Friday, September 20, 2019

NFLX +82%

Daily setup:  Break down sloppy bearish base
Entry/play: New day low later morning
Management: Small position and initial tight stop on today expiration. As soon as it started moving I trailed stop. I was looking for a dump, and it did more of a bleed, so both halves stopped on trailed stops vs target.
Psychology: Coming into this trade with a sort of surprisingly big loss on MRK. I wanted to take a bigger position here but I stopped myself. Had to NOT revenge, but rather to use sane risk management logic. Account destruction is enemy #1
It made me nervous a few times, but I stayed firm with my stops. Would have liked to get more (like a target), but most of all I got my account back green which is satisfying.

Over the next half hour, NFLX kept melting toward my (ambitious) T1. Even though it was a steady melt, looking at it with options expiring today, I have no regrets over trading MY rules. I got my piece. And peace.


MRK -47%

Daily setup: Break above bear flag near highs (see daily chart)
Entry/play: New day high later morning
Management: Today's expiration, so it needs to do my thing right away bc time decay. Initial stop was high and it stopped pretty quickly. Note 2c spread on 20c option, plus paid up for breakout... so I ate almost 50%. That's a CLEAR reason to take small size on Friday/today expiration.
Psychology: Good. Disappointed, but even despite ugly looking % loss it was not a big $ loss. That's how you do it! Risk management.



Daily chart

Thursday, September 19, 2019

psychology: take those profits!

Right Way Options youtube channel has some great content. The Morning Market Prep videos help focus me. This excellent psychology lesson about taking profits should be reviewed.
Taking Profits - When, where, how! Live breakout session.

psychology post: remaining contentedly calm

I follow and admire the trader Mark Melnick. His Newsbeat trading room (of which I am intermittently a member) and his YouTube Newsbeat videos (which I watch most days) have been very instructional for me.

The way he understands trader psychology and coaches his followers about improving it is--I have to say it--really loving. Sure, he drums up business for his room, but I also believe he really cares. His lessons should be reviewed over and over.

Review these for example:
Newsbeat Live Happiness
Newsbeat Show #421 7 Key Trading Psychology Issues To Solve!

Thank you Mark Melnick.

MSFT +40%. Study this textbook trade

Daily setup: Multi-week box breakout, so near all time highs
Entry/play: 1 min new high
Management: Initial stop below day low, quickly moved to below entry bar. First half on p/l target. Second half on squeezed up stop.
Psychology: Smooth as butter! When I trade my setup, my rules all work. This is how it's done!


For reference, the daily chart:

BABA lotto calls against fomo +90%

Daily setup: Preempting huge box breakout
Entry/play: lotto calls yesterday when it came back above the level I was watching
Management: I've been stabbing at this and getting nicked (or worse), but I could not stand the thought of not being involved if it broke out. So yesterday I put a smidgen of money into lotto calls. Sold on random-ish targets this morning.
Psychology: Excellent. I'm not even sorry I wasn't in bigger, because I went through the fed with this position yesterday. Lotto plays are win-win-win. It's small enough money that if it goes to zero I'm not hurt. But, it keeps me involved so I don't do something stupid bc fomo. And, if it goes up, I make money. This is a very good way for me to handle fomo.


Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Important Trading Reminders. FOCUS

WAIT for a pivot. Stop against the pivot.

ALWAYS TAKE STOPS
Every time I yank a stop I regret it. I'd rather have the opposite: regret the minority of times it doesn't save my butt.

Account destruction is enemy #1. Even worse than missed gains.

It doesn't matter what I leave on the table.
Do MY trade and take MY piece.

Stick to system. On hot days it pays BIG. Other days it contains losses. There will be losses, but remember there are HOT days.

Chill Out! I know how to trade. Review lekachim. Keep my cool. Don't trade like a jerk.

Take my piece. And peace.

ROKU +53%

Daily setup: bear flag breakdown
Entry/play: short after 1 min pivot
Management: This went FAST. I trailed a stop and kept squeezing it down. Made good gains, but coulda'shoulda held for my price target, which would have amounted to about 100% gain on the option. (Much later in the day, it went to about 600% my entry price, but realistically, there's no reason I would have been in at that point.)
Psychology: Got my piece. And peace.


BABA doesn't love me back ... -24%

Daily setup: nms
Entry/play: move over 179.2. Small size.
Management: Set a 25% target, and I yanked the order because it wasn't "enough" money. Small positions give small gains. Don't I know that? It missed my raised target by a few cents. Then I did "the terrible cascade of events" where I lower stop and give it too much room. ESPECIALLY WHEN ITS NOT MY SETUP! Can't give room to underachievers.
Psychology: Bummed, but not damaged. I wish BABA loved me as much as I love BABA.

**Since I can't stand to think of missing the breakout on this 3 month pattern, I'm putting literally $18 into 2 Sep20 185 calls. Maybe this kind of lotto play is how to feed my FOMO without kicking myself in the head.


Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Losing day stream of consciousness lessons

Took a hit to my account today. What happened?

1. No great setups today.
Down-size positions when not my setup (nms).

2. AMD was not my setup. I'm ok that I played it, but should have gone smaller. I got too sucked in by the way the first min bar ran strongly. 💥

3. KHC was more of my setup, but the spread was massive and even with small size I should have passed.💥

4. After AMD loss, I should have packed it up ❕ and not even stabbed at KHC.
**This was a case of money burning a hole in my pocket. I should remember to keep my money cool for later. ❕

5. I moderated myself, not trading for revenge (meaning, not stubbornly holding to make back what AMD took). So I'm pleased that I maintained the sense to trade KHC independent of other burns.✅

Psychologically, I'm bummed to have this down day. But I'm not devastated. My account is ok. I'm ok to be humbled by the market once in a while.

Most of all I need to take these lessons and learn. I can't sustain 35% losses vs 20% winners. How can I lose smaller?
PASS ON BIG SPREADS should be rule #1. Big spreads make worse entries and siiick losers. Avoid.
STAY SMALL IF NMS. Not my setup sometimes pays, but the patterns don't play out the same. Take small positions so I can still be involved, but moderate the risk.


KHC -37%

Daily setup: Gap below flag (of big run off bottom)
Entry/play: 1 min, watch level 2, tried to preempt new day low
Management: Initially, half stop above entry area and half stop above day high. After the base developed more, I moved the whole position stop down to above the base.
Psychology: Ok. I thought it was a good enough play (of course, after the fact, even though the gap down below flag was valid, the run up had been very strong). Took smaller size. Ate it.


AMD - ouch! -27%

Daily setup: gap up on volume - not a breakout. nms?
Entry/play: new 1 min high.
Management: This being not my setup, I shouldn't have assumed my entry techniques would work. And I should NOT have taken the size I took. Stop half below nearby premarket level. Stop half below day low.
Psychology: Ok, surprisingly. Super bummed to lose, and sort of big. Disappointed I lost bigger than I like to. But not sorry to get out as it got worse and worse.





Monday, September 16, 2019

AAPL +9%

Daily setup: Eh... Not my setup.
Entry/play: New 1 min high
Management:  Stop below low was pretty far, so initial stop below the 9:31 pivot bar. After 9:38 drop, I wasn't loving it. When that low held (9:40) I moved stop to below that area (not much of a difference, but...). Then trailed stop up for surge. 9:52 bar just barely didn't hit my target so I took off the first one a smidge below, but didn't want to give back T1. Didn't really want to give back anything, so I moved my stop up more and the remaining 2 stopped on the pivot exactly. That's going to happen sometimes.
Psychology: Say it again and again:
ALWAYS TAKE STOPS
Every time I yank a stop I regret it. I'd rather have the opposite: regret the minority of times it doesn't save my butt.
So, while I missed the next surge, I got my piece. And peace.



Update. 100% no regrets.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Spiral of Doom video



Interesting analysis of psychology. Jump in around 20:00 for the heart of the matter.

My biggest takeaway, trading mindframe should be contented, hopeful, optimistic. 
Slipping into negative emotions clouds thinking, perpetuates bad trading and spiraling doom leads to despair.


I am not affiliated with the guy who did the video or his business in any way, nor do I trade forex.

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