BABA f*ing lucky +8%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: Tradenet pick
Entry/play: Meir Barak call
Management: I didn't take Meir's stop. Held against day high. Got really fucking lucky, then took it off for half at p/l target and half on squeezed stop
Psychology: Bad. I shouldn't count on getting lucky. That's how losses happen. I was in "too big to fail" which is greed, which is how accounts blow up. Don't wait for luck.

BYND 4%. Stop too tight (fear)

Daily setup: Meir Barak pick (generally, within daily inside day, failure to break above)
Entry/play: Meir Barak entry
Management: Trailed stop down. Second stop was a few cents too tight.
Psychology: I'm glad I didn't go for broke. Need to grab gains. But I wish I was able to catch that move to 108 that I hoped for T1.

Greed is for losers

I had a few-day losing streak. I should blog the losers of course, but I'll teach the lesson instead.
Greed leads to losses. Greed makes me wish for more, when I should take it. Greed makes me give stops too wide and lose too much on losers. Greed is for losers.

It started with NFLX on 1/14, which dropped a few dollars before I could even get a stop under it. Instead of just taking the 40% loss, I stopped only half and tried to hold the rest. Over several days, I passed on the opportunity to take "only" 40% loss again. Until today, I had to really eat it for a 90% loss. Why not just take my chances on the last 10% and see if maybe something works out. THAT IS THE BAD ATTITUDE THAT STARTED THIS MESS. It is toxic to shift to a "luck mentality."

How will I turn this around?
I must not trade tomorrow.
Monday market is closed.
Tuesday assess my mindset.

SPY -32%. A waste.

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: After massive daily runup, bearish engulfing yesterday (Friday). Today inside day. Looking to short
Entry/play: Near day high and premkt high, spy stalled. short (today exp) for reversal.
Management: Initial stop ndh. Trailed down. It kept holding vwap, and then stopped me on a reduced stop.
Psychology: This is a case of money burning a hole in my pocket. This 32% loser was only -$12, and I wouldn't take this play with a bigger size. On the other hand, definitely I could have kept my $12 if I didn't succumb to money burning a hole in my pocket. Just say no to money burning a hole.

ROKU +40%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: looking for daily breakdown
Entry/play: after opening wobble, it started to break ndl. I missed that, so waited for a bounce and got a good entry on the bounce.
Management: Initial stop above day high, quickly trailed down. It briefly broke the daily breakdown level I was wanting and I hoped for a real sick dump. I trailed down my stop. When it didn't dump, I had to decide: am I going to squeeze, or give it room? And I remembered... GREED GETS LOSSES. so I squeezed the stop and do not regret it.
Psychology: I love how I traded this.

BABA -14%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: Gap up (extended), above doji bar
Entry/play: waited for pb, bought strength
Management: initial stop below day low, but it didn't feel strong so I stopped half much higher.
Psychology: Fine. Annoyed for a loser but just a "cost of business" loser.

Friday, 1/10 trade narrative

I came in Friday with GS and NVDA positions. Last piece of each.
NVDA gapped up and let me out for a profit. +38% on the total trade
GS didn't help me. -6%

Then I took a new trade, AVGO puts which dropped and then ate me up while it chopped. I stopped before it dropped out again. Can't break the rules. Greed=losses. So I took -14%

Overall week +31%, in the form of 2 bigger up days, 3 tiny down days, and really a lot of frustration.

Greed makes losses

No charts today, just narrative. 

Opening trade, NVDA prime candidate. Opening bar ran like crazy and I bought 1 call against fomo. After it pulled back and pivoted, I loaded the rest of a pretty big position. I got out of the first 1/3 great, second 1/3 marginally undisciplined but disappointing. The last third I held beyond reason. Greed makes losses.

Lesson learned the millionth time: It's better to stop for pain, because a stock that isn't "behaving" will bring even more pain.

Took that last piece home. 

Meanwhile, I bought 1 GS call. It went to within 6 cents of my target. That happened while I was in the grocery parking lot. Couldn't adjust conditional orders. I set a limit, but it missed and never came back. Greed makes losses, I held it to break even and then took it home.

Oddly specific lesson I've learned before: When stock gets near the target, and I'm not home to adjust orders, just take it the F* off! That's the trader life, that I can make money and also have a life. But I have to take the money.

So today I was at one point up 15% and at one point down 15%. Closed at -0.67%. Tomorrow I'm going to need some luck. Both these options I took home are tomorrow expiration.

10 trade review

I have placed 10 trades in 2020.
W/L count exactly .5
10 trade net account p/l +19.31%

Sentiment: FRUSTRATED.
Of course! a 50% w/l count is frustrating, even if I'm up.
I like how I'm trading. I like the picks, I'm generally sticking to my trusted setups. I'm doing a great job waiting for pivots, taking gains, and a pretty good job stopping against pivots. This is basic level discipline.

My emotions are stable. I feel rational. I've had 2 big winning days and 3 small loser days.

How do I achieve better results? Maybe rethinking some position mangement. I feel like with my winners I'm leaving a lot on the table, and then my losers catch up with me. I feel if I had bigger account/positions, I could leave a runner on, where now I need to lock in everything.

I like my position sizing, generally 2 equal $ positions. I would still like to consider conviction sizing, but I don't have good clarity yet on how that looks.

Yesterday was a particularly frustrating day, followed by an eating binge. Can't do that. Need to maintain discipline in all areas. Need to stick to best nutrition #vegetapill #noaddedsugar. Need to work out 4-6 times/week. Need more steps. All of these:
-trading discipline
-food discipline
-workout discipline
are my perpetual struggles and also I feel they are the key to everything I want.
Good health, sharp brain, trading profits.

To work on
Consistent discipline in my 3 key areas

LEN -33%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap up against bear bar
Entry/play: after opening wobble, established uptrend, I bought ndh/whole#
Management: Initial stop hit quickly after b/o fail. bounced off vwap for ndh, tightened stop. Last piece stopped on worst-case stop.
Psychology: Ugh. What was wrong with this trade? The melt was on lower volume and I gave it too much room. Simultaneously, market melted back toward day lows (at market ath, though).

WBA lovely +20%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap way down
Entry/play: short after pivot.
Management: Initial stop day high. Near day low, took a price target, then squeezed stop.
Psychology: Of course I wish I took more off at the price target, and then maybe given a wider stop to get to T2, which it did reach. But I got a nice piece.

SQ loser -25%, then revenge loser, another -38%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap up into ma tangle
Entry/play: After initial pivot and surge, waited for another pullback then bought calls next surge.
Management: Stopped below signal bar. F! Then it based just like BABA yesterday and surged again. But meanwhile, the market started dropping out hard. I thought this would reject the daily ma tangle so I took a small put position after bullish pb/pivot and I ate that one too, including giving it too much room.
Psychology: Really bummed to not still have my calls when it finally ran. Looking at the chart, I picked the wrong stop, by just a few cents. I feel like sometimes I'll eat those and sometimes I'll be really glad to stop, so I need to comfort myself that I did my thing correctly but it didn't work this time. However, there was NO good reason to take the revenge put. I should have waited for a new long signal instead of rushing into puts.

Gave back my MU gains. Booo.

MU beauty +31%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap up
Entry/play: very strong open, buy above 1st 1min candle
Management: Initial stop below 1 min candle. Price target, then trailed/squeezed
Psychology: Good. Dropped hard after my final piece and I'm glad to not ride those...even if it went bonkers higher after that, I got PEACE.

BABA +25%. Gut trade

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: Volume screen mover. The daily setup is NMS.
Entry/play: Volume mover caught my attention. Used premarket levels (.42) for bo level. Opening bar down big volume, second bar hard reversal up to .5. Waited for another pb, and on strong run back up I preempted ndh.
Management: Had to go down again, and after some minor bouncing, I added on strong green bar, then trailed/squeezed stops.
Psychology: No regrets!! I got my first sell a smidge early, then got nearly top tick on the rest. I got MY PIECE. PEACE!

Musing about stock drama

What I'm looking to trade is a 1 minute surge. Drama!
I want to be in and out fast, and within the opening ~30 minutes of trade. So I'm looking for stocks that are going to make a profit-worthy surge out of the open.
Which stocks might move like that?
Something with a catalyst. This is showing that there is a "rationale" that people are reacting to.
Something opening out of a range. This is showing that something significantly different is happening. These stocks might dump quickly. I can't jump on those trains. I need a rational pivot. Or pass.
What constitutes a pivot? If the stock gaps down, I want to see a temporary move up. Not just dump. I want to see the shorts cover, then buying exhaust, then I'm in for the renewed selling.
Opposite for gap up. I want to see temporary move down. Not moon launch. I want profit takers to get out, selling exhausts. Then I'm in with new buyers.
What constitutes "drama"?
Today I thought the market gapping down against/below strong bull bar was sufficient drama. But yesterday's strong bull bar was all time high. So maybe gap down below all time high isn't sufficiently scary for drama.

GS 2 trades for net +8% (based on p/l)

TRADE 1: -2%
Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup:Entry/play: gap against bull bar, back into base
Management: waited for tradable pivot, entered arguably too early, could have waited for a cent or two below signal bar.
Psychology: OK. I think I should have taken half off when it stalled at ndl, or squeezed more on half... in retrospect. But, glad I was trailing my stop. Not to trail it would have been HOPE, and I don't trade on hope anymore. Just system, even if the system has nuance.


TRADE 2: +12% on luck
Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap against bull bar, back into base
Entry/play: after getting stopped out, it gave a bear candle, so I tried to go short again against that bar. But I took calls instead.
Management: Tight AF stop. Above vwap squeezed on half. Trailed up other half.
Psychology: Frustrating. On one hand, frustrating to take the calls when I meant for puts. On the other hand, I was blessed to make money on that instead of what would have been a big loser. Thankful for luck here.

NVDA -38%

Trade my best setups or PASS.
WAIT for pivots to stop against.
Take MY PIECE. Peace.

Daily setup: gap below bull bar. Relative weak day yesterday (market new ath). Overall, not my best setup, in that it never left the base yesterday, and gap down was still within noise area.
Entry/play: short after pb... top tail at premarket resistance for pivot. Should have waited 2c more to get below signal bar, would have kept me out of this trade.
Management: stop above signal bar
Psychology: ok. followed my plan. Small position so big %loss was not big $loss.

AMD +19%. Peace.

Daily setup: 123, gap.
Entry/play: waited for pivot
Management: Stop below pivot. P/L target, and squeeze stop.
Psychology: Terrific! Great start to the year. Healthy trade, green right away, straight to target, then held my gains.
After I sold, it dropped below most of the stops I had along the way, but then it went bonkers. That is not a regret. I got MY PIECE. If I had extra money, I see where I could have re-entered, but I never should have tried to hold. I did it exactly right for me. Good form. Healthy psychology. PEACE.

Happy New Year 2020

This year my trading vision will be 2020. Cliche of the year, but it is my goal.

I want this to be the year that I solidify my skills into a top profiting trading year, using good form and healthy psychology.

How?

Trade my best setups or PASS. (good form)

WAIT for pivots to stop against. (good form)

Take MY PIECE. Peace. (healthy psychology)

FB money burning a hole in my pocket loses 41%

Daily setup: long term trendline break
Entry/play: surge, pullback near VWAP. I entered wrongly. I tried to preempt the VWAP bounce and priced it with the money I had left to trade with. I should have waited for stochastics to cycle all the way down. If I had, I would have lost less or I hope I would have seen the dip and passed altogether.
Management: first stop was sort of random, since I didn't buy against a decent pivot. Second stop was against a pivot buy my trade trigger was set wrong so I sold it even farther down.
Psychology: first trade today was huge winner. I went small into this one by force of funds availability, but I should learn from that lesson, after an amazing trade, go small and don't ruin the day. I got what I deserved here for playing it wrong. I'm just glad I didn't ruin my day bc of it.

CAG +86% and left sooooo much behind

Daily setup: gap above box on earnings
Entry/play: 1 min new high
Management: This surged so hard I couldn't edit my order. Front half filled before I could edit the order. Second half I took off WAY too soon. I bought .3, sold .45 and .7. It went pretty smoothly to at least 1.7 as of this moment. 16% stock surge almost straight up.
Psychology: I got my piece, and I'm so happy. I couldn't have anticipated it going this bonkers.

The way to hold this trade is NOT to hold and hold. I know those can go painfully against me. The way to have held this trade would have been to shave off smaller chunks.

FDX +19% feel good trade

Daily setup: gap below box
Entry/play: short after flush and pullback
Management: I didn't jump on the 1 min entry. I waited for VWAP test and for stochs to cycle. When it didn't quite make my T1, I tightened stop on half. When it made ndl, I squeezed.
Psychology: This trade felt terrific! I was green almost immediately. Had a very clear pivot to stop against. I like how I waited.

I'm back! MU +5%

Daily setup: gap up (extended)
Entry/play: On purpose I arrived at my desk a few minutes in, so as not to get involved in Monday opening chop. Nice entry: after thrashing around, it tested whole number then bought the move above.
Management: I hoped for a 20% p/l target. I could have gotten 12%, but I tried to hold on. At first with a wider stop, but after an uncomfortable retest of vwap I squeezed my stop. Update: after another 15 minutes of chop, I could have gotten my target.
Psychology: No regrets about not waiting out the chop, that could have gone either way. On the other hand, I'm not in the mood lately to take singles (10%), but that's really what I should do for parnassa. AND maybe what I REALLY should do is press the one minute trend with a squeezed stop and not give any leeway on the front half.

These things go together. I can't take smaller parnassa then give wider stops. If I tighten my game, I need to tighten both sides.

M accidental calls paid off +22% b"h

Daily setup: Melnick pick for a short 2/10 conviction
Entry/play: I jumped the gun on his entry. He didn't enter, actually (imperfect setup), and I bought calls accidentally instead of puts.
Management: Initial panic, then set stop and a target, and squeezed a win out of it.
Psychology: BARUCH HASHEM, I can't tolerate any losers right now and He gave me a winner. I can't call this anything but hashgacha pratit.

BYND not my setup! -39%

Daily setup: nms. none, really, Meir Barak was talking about it and I got too cute
Entry/play: short after test ndh and bounce back down (lacking volume)
Management: yanked stop, gave it too much room, it surged against market drop and I kept holding. Poor technique in every way
Psychology: Bad. NMS, gave it too much room. gave up most of my DIS gains on this stupid thing.

Repeat after me... I can't trade just anything... I can't trade just anything...

DIS +45% textbook

Daily setup: gap above flag
Entry/play: long after pivot
Management: trail stop, tightening near target. Exited on tight stop, then on raised/tightened stop.
Psychology: Good. Textbook beautiful trade.

SPY -6% peace

Daily setup: strong day surge. today expiration
Entry/play: above high resistance level
Management: trail stop
Psychology: A loser can still be peace. Yes I missed the move I wanted, but I also did not want to do the pullback, which was an unknown at the time. If anything, I should have waited on the entry. But most of all: small loss. lesson learned. peace.

NVDA +34% peace

Daily setup: Gap above high box
Entry/play: 1 min new high after pivot
Management: trail stop, p/l target then squeeze stop
Psychology: good. I got my piece and peace. If I was going to give it a little more room I could have had more, but that's not my play right now. My play is for gains, and peace.
AND, it was so nice to get solid gains, early, and go have a day.

psychology / focus

I feel like I've been floundering recently. A lot of greed/fear (LOSING mentality) and not using the "got my piece" WINNING mentality.

So, I'm concentrating my focus. I'll say it right now, I'm going to leave a lot on the table. I'm not going to get homeruns. I'm not going to try for homeruns. I'm going to try for success.

That means losers don't hurt. Targets are taken. Return to peace.

JWN -18%

Daily setup: gap to top range after flush
Entry/play: 1 min run up after drop
Management: didn't take hod which was box resistance. Suffered the rest of the day and the rest of the crappy things I do.
Psychology: crap