TSM pays again

I don't pay enough attention to TSM, but when it catches my screeners it often does really solid gains for me. Meanwhile markets are inside and looking weak.

Today earnings gap to new ath's. Caught it quick and packed it up.

wrong timing

As of 12 noon, all the top 10 gaps up (sorted by run rate) are trading below their opening price. Profit taking. 

Without the wisdom of retrospect, on the open BIDU gap looked great. I got calls on narrow spread, but then the spread widened like crazy. I stopped 1 bar too late, but otoh I tried to give it a little room (but not to day's low, which would have only been worse). 

Tried the QQQ puts, which (with retrospect) was the right trade, wrong time. I tried to give that one room and ate way too much (today exp), while being initially even more wrong and above day high, the trade was down after that. I don't think I would have tried a short at that point though as it based above day highs. Anyway, a huge loser. 

Checking back on JNPR, that fqer isn't helping any. 

Max week loss at this point, so JNPR rides, but I'm done for the week.

premkt Wednesday

Lots of gaps up today, but they're mostly off of bottoms or middles. Market is set to open up again. Shorts are giving up, but longs aren't coming in? 

I held JNPR calls overnight and hope to get my move today. Not sure I'll take another trade until that starts to shape up.

Definitely need to study the action of these that gap off of bottoms. Is oversold bounce the trade of the day?

big ouch!

Just to bite my butt after this morning's grand opining about when to give room... I gave room, I got burned, on an up is down and down is up day. Literally. See charts. (profit taking on both sides)

RIVN reversed haarrrd and stopping the back half above the first pivot hurt my pride. That's why we take small positions, people! Should I have flipped this long? NO. That's not my play. I get burned trying to bottom fish. Even though, I would have loved to catch the right side of a trend like that.

JNPR is the one that really burns. The spread...THE SPREAD... I was "too smart" to take a stop, and then suddenly it's too late (#rlly?). It didn't pop with the market buying, but it didn't fall apart. It's Tuesday. I took it home against better wisdom. BEH tomorrow this goes to 37.2 and beyond.

shorts are bailing out, but the bulls aren't buying

My eternal question: what is the cause of the up-is-down-and-down-is-up phenomenon?

New thinking: On a day that looks like bear, but down is up, that is shorts bailing out/covering. That doesn't mean that bull setups will work... that requires bulls to buy.

So, this phenomenon would happen in a bearish climate, when the bears take profits, sending weak stocks up. But it's still a bearish climate, so bullish setups are also subject to profit taking which sends strong stocks down.

Solved!

letting winners run thoughts

Recently (and perpetually), I've pondered about when to trade tight and when to give room. Yesterday I had 2 trades that were "right" on premise, and I gave them room, but when they started to finally develop in my direction I cut them short.*

I have 2 general thoughts on that:
1. It didn't behave right in the first place so I shouldn't trust it too much when it barely does the "right" thing (so take small loss/gain instead of giving room again). This is my prevailing mode.
2. Meir Barak who says, "I trust it will go up/down" based on the way the setup is supposed to play out. He sometimes eats it big on this, but sometimes when it shapes up again he'll double into it and rake it in.

How should I decide? In general, I'm taking a relativity view on it. If my long setup / calls isn't playing out especially when the market or other tickers are, it makes sense to me to play it tight. OTOH, if we're discussing it, it's already done "not what it should have" so how do I view it in comparison to others and ultimately... at what point should I continue to give it room and at what point should I tighten stops?

Obv, stops always need to be in logical places. I'm having a feeling like I want to try to give these more room even after I've already given them room. Ex: I let it go against me 20%, now it's only 5% against me and I'm tempted to cut it. Should I let it ride? 

Ultimately, I guess it all depends on the climate of the market in that moment. I hate missing big winners, but I can't afford the big losers. So I guess that's my answer.. I have to cut the losers, even at the expense of the fomo.

*Looked at another way, I had the wrong entry. I should cut tightly and potentially reenter but never give room. This is the negative of a cash account. I can't always re-enter so I need to have protection but still play the odds.

mkt fail day

Today futures way down. It is a comfort to be a daytrader and come in flat, with cash and opportunities to work with. I closed it green, but far off the high NVDA gave me.

NVDA was my best pick. I was in too big and traded chicken (spreads), +15% on oversize is ok. Peace.

Should have stopped there. But my brain got a bull bias and I looked at FB hammer around the level and grabbed long, instant fail, and jumped short too fast. It went hard against me, and on the way back down I stopped like a chicken! Held through pain and then didn't stick around for the profit? But otoh, not willing to go back to pain so closed on downtrend break. 

FB wasn't in my screeners. Setup was ok, but do I allow myself to trade this, not from my screeners?