Thursday, January 21, 2021

Tracking stats

I've been thinking and struggling over how to track my stats. It's been a long time since I've even tried to track anyting except daily account balance.

I feel like "all" pro traders know their stats. Do they? At least they know their win percentage...right? Their system expectancy?

My trouble is establishing what constitutes a trade. I don't trade with Rs. I don't trade with consistent postion size. I usually enter all in one, then scale out in multiple sells; is that one trade based on the entry or is each exit a trade? etc, etc, etc.

So really the question is, what do I seek to know? Definitely, annotating charts and this narrative blogging has been incredibly helpful to improving my trading. I would hope to look at my data to try to discern ways to improve. 

For example, I used to take my first target at 10%, and I used to take off almost all of it, leaving just a small trailer. In between, I used to take off half at pl tgt, first at 12%, then 15%, and now at 20%. What if I could ascertain that I could be consistently holding out for 25% or more? What if I determined that I should be taking off more/less at 20%, to optimize gains. Maybe this is a job for backtesting, but I feel my style is more of an "art" and not all that easy to backtest.

Relevant stats for me might be:
number of trades with <0 gain
number of trades with 0-10% gain
number of trades with 10-20%, 20-30% and so on. 

Which size gain is my sweet spot? Right now, I hope it would be the 20%ish trades, since that is my current "pay myself first" pl target zone. 

Another point I'd like to investigate:
When a trade is a "total loss", how typically big is that loss?

In terms of overall win loss % performance, I could simply calculate my green vs red days, without trying to take a breakdown of trades, or trying to define/control what constitutes one trade.

Will continue to examine and strive to improve.

More chop

It's been a tough week. Monday holiday. Tuesday huuuuge loss day. Wednesday and today chop for miniscule gains. Tomorrow I'll need to just take it easy. 






Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Warning sign

I did it all wrong today. Took a chunk out of my account. A few times I gave myself "last trade" (a few?!... Does "last" not have a clear definition?)

I know I could learn a lot by reviewing charts today, but I feel too wounded to even peak at it. Maybe later tonight.

I busted good run today. I need to get a handle on it quickly. 

ROKU got me today. 
Stopped me by a few pennies before running up. I feel like this happens when I ignore the "right" stop (tight stop is the right stop) and try to give it room. I seem to give it not quiiiiite enough room and I get my stop swept before the reversal. 
Knowing this, I give it "more than I think I should" room, but I seem to still get hacked like this. As if it's personal!! AND IT IS PERSONAL. It is my personal message, over and over, that the tight stop is the right stop. Otherwise, I'm in uncharted territory and I derserve what I get.

Computer issues

I've been wrestling computer issues for a few months now. I've bought and returned 3 (4?) computers which didn't solve my problem in various ways. 

Today I'm trying to use for the first time, the web-based version of StreetSmart Edge. It seems good for starters, but I await seeing if it's the actual solution. 

Meanwhile, I intended to trade small today, but it's such a juicy open!  

UPDATE: The data feed at the open felt like a disaster and I switched back to the regular application, which was a little better?? But now I'm going back to the cloud version to see how it feels in the flow of the day (vs "monday" open).

Popular Posts