Apex qualifying and lessons

I reached the qualifying threshold in 2 Apex accounts. Also busted in one while figuring it out (platform, orders, sizing, etc). I need about 4 more trading days until I go live. Will be extra cautious.

I hope it will be a great additional arena for me, but anyway it has taught me some interesting things about my primary trading.

One major lesson is using stochastics on 5 and 1 (and sometimes 15) to help me wait for pullbacks to play out and inform profit taking. 

Another lesson has been about the kind of "low tolerance" zigs-no-zags holds I want to be doing. I went smaller in my options account and got great results too. This is completely aligned with the stochastics factor.

A third lesson is about accepting my performance and walking away. Don't sit there and continue to hack at it. I know this lesson and that's why I have been trading in a cash account. I need to refocus on that as I add futures which is in a margin account and has 23 hour/day access. 

new thinking on taking profits

 I'm moving away from the 20% p/l target. And I'm moving away from taking off half at the first target. 

My trouble has persistently been that big losing days take a bite out of my progress.

New thinking: I need to keep my same loss controls, and build confidence to ride gains longer. I simply need more gains!

Today's approach was smaller size, and go a little farther otm for easier holds, smaller loss potential, bigger gains for successful moves. Today there was a power move on the open that helped me a lot. So I will continue to monitor over time how this is going.

Stellar day!

how many ways to trade wrong

LESSON! I have a consistently profitable system. When I trade like clockwork I rake it in. When I get "too smart" I get whacked. 

Friday I had a losing day, also being "too smart". This is a cycle I need to break. It feels like I need to make it back right away. But it is futile to fight a market that is not conducive to my system. I can't make MY money if I don't get MY setups. 

So today I preempted on GOOGL and didn't take +10% when I had it, a few times, and then going to a loss. 

TSLA was a sort of desperation trade. 

All serves only to f* my mentality even worse. 

That's what should be the most dear to me, even more than 1 day's gains or losses. I need to protect my psychological capital. I improve my mentality by following my rules and raking in my corresponding gains. 

And probably I should get back to reading The Mental Game of Trading book. Am I self-sabotoging? Am I working with an inflated ego?

got chopped on the inside day

The FIRST rule of inside days: don't expect followthrough. 

How many years have I been trading?

This morning on the open there was a wild market glitch. Lots of strange halts and weird action. Fortunately I didn't get caught in that. 

Then I took 1 "normal" loss and 1 C-game loss (0dte) and I'm calling it quits. Coulda' shoulda on the last one, which...  wtf, self!?!  0dte is poison. Also poison: not taking the pltgt bc I want so much more. 

Repeat: the pltgt is my bread and butter. I need to take that target every single time. Either I take the target with a limit order, or run a trailing stop behind it for more. But there should never be a time when I hit +20% and don't take it off for at least +15%. +20 should never go red.

And helloooooo....! I only turn to 0dte in the first place when I'm desperate 🚩. 

If I'm even looking at 0dte, I should shut down.

All eyes on TSLA

TSLA was the only trade I loved today. I love that daily pattern for a continuation up. Lots of eyes on TSLA. Wanted the followthrough today.

Started by watching intraday levels. I don't mind the few losses I took on starters. I was pre-empting, so starters are the way to go. In retrospect, it seems silly to have tried the puts, but it briefly seemed like TSLA was going to reject vs break the level I wanted. 

Finally TSLA (and the market) started to firm up and I was able to get a good add. I also went farther otm (much smaller/lotto) in case I could get a real flier today. 

When it finally did the beauty run I was hesitant to take targets, especially after the initial losses. Wanted redemption of losses. Wanted 🤑, but I must capture the bread and butter even if I'm still in the red, so I took that pl target. Each trade must be managed on its own, and not in light of what other trades did to me. Also pained me to take that second (squeezed) stop, but that is clockwork and clockwork works. Follow the rules!
I still had the flier in case of launch, but even without the lottos I was back in green at that point with just simple clockwork.

More proof I must stick with clockwork, is how I exited on the downside. Everything I was watching inexplicably topped around 10:25. SPY never even made ndh which is a yellow light on breakouts. I skimmed out of the flier (130 calls) position on the other side. I hated every moment of selling because I dreamed of 128 and 135 targets, but after the fact, as it continued even more downward, I'm glad to be out.

LESSON - The ~66% gains on the otm options were the same approximate dollar gain as the ~20% gains on the atm options because of the difference in cost. Yes I had to deploy more capital for the gains on the atms, but also otms are more likely to dissolve in my hands vs get these gains.
Example:
123C : cost 3.18 : 20% gain=$64 each
130C : cost 1.02 : 66% gain=$67 each

I have studied this before and concluded it is generally better for me to stay at the money. Even though I can get more contracts otm, the position loses value faster in absence of a big move. Losers are bigger, but winners aren't necessarily bigger. Otm is only good for a lotto type play, small size that I could lose entirely, and needing a really big move to get the payoff. It is not psychologically good for me to be always trading on lotto for the same reason it's not good for me to imagine every trade is a homerun.

Please just stick with clockwork. This is a great example of listening to what IS happening and making a great day after of initial losses. If I had held against hope, that is wishing. Trading is not wishing. Consistent profitability is following the rules like clockwork and getting MY money.

Whatever happens next is not my trade. I made good money today., Closed all exposure by 10:35am. Now I go have a great day doing other things with my gains locked in. That's also clockwork trading: grab my money and go have a day, sleep well at night. Don't sweat the market all day and night.

****

Over an hour later, if I was still in this, I would be sweating and obsessing. But instead, I've had a nice morning of journaling, logging, and chatting with trading buddies.

Incompetent.

 I spent most of the morning trading long then short TSLA and came up red. Both great entries. What went wrong? Greed. I ignored my pl target and tried for a homerun. 

This is the trading performance of a child or a novice. I know better than this. Lessons learned a zillion times: I am not smarter than the market; Clockwork works, follow the rules; don't hold for homeruns. Always take a pltgt.

What a way to close the year. -12% on the long and -5% on the short, after each had been up 30%+. There is literally no way to explain this incompetent behavior except extreme greed. 

What was my mental state that posessed me to trade like a jerk? Greed. "This is going to really run"... "This is going to get wrecked." I should BE AWARE when I notice myself thinking these thoughts. These are irrational thoughts.

Taking off until next week. May 2023 be my most profitable yet!!

same mistake - LESSON

Today I made the same poor judgement on BA as I did yesterday(inverse) on QCOM. I'm trying to buy a pullback of the gap/go. But I'm actually going in on more than a pullback. 

Yesterday, QCOM was supposed to be a bear play but it opened with a strong bull surge that I tried to short. Today, BA was supposed to be a bull play but I tried to buy a too-big drop. A drop, not a pullback. I should have passed.

For comparison, QCOM yesterday

preempting and oversizing

Market opened inside with a bearish bias. Big economic announcement expected at 10am. Frequent arrogant mistake: I thought I could get a quick trade off before the announcement. Correct mentality would have been... no moves are going to really happen before the announcement, I should wait.

^LESSON

Going back to an older format to try to focus on skills. Last trade was definitely trade of day on UAL.

TSLA

Setup - gap down against green bar. 

Entry - breakdown of opening range, breaking vwap

Management - stop above igniting range.

Comments - at first not sorry to be out. Later the short did play out. Of course I should stop, but perhaps I should have found another chance to re-enter. In reality, it didn't do what it was "supposed" to, so I stopped watching it.

QQQ 0dte

Setup - nms.

Entry - break above opening range

Management - initial stop 290.59, below igniting range. When it stalled at the first top (a premkt level) and other watchlist fading, I yanked a smidge. In retrospect not enough. Rode one bounce down to vwap, but then raised my stop. How did I lose so much while exiting ~around my entry? I bought on a surge, so option price was exaggerated. I lost some time and the option was shrinking before the ISM number. 

UAL

Setup - gap (inside) then trade above short term consolidation

Entry - looking to break the box. 

Management - Initial stop below day low. 

This is the one I should have waited (obv! in retrospect) until after the announcement. When it held and then showed real strength after the ism dump, I found a chance to add. Now I'm oversize. Hoped for a really big move, so I took only half the original position at pltgt, leaving 3/4 my position which I shaved of in tiny bits until I gave up. It got to an equal high to the Nov 15 high, it had climbed a steep trendline and I dumped for the tl break.

After my close, it went up much more, but I don't think I would have gotten very much more out of the option. There was approx 10% spread in the option, so I traded a bit scared. No regrets for a really nice trade. I got my piece. Peace!

Bear market mantras

Below is the breakout I tried to play long this morning. It was (what I call...) hard work. That is the feeling that it's just not launching like it was "supposed to". It was a hard climb. It didn't make it to my target. And later I see it failed. 

This is what I want to remember about trading in bear markets: the pressure is down. Everything is heavy as if there is more gravity. Wet blanket on everything. It is a profit taking day for longs, because they are finally getting their chance. It is a stopping out day for shorts, buying to cover.

Breakouts will have no power and are likely to fail. 

Trapped longs will look to sell. A breakout could be manufactured/manipulated as a selling opportunity (realization as I am currently reading Reminiscences). 

On up days in a bear market: shorts will cover, taking profits by buying.

An up day in a bear market is not a wholehearted buying day. It is a short covering day or a profit taking day for longs. There is a lot of selling pressure into the strength (wet blanket on everything). On up days, breakdowns will also not work because it is a short covering (buying) day.

Bad entry reduces gains

Here is another case of me jumping in too early and reducing my potential for gains. 

If I would have entered at 9:49 or 9:50, I may have gotten approximately the same entry price, but without the heart attack, though it did do another spike there at 9:55. 

Another thought about this setup: While I do think it's a valid gap below ST level, It is also the 4th consecutive down day and maybe it was not optimal in that way.

As this got back green for me, it also lost some momentum and I found it very hard to hold. I messed around with targets and trendlines, yanked stops, yanked limits. While it traded mostly flat from 10:30 until I gave up at about 11. UGH!! I just didn't want to go red again, so here I am with pretty small gains. But green. And I've released the stress of it.

Aside, a LESSON. I am pushing sooo close to a milestone account number. I think I may be trading extra-aggressively to try to ring the bell. But consider: extra aggressively should include waiting for great entries!

Update, after close.... If I would have held on for the consolidation, the next leg did come. Pltgt, Price Target, etc, etc. ... Would have been a tough hour and a half or more. That's a case (especially on a Monday) to set bracket order and walk away.

WAIT for wins.

CSCO, I waited so well. I got a great entry. Had great gains, but didn't take enough off, soon enough. Ended that trade well enough. I tried to hold for more, but the market was dropping and there wasn't enough pressure to lift this strongly. Should have taken bigger partials... 20/20.

PLUG was... well... is this my setup? On the 60, it looks like head/shoulders top. But on the daily, looks like a 123 continuation long. When the market was strengthening up, I preempted high flag breakout. It went directly against me. I tried to get out with a stop/limit, but it blew straight through and killed me. 

Again today my notes were: flat, inside open. don't preempt. 

Don't preempt got me a great entry in CSCO for a green trade. Preempt PLUG trade was a complete and utter waste, and took my day green to red.

letting winners run thoughts

Recently (and perpetually), I've pondered about when to trade tight and when to give room. Yesterday I had 2 trades that were "right" on premise, and I gave them room, but when they started to finally develop in my direction I cut them short.*

I have 2 general thoughts on that:
1. It didn't behave right in the first place so I shouldn't trust it too much when it barely does the "right" thing (so take small loss/gain instead of giving room again). This is my prevailing mode.
2. Meir Barak who says, "I trust it will go up/down" based on the way the setup is supposed to play out. He sometimes eats it big on this, but sometimes when it shapes up again he'll double into it and rake it in.

How should I decide? In general, I'm taking a relativity view on it. If my long setup / calls isn't playing out especially when the market or other tickers are, it makes sense to me to play it tight. OTOH, if we're discussing it, it's already done "not what it should have" so how do I view it in comparison to others and ultimately... at what point should I continue to give it room and at what point should I tighten stops?

Obv, stops always need to be in logical places. I'm having a feeling like I want to try to give these more room even after I've already given them room. Ex: I let it go against me 20%, now it's only 5% against me and I'm tempted to cut it. Should I let it ride? 

Ultimately, I guess it all depends on the climate of the market in that moment. I hate missing big winners, but I can't afford the big losers. So I guess that's my answer.. I have to cut the losers, even at the expense of the fomo.

*Looked at another way, I had the wrong entry. I should cut tightly and potentially reenter but never give room. This is the negative of a cash account. I can't always re-enter so I need to have protection but still play the odds.

About profit goals

Account is up 26% week over week! Ba-BAM!

At the beginning of the week, I set a very ambitious p/l goal. By Tuesday afternoon I scrapped it bc I was not on pace and I saw that pressing for it was not doing me any good. And yet... I came out this week very close to that goal. I'm thrilled!! 

I'm on a 7-day win streak. My stats recently are amazing, but I have not yet recovered from the June account massacre. What a waste! I must keep check on overconfidence. 

Let this be a LESSON! 

I am not smarter than the market. 

I won't get it back in one trade. 

Don't rely on disproportionate gains to "save" me. 

STOP when losses are small.

I need to trade like clockwork. Clockwork works! 

When I'm out of my mind or even when the market climate is just not conducive to my style, if I'm losing and not gaining, I must go smaller to regroup. 

Today was a "up is down and down is up" day, but I saw it coming!! Gaps up were into resistance, so I shorted. Gap down was not behaving right, so I passed. 

But the real money today was MRNA puts. The trade was craaazzyyy (very choppy trade and outrageous option spread) but I managed to get a piece and not get burned. After that, only thing to do is walk away and chill!

No charts. Have to go cook. Shabbat shalom!

Gaps up failing (as of ~10:30)...

Clockwork works! +9% day

 Clockwork trading principles:
- Small size
- Tight stop is the right stop
- Pay myself first

I am still trading a reduced size account, on which I am up 9% today. Trying to monitor feelings of "my trades are not working today" or "my setups are expiring". Today I'm done at 10:18. 

No real good setups on my screeners this morning. This tells me not to trust trades = take profits and don't mess around, don't chase.

I show in the charts that I've been using a technique of scaling in. I am still building to approximately my previous size, but only when it's working. This helps reduce the sting of losers. Will continue to experiment with this.

First setup of the morning, TSLA triggered immediately and I missed it. It could have been gorgeous, but as I well know it could also burn! Definitely don't chase. 

First trade CCIV didn't work well. Was right to stop, bc it went much farther against, before it came around. I didn't get emotionally invested in it, which allowed me to take it again when it set up again.

COIN was also one to wait for. Spread was massive, so I took ~10% to make sure I got out green.

After I declared my day done, AMC caught my eye. It may still run, but I held back and passed. That's not my setup, not my money. As I continue to watch it, it would have been psychologically tough, and then a loser. Phew!

LESSON: That's the kind of thing that might make me tilt. I had a solid up day. Called it quits. But if I would have indulged the impulse to trade AMC, and lost, then I would feel like I need to "get it back", and then I'd probably make the cascade of bad decisions that eats me alive.

Seems like approximately 3-5 trades before ~10am is my sweet spot?

In addition to my solid up day, I am also acknowledging the wisdom of the trades I didn't take.

Go and come back, but surely go. LESSON on reverse-revenge trades. **Important to reread

• When trades aren't working, leave and come back
• Long setups are for calls. Short setups are for puts. Don't reverse it, but do potentially try again when it sets up again (see leave and come back) this change might help me the most.
• Big gains come from trading right. Big losses come from trading wrong.

8 days ago, I had a new account high. The next day I lost 10%. When I say lost... I know very well where it went. It went down the drain bc indiscretion. Cocky, overconfident trading. 

It took me basically 2 weeks to recover. Two +5% days, a -7%, some little ones, and today, finally, +8%. The funny thing about today's big day, I didn't feel it happening. I was trading pretty small size, took one big loss (Friday options can burn!), but the win after win added up...probably also bc Friday and my ultra volitile 1st otm option was going itm. Same thing that burns me on losses.

So... how to view this. I don't like a -5% day and especially not a -10% day. But it's too easy to say, "so just don't have one". I need to understand how I get there. Is it that I'm not stopping trading when I'm -2%? Maybe. There's a complication with that, and it involves trading small.

When I trade big, I can lose big. That's pretty obvious. Even if I sometimes win, my biggest losers are the too-big trades, but my biggest winners are not from oversized postions. My biggest winners are getting into good trades and letting profits run.

That's really important so I'll restate it: 
Big winners come from trading right. 
Big losers come from trading wrong. 

Even with my overall success, I am still susceptible to poor trading quality that is costing me money. Especially lately, I'm losing on "reversing" revenge trades. Ex: well if my trade isn't going up, then clearly it's going to get wrecked so I reverse it and loose again, then it does go up as expected in the first place. What I need to do is skip the impulse to reverse. 

IF the setup is for long, and the long doesn't work... WAIT for another long! Don't get cute with a short. Effective shorts come from different setups.

Back to the thought that I should stop trading when I'm -2%, so I should never even get to -5%. Well yes, but, here's how that happens:

If I'm down 2%, then probably I'm trading clockwork and things aren't playing out right. At that point, YES, I totally should just walk away. But, because I've been taking small size I still have a lot of cash left and I have a hard time stopping. I could even walk away and come back! Doesn't have to be a hard stop. I just need to assess that my plays aren't working today. 

Go and come back!... The market will still be there. It takes time for new setups to develop anyway. Go and come back. Or don't come back. But think about it, if my high-probability plays aren't working, then it's not my day. Banging my head and having losses create psychological toxicity that is counterproductive to profitable trading.

Can't get water from a stone. Only trade true good setups. Don't get cute.

Contingencies. Agressive vs slower markets. How not to lose my pants.

I know what to do when it goes my way: Take off half at +20%, trail stop on the rest.

I know what to do when it goes instantly against me: Eat it at initial stop. 

What do I do in between? This is I think where I suffer. I skim, I add, I get chopped up. I need to think about how to handle this.

Today another struggle day. Up was down (long setups didn't follow through) and down was up (gappers down were bought hard). Let's think about what that means... profit taking? sustained profit taking? How do I know? How do I trade it? Smaller size? Quicker targets? 

I think the answer here is smaller size and flexible targets.

Smaller gives less emotion. 

If I've lately been going 1.5-2x size for aggressive. Need to drop back to 1x size or smaller.

Watch the volume. Watch the Level 2.

Stick to only the most liquid options so I can hold my levels.

If my trade is stalling at 15%, maybe I should take that vs press for 20% pl tgt, especially in chop. Stops are not a good solution, as I can't always eat the spread. Also psychologically, I don't want to always go out on the worst scenario.

Say something to myself like, this is no longer trending, or, this is not the trend I was looking for. ...and find my way out of the trade. But still, when to give up, and when to hang in? Volume. Level 2. Watch the indexes and other movers.

Losing day to open the year

At the open there were a few good picks. The longs didn't sustain (NIO, FUTU, MT). My only short pick (BABA) was my best trade of the day.  At that point I was down very small on the day. And then I started hacking around... making matters worse. What I did do well, though, was take my stops consistently.

At 2 different points, I realized the market wasn't behaving "my way" and that I should be calling it quits. 

The feeling that the trades I was taking "should have worked". This is the sensation that my techniques aren't winning in this market climate. I need to know to stop pressing. At least step back (paper trade!) while it plays out.

But I didn't want to close red. So I dug the hole deeper. My brain should have listened to my gut! 

As I go back through to annotate charts, it seems so clear that my methods weren't working today. I need to recognize those days. Just paper trade against fomo. 

Small losses are cost of doing business. Big losses end careers.

LESSON: Trust that feeling that the market isn't doing my thing, and take the rest of the day off! When I'm losing, every trade seems like the one that will save me, but in reality I'm off kilter and better to stop the bleed.

29 total exits. 8 wins and 21 losses (28% winners).

Another day of a thousand cuts.

Red result today. But the day was neither big enough loss to stop nor big enough win to stop. First FUBO calls was too much of a chase. I sacked my day on BNTX loss that was too big (position was too big, gave too much room on failed move). 

What I did do right was wait for the CRWD trade, even though I lost, I first looked at it in the opening consolidation (~9:40) which it failed hard out of. My trade was at 11:06, and I didn't stick around to see what might happen bc earnings later this week, so maybe the big breakout is not going to come. .

Made money both ways today, but couldn't capitalize on any big flush or surge.

LESSON: I've learned this before and I'll eat it again, but when the price breaks out but doesn't follow through, then it's a failure and I need to protect capital tightly.

ANOTHER LESSON: Even though I think I took a good opportunity on CRWD

Charts maybe later. Right now I'm a little fried.

Losses recovered. +22% stellar day!

 Ahhh! Tremendous day! B"H

Past 2 days have been bigger losers than I want to have. I am happy to redeem myself today, but I still need a good method for preventing significant losing days. 
I don't like stopping to trade if I still have cash. I need a method to pause, though. Trigger to pause should probably be
If first 2 trades are losers, pause until setups come on the 5 min chart. 
Always stay clockwork.

BA - I know it does this, doesn't launch right away. I bought too early. Today this was a loooong term trendline breakout so I "trusted" it to go. I've been burned before (including yesterday), but today it worked even though the mkt simultaneously traded down.

BYND - Champion of the day! Continuation of yesterday. Jumped on the train because I know the personality of this stock is to runaway.

JKS - Daily is crazy overbought. I tried to short it several days ago, but today Tradenet called it so I tried again. Didn't rinse fast after my entry, and I chickened out for a small loss. It did bounce down from VWAP (47.14), but I didn't try again.

Market bounce day. NVDA nms lesson

 Market dropped out past 3 days. Today gap up and looked to be a bounce day. 

My usual setups aren't setting up bc the drop. I need to work on an oversold bounce play, something like: Strong stock, oversold but holding good levels, then gapping up above intraday levels. 

I'm not sure NVDA exactly fit the bill on intraday levels. I think I was lured in by Meir. And then I got in over my head. First of all, the option was $12 range. And the spread was $1 or even $2. I know that is a recipe for disaster, bc I don't want to lose extra on the spread for a stop/market order. 

LESSON. Consider that pre-empting for entries is not a good idea on this setup. Preempting might work for a breakout, but an oversold bounce should prove itself first.  

I also got a tiny gainer on UBER which I played well on super small pos (at least I did that one right). And a full size loser on FB puts.