Thursday, June 22, 2023

option sweeps "information"

Today is the second time in a few days that someone in "the other discord" (not my main pod) has tried to make a case that a stock will move based on some option sweep they saw. I don't understand the importance of an options sweep vs focusing on the normal price/volume information of the stock. The people who tout the options sweep can not sufficiently explain what might be actionable about it. I continue to ignore it.

Today's person was funny because, though he couldn't explain why I should care about an options sweep, he did go a long way to telling me that people pay for his mentorship and he doesn't need to give away information for free...and that someday I'll come crying (!) to him wanting him to mentor me.  L-O-fking-L!

Amusement of the day and a reminder if I ever needed yet another reason I hope to never have to work in an office and have coworkers ever again! Motivation!

This morning I started with a loss on DDOG. In retrospect I held it too long against hope, but on the other hand, I *had to* get out there or else tragedy. 

Simultaneously OXY wasn't doing much to help my situation. The spread there was wide and I didn't want to take a stop. I had a stop at 57.18 bc premarket level. Thankfully I was able to get 3/4 of the position off at b/e and lose the spread on the rest. It continued to my pl target and beyond not much later, but [STUDY] what should I do in that situation? I was in a bad situation and I had a chance to get out b/e. But if it was shaping up in my direction again, should I not hold it just in case? Where would my stop have been. I don't really regret taking off half at b/e, stopping another 25% and trying to ride the last 25% for more. It didn't work. I was focusing my attention elsewhere (AMZN) anyway.

ABNB - not much to say here. I got an alert to "go check" but I saw it moving so strongly I jumped on the 1min without looking carefully at the daily. Of course it dropped against me immediately after chasing a nms. Lucky to get 90% out ~b/e. Ate it on the last bit, and of course it ran back up immediately, but I didn't look back. Deserved that burn.

AMZN made my day. I anticipated a big move and went farther otm to get more contracts for same $. That worked great here and I was able to get partials off very well. The add was ill-advised. And most of all, esp on a Thursday, I should have just taken more off at the 100%+ and not tried to go for the next target as aggressively in an "eh" market environment. I went back almost to b/e on the remaining contracts before it perked up again into the close -- but I lost time. In retrospect, of course, I should have captured early gains and gotten my personal time back instead of sweating it all afternoon.






Wednesday, June 21, 2023

multiple strikes for same position

 Was up nicely on my account today at one point. Then got "cute" and tried nms on (guess...?) 0dte SPY. Gave half back. Worth it? Maybe, for the potential it had? Update: it did play out later for coulda shoulda.

Let's focus on GOOGL. It was gapping down below trendline, but still in the base, arguably. So when the market was holding on at the open and GOOGL did that big reversal I tried a long. I think it was a decent case, but that was not my intended trade. Took the loss, then did enter my intended trade for a winner. 

Here's today's experiment and thoughts. I took the 122 puts and the 121 puts. I took 10 of each, so the 121 position had less starting capital in it. In the "normal" profit range (see here, 20-40%), the gains were similar. If I put the same $ in each, I'd have similar $ gains. If I can take more contracts at a farther otm strike, I have more options for scaling/holding, and if it goes really far the % gain will amplify. 

That's great if I get a big move. What about last week in LEN. I thought it was going to be a big breakout. I got 118s to start with and 120s later. A little hard to compare, but over there the 118s went well into the money and the 120s barely. So the 118s paid well, and if I had only had the 120s it wouldn't have been a great trade.

My conclusion from those 2 trades is that it is a good idea to take 2 strikes in some shape or form. Should I combine with multiple expirations? I don't really want to be holding/swinging anything (at this point in my career) so should I do equal number or equal dollar allocation? And, I'm going to have to really be decisive about levels. Today I panicked and tried to take off partials of both the GOOGL calls, but I couldn't get the order to execute like I thought it should have. I think I had done the same thing for the LEN calls, and it did work. I'll go back and see what I overlooked in a panic that didn't execute. 

I have a learning curve for this, but it has some promise!



Tuesday, June 20, 2023

just flat

Start from the end... in retrospect on this day, it was only somewhat a clockwork day. I took those 20% targets. I took stops (vs yanking them, but need to work on placement/philo). I quit when I should without going on tilt... is that the consolation of the day? ... well, at least I didn't tilt?

I had a decent pick PDD. I don't mind the first trade I took. I don't mind I stopped where I did. I like that I reentered. But I took the second trade scared. I need to either hold for targets or take very tight stops. That last exit was wishy-washy. I shouldn't stop in the middle. I should take the extreme, or give it reasonable (if painful?) room. The halfway stop is just a waste.

AMZN was off plan, inside day, I chased (while inside!! cardinal sin). That's actually the one I should be regretting. 

Trading SPY 0dte is also not usually my best move. It's a lazy trade. I should be looking for relative weakness. That trade was 20% my usual size, but helped me recover.

Why would I spit at this day? I went into the first PDD trade too big(bottom row), and all the subsequent gains only almost recovered that. I'm down $9 on the day, I'm calling it flat. Seems tempting to try to jump back into something and go green, but I need to focus on trading my plan, which I have already strayed from. My pick/s are played out. I already had one lapse in reason. Calling it a day.






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