Friday, September 13, 2019

BABA +9% but trading too big, too scared

Daily setup: Still looking for this break/run above 180 area. Officially, this is NOT my setup to preempt
Entry/play:
Management: Given that this is not my setup, I shouldn't be here and I know full well that my usual management tools need not apply. First of all I set a p/l limit order. On a 1 min scalp setup, initial stop should have been below day low or below trading pivot. Here I chose below premkt low (few cents below opening pivot). That saved my butt on the spike down then run back to day highs. Profit target got me out luckily well on first half. Then I trailed stop below pivots, but the option volatility really scared me. Stopped second half on manually trailed stop.
Psychology: In too big + today's expiration = trading scared. Opening chop clouded my thinking, so it's extra important to enter hard orders and not wing it. I would have been super bummed to have gotten stopped on the second day low, but must remember that stop would have been the thing that saved me from account destruction if it got worse.
Account destruction is enemy #1. Even worse than missed gains.




Thursday, September 12, 2019

psychology post: the problem with winning

The problem with winning is it gives too much confidence. I've had several good trades lately, and it almost scares me. Things are going so right. I'm good at following my rules when I'm right. I'm good at following my rules when I'm winning. My mortal downfall is being wrong. Especially dead wrong, when I enter a trade and it never goes green. If I'm wrong right away.

I know myself and soon I will start to jinx myself. It just takes that one bad trade to wipe out so much sweat. Interesting I refer to my downfall as "one bad trade". Because what is that really? A trade that doesn't go as I predicted isn't a "bad trade", that's part of business. 

One yanked stop is a BAD TRADE! And that's my own fault. It's destructive behavior.

I've worked on trading only my setup. I've worked on reviewing lekachim list (to the right) before market open. Now I need to work on eliminating my worst behavior: yanking stops. 

Yanking stops (or not placing them) is the single most destructive thing I do. It has literally obliterated my account(s) multiple times. 

Here are some tips to myself about using and not yanking stops. I've been talking to myself in the negative (don't), so I've tried to express these also in the positive, to remind myself the right thing to do.

Don't trade scared = trade more conservatively. Isn't it counter-intuitive? When I'm scared, I do the most incredibly destructive thing? No wonder I'm scared! I should be scared of myself, not of the market.
 + Don't trade wide spreads
 + Limit my position size
 + Give several days to expiration (ex: Wednesday move to next week, except lottos)
These are very simple and easy ways to be less scared. I shouldn't look at these techniques and think how it reduces my upside. I should look at these techniques and think about how it will help me not fry my account.

Don't ignore pivots = use pivots every time. 
 + Identify a valid pivot
 + Trade against a meaningful pivot
 + Stop beyond pivots
 + Stop beyond the pivot
 + Take the stop beyond the pivot
 + Have I made myself clear about stops and pivots?

DO cut my trades short. I think I get too stuck on my targets as if I'm some sort of genius. I'm not a F*ing genius. Keep some money. Scale out. Cut before my target vs giving nice money back. It's ok. I need to keep something, not hit homeruns. Maybe my target would eventually hit, but don't go through pain on that hope. Just take some off. PEACE.



BABA lotto calls +171%

Daily setup: Preemptive huge box breakout.
Entry/play: Lotto play means very small dollar size, out of the money calls, looking for a big fast move and willing to go to zero if it doesn't. Ex, this position was 6calls @.09 = $58 total.
Management: $176 looked like important level, tried to get a good entry. Wednesday buy for this Friday expiration. End of day I was down about 50%. Overnight news (equals luck) gapped the market, but my calls opened only break even. Some mid-morning news spiked everything and I got T1 (double, on half pos = 3 calls), so now I'm on free money. When it struggled with a top, I took off another 1 very near T2. Moved up stop to below volitility area and stopped the remaining 2.
Psychology: Good. The thing about the lotto is I've written off the money as I buy it, and hoping for at least a double. By definition with close expiration and out of the money, it's bound to melt fast. I like how I managed this trade especially because of the volatile spike that got me near some targets. I really hoped it would go out of the box so much stronger, but I got my piece (more than my usual % piece), and peace!



BUD +18% really lonely trade

Daily setup: Gap above box
Entry/play: new 1 min high
Management: initial stop below day low. Take half at p/l target. Then I realized I'm LITERALLY the only one in the trade. I bought 2, sold 1, and day volume was 3. So I squeezed stop hard.
Psychology: OK. This is my textbook setup. It behaved as I expected, except for low volume. I like how I traded it, even if it was small position, small $ gain, it was a decent % gain and that's how I need to trade.
Immediately after I sold, there was some news that spiked the whole market, but it didn't run to my target.



Wednesday, September 11, 2019

MU textbook 1 min trade +23% in 7 min

Daily setup: Gap above high flag
Entry/play: Trade above opening minute bar, using NEXT week calls.
Management: Initial stop below day low. Quickly move up to someplace more comfortable. Initial profit target 20%. Bracket order didn't execute like I expected, so I deleted and manual entered. Then squeezed stop on the rest.
Psychology: Beautiful. Strong opening move, I jumped on, got my piece. And peace. Now I have the rest of my day to be productive.



NTNX toxic trade conclusion +10%

Held over from previous day. Was actually serene about it overnight. I think that's only because I accepted I might lose it all.
So in the morning I let it develop instead of bailing on the initial drop.
I still traded scared the rest of the day. Shaving off profits and stopping too tight instead of letting it run. Total trade was about +10%.

This trade was TOXIC, in that I put too much at risk and rode it on hope. Completely not worth the grief.


Monday, September 9, 2019

NTNX taking home a loser

Daily setup: Gap up above pullback
Entry/play: jumped in too fast on a Monday morning. Didn't even wait for the first bar to close. WTF?
Management: none. complete insanity
Psychology:  This trade is TOXIC AS F*. 


NVDA +49% from last week

This post sat in my drafts, but was placed last week.

Daily setup: Gap above multiday downtrend, on important market gap up day.
Entry/playDidn't chase runaway train (even though it would have paid...), waited for pivot. 
Management
Psychology: Teriffic. 

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