: I have a good win/loss record. Go ahead and take those small losers. They will seem insignificant in the rear view. 

THE TREND. Always assess the trend I'm trading. Look left. If the trend I'm trading is broken, I need to be absolutely ruthless. 

oof

 This is the trade that is breaking the camel's back about stops. This went alllll wrong



Monday, January 31, 2022

Zig

Not many picks today. Market daily looks bull below resistance. 2 gap up picks are main targets. NVAX gapping above bottom. ZIM gapping near ath.

I ruled out ZIM bc it is 5th day of a strong run and indexes still below resistance.

Market barfed at the open (mkt tone now: skeptical of all bounces) and I played NVAX actually for a failure. Spread was not great so I didn't get best target, and since I'm only trading zigs, no zags, after 1 reasonable (but scary) bounce, I had to clamp down. No regrets there bc it launched after that. 

Since NVAX was originally a long pick, in retrospect seeing the subsequent run up how would I have played it? Where would the entry have been? Maybe only after 10am, surge, pb near vwap, then run again. Market move may have corroborated that, but I think I would have been hesitant.

Trying a new chart format where upper left is trade target daily, large right is 1 min trade, lower left is 1 min index for reference.


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