Wednesday, April 1, 2020

reading tea leaves

This is my read on the current market technicals as of last night, using SPY (SP500 ETF). I can not tell you where the market goes, but my incredibly short term plans revolve around the bias I develop from zooming in and in and in to intraday levels on these charts.

Multi year long term view https://www.tradingview.com/x/pCcGZsCF/
Major long term uptrends (green) are broken. 

Medium term view https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6wM61ws/ (to see recent relevant levels better)

Short term view of this downtrend https://www.tradingview.com/x/1sj7Wl06/
Today we tested above the downtrend line (red) but didn't hold there. Technical traders and particularly "algos" (programmed trading) did not defend that break. We know markets don't go straight up, even if it feels like they go straight down.
    
This bounce off the bottom needed to rest somewhere. This downtrend line is an area where it could be expected to stall. Now bulls want to see the market pull back, make a higher low, and then a higher high. Maybe something like (purple)












If we cross and stay below area of the blue line, that is a lower low. That is a continuation of the downtrend. 

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