Wednesday, September 25, 2019

BYND lotto from Monday, conclusion +54%

Daily setup: Lottos from Monday
Entry/play: WAY out of the money puts, this week expiration
Management: double or nothing. What I actually got was double on the first one, break even on the second one.
Psychology: Good. Lottos extinguish the fomo without putting me in danger.



Tuesday, September 24, 2019

ROKU -9% Sorry, but then not sorry

Daily setup: dead cat bounce
Entry/play: After it held second intraday low, bought surge off that box. I stopped by about 2 cents and was upset... until later!
Management: Initial stop below day low. I only had 1 call, but that would have been a pretty big loss. so I moved the stop to below the new 1 min box that was holding.
Psychology: Good. Bummed to lose. Not bummed to be long gone for the dump.

Update, ROKU in total freefall. 10:40am @102. Lesson about the futility of hope. ROKU was 150 five days ago.


AAPL +12%

Daily setup: Preempt bull pennant breakout
Entry/play: bounce off 1 min premkt support
Management: Initial stop below day low. Came close initially. When it looked to make a new high, I added, and raised stop. It got so close to my p/l target and stalled, so I took part 1 off a few cents early. Second surge stalled quickly so I raised stop. 9:50 surge got to the $ target I see on the chart, but I didn't raise my stop enough. (at 10:15 it went back close to day lows)
Psychology: Good. Sort of frustrating to miss targets, but NOT frustrating to contain losses. Today, this was my piece.

Lesson: TAKE MY PIECE.


Monday, September 23, 2019

Trading options in a cash account

I trade long options in a cash account.
  1. Since I don't have a margin account, I can do multiple trades each day/week without worrying about the pattern daytrader rule. 
  2. Options give good leverage for big gains, so I can still make serious progress in a small account.
  3. Cash trading puts a hard ceiling on how much I can trade each day. Once I'm out of cash, I'm done for the day.
  4. Options settle in 1 day. The next morning, I'm back in business with a fresh head.
Even when my account is >$25K I still plan to keep it a cash account. I will probably even keep my trading account small-ish, removing my gains into a separate account. I am comforted by this enforced discipline especially because I trade so "dangerously". It puts boundaries on me each day. It doesn't allow me to stab myself to death.


BYND lotto puts... too cute?

I left so much on the table with this morning's scalp. And then the market turned back down. And BYND can't even bounce off multi-week trendline. I don't want to miss the utter breakdown. I put $90 into 2 $120 puts for this week (@.45). I might kiss this money goodbye. Well, that's the point of lotto plays, isn't it? But it helps me not have FOMO and do something even more stupid.

UPDATE 1 hour later. I totally jumped the gun. These things are sinking fast. But that's why to go lotto and kiss the money goodbye vs do something stupid with big money.


BYND +28% left a LOT on the table

Daily setup: breakdown of 3 inside days
Entry/play: short after 1 min pullback
Management: I got in early, so had to hold to where I thought it could bounce. Stopping above that would have HURT. After it bounced where I thought and came back down, I added. Quickly reduced stop. Took p/l target and then squeezed stop, since it ran straight down while market was bouncing.
Psychology: Great. I left a lot on the table by squeezing stop, but that was the right thing to do. Spreads were huge, I was in mega-sized, and market was going against me. I like how I traded this mostly because it was a winner. If I had lost I would have said I was in too big... spreads too big... so I guess actually I got lucky. And when handed luck, I'm not upset to take my piece, and peace!


Friday, September 20, 2019

NFLX +82%

Daily setup:  Break down sloppy bearish base
Entry/play: New day low later morning
Management: Small position and initial tight stop on today expiration. As soon as it started moving I trailed stop. I was looking for a dump, and it did more of a bleed, so both halves stopped on trailed stops vs target.
Psychology: Coming into this trade with a sort of surprisingly big loss on MRK. I wanted to take a bigger position here but I stopped myself. Had to NOT revenge, but rather to use sane risk management logic. Account destruction is enemy #1
It made me nervous a few times, but I stayed firm with my stops. Would have liked to get more (like a target), but most of all I got my account back green which is satisfying.

Over the next half hour, NFLX kept melting toward my (ambitious) T1. Even though it was a steady melt, looking at it with options expiring today, I have no regrets over trading MY rules. I got my piece. And peace.


MRK -47%

Daily setup: Break above bear flag near highs (see daily chart)
Entry/play: New day high later morning
Management: Today's expiration, so it needs to do my thing right away bc time decay. Initial stop was high and it stopped pretty quickly. Note 2c spread on 20c option, plus paid up for breakout... so I ate almost 50%. That's a CLEAR reason to take small size on Friday/today expiration.
Psychology: Good. Disappointed, but even despite ugly looking % loss it was not a big $ loss. That's how you do it! Risk management.



Daily chart

Thursday, September 19, 2019

psychology: take those profits!

Right Way Options youtube channel has some great content. The Morning Market Prep videos help focus me. This excellent psychology lesson about taking profits should be reviewed.
Taking Profits - When, where, how! Live breakout session.

psychology post: remaining contentedly calm

I follow and admire the trader Mark Melnick. His Newsbeat trading room (of which I am intermittently a member) and his YouTube Newsbeat videos (which I watch most days) have been very instructional for me.

The way he understands trader psychology and coaches his followers about improving it is--I have to say it--really loving. Sure, he drums up business for his room, but I also believe he really cares. His lessons should be reviewed over and over.

Review these for example:
Newsbeat Live Happiness
Newsbeat Show #421 7 Key Trading Psychology Issues To Solve!

Thank you Mark Melnick.

MSFT +40%. Study this textbook trade

Daily setup: Multi-week box breakout, so near all time highs
Entry/play: 1 min new high
Management: Initial stop below day low, quickly moved to below entry bar. First half on p/l target. Second half on squeezed up stop.
Psychology: Smooth as butter! When I trade my setup, my rules all work. This is how it's done!


For reference, the daily chart:

BABA lotto calls against fomo +90%

Daily setup: Preempting huge box breakout
Entry/play: lotto calls yesterday when it came back above the level I was watching
Management: I've been stabbing at this and getting nicked (or worse), but I could not stand the thought of not being involved if it broke out. So yesterday I put a smidgen of money into lotto calls. Sold on random-ish targets this morning.
Psychology: Excellent. I'm not even sorry I wasn't in bigger, because I went through the fed with this position yesterday. Lotto plays are win-win-win. It's small enough money that if it goes to zero I'm not hurt. But, it keeps me involved so I don't do something stupid bc fomo. And, if it goes up, I make money. This is a very good way for me to handle fomo.


Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Important Trading Reminders. FOCUS

WAIT for a pivot. Stop against the pivot.

ALWAYS TAKE STOPS
Every time I yank a stop I regret it. I'd rather have the opposite: regret the minority of times it doesn't save my butt.

Account destruction is enemy #1. Even worse than missed gains.

It doesn't matter what I leave on the table.
Do MY trade and take MY piece.

Stick to system. On hot days it pays BIG. Other days it contains losses. There will be losses, but remember there are HOT days.

Chill Out! I know how to trade. Review lekachim. Keep my cool. Don't trade like a jerk.

Take my piece. And peace.

ROKU +53%

Daily setup: bear flag breakdown
Entry/play: short after 1 min pivot
Management: This went FAST. I trailed a stop and kept squeezing it down. Made good gains, but coulda'shoulda held for my price target, which would have amounted to about 100% gain on the option. (Much later in the day, it went to about 600% my entry price, but realistically, there's no reason I would have been in at that point.)
Psychology: Got my piece. And peace.


BABA doesn't love me back ... -24%

Daily setup: nms
Entry/play: move over 179.2. Small size.
Management: Set a 25% target, and I yanked the order because it wasn't "enough" money. Small positions give small gains. Don't I know that? It missed my raised target by a few cents. Then I did "the terrible cascade of events" where I lower stop and give it too much room. ESPECIALLY WHEN ITS NOT MY SETUP! Can't give room to underachievers.
Psychology: Bummed, but not damaged. I wish BABA loved me as much as I love BABA.

**Since I can't stand to think of missing the breakout on this 3 month pattern, I'm putting literally $18 into 2 Sep20 185 calls. Maybe this kind of lotto play is how to feed my FOMO without kicking myself in the head.


Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Losing day stream of consciousness lessons

Took a hit to my account today. What happened?

1. No great setups today.
Down-size positions when not my setup (nms).

2. AMD was not my setup. I'm ok that I played it, but should have gone smaller. I got too sucked in by the way the first min bar ran strongly. 💥

3. KHC was more of my setup, but the spread was massive and even with small size I should have passed.💥

4. After AMD loss, I should have packed it up ❕ and not even stabbed at KHC.
**This was a case of money burning a hole in my pocket. I should remember to keep my money cool for later. ❕

5. I moderated myself, not trading for revenge (meaning, not stubbornly holding to make back what AMD took). So I'm pleased that I maintained the sense to trade KHC independent of other burns.✅

Psychologically, I'm bummed to have this down day. But I'm not devastated. My account is ok. I'm ok to be humbled by the market once in a while.

Most of all I need to take these lessons and learn. I can't sustain 35% losses vs 20% winners. How can I lose smaller?
PASS ON BIG SPREADS should be rule #1. Big spreads make worse entries and siiick losers. Avoid.
STAY SMALL IF NMS. Not my setup sometimes pays, but the patterns don't play out the same. Take small positions so I can still be involved, but moderate the risk.


KHC -37%

Daily setup: Gap below flag (of big run off bottom)
Entry/play: 1 min, watch level 2, tried to preempt new day low
Management: Initially, half stop above entry area and half stop above day high. After the base developed more, I moved the whole position stop down to above the base.
Psychology: Ok. I thought it was a good enough play (of course, after the fact, even though the gap down below flag was valid, the run up had been very strong). Took smaller size. Ate it.


AMD - ouch! -27%

Daily setup: gap up on volume - not a breakout. nms?
Entry/play: new 1 min high.
Management: This being not my setup, I shouldn't have assumed my entry techniques would work. And I should NOT have taken the size I took. Stop half below nearby premarket level. Stop half below day low.
Psychology: Ok, surprisingly. Super bummed to lose, and sort of big. Disappointed I lost bigger than I like to. But not sorry to get out as it got worse and worse.





Monday, September 16, 2019

AAPL +9%

Daily setup: Eh... Not my setup.
Entry/play: New 1 min high
Management:  Stop below low was pretty far, so initial stop below the 9:31 pivot bar. After 9:38 drop, I wasn't loving it. When that low held (9:40) I moved stop to below that area (not much of a difference, but...). Then trailed stop up for surge. 9:52 bar just barely didn't hit my target so I took off the first one a smidge below, but didn't want to give back T1. Didn't really want to give back anything, so I moved my stop up more and the remaining 2 stopped on the pivot exactly. That's going to happen sometimes.
Psychology: Say it again and again:
ALWAYS TAKE STOPS
Every time I yank a stop I regret it. I'd rather have the opposite: regret the minority of times it doesn't save my butt.
So, while I missed the next surge, I got my piece. And peace.



Update. 100% no regrets.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Spiral of Doom video



Interesting analysis of psychology. Jump in around 20:00 for the heart of the matter.

My biggest takeaway, trading mindframe should be contented, hopeful, optimistic. 
Slipping into negative emotions clouds thinking, perpetuates bad trading and spiraling doom leads to despair.


I am not affiliated with the guy who did the video or his business in any way, nor do I trade forex.

Friday, September 13, 2019

BABA +9% but trading too big, too scared

Daily setup: Still looking for this break/run above 180 area. Officially, this is NOT my setup to preempt
Entry/play:
Management: Given that this is not my setup, I shouldn't be here and I know full well that my usual management tools need not apply. First of all I set a p/l limit order. On a 1 min scalp setup, initial stop should have been below day low or below trading pivot. Here I chose below premkt low (few cents below opening pivot). That saved my butt on the spike down then run back to day highs. Profit target got me out luckily well on first half. Then I trailed stop below pivots, but the option volatility really scared me. Stopped second half on manually trailed stop.
Psychology: In too big + today's expiration = trading scared. Opening chop clouded my thinking, so it's extra important to enter hard orders and not wing it. I would have been super bummed to have gotten stopped on the second day low, but must remember that stop would have been the thing that saved me from account destruction if it got worse.
Account destruction is enemy #1. Even worse than missed gains.




Thursday, September 12, 2019

psychology post: the problem with winning

The problem with winning is it gives too much confidence. I've had several good trades lately, and it almost scares me. Things are going so right. I'm good at following my rules when I'm right. I'm good at following my rules when I'm winning. My mortal downfall is being wrong. Especially dead wrong, when I enter a trade and it never goes green. If I'm wrong right away.

I know myself and soon I will start to jinx myself. It just takes that one bad trade to wipe out so much sweat. Interesting I refer to my downfall as "one bad trade". Because what is that really? A trade that doesn't go as I predicted isn't a "bad trade", that's part of business. 

One yanked stop is a BAD TRADE! And that's my own fault. It's destructive behavior.

I've worked on trading only my setup. I've worked on reviewing lekachim list (to the right) before market open. Now I need to work on eliminating my worst behavior: yanking stops. 

Yanking stops (or not placing them) is the single most destructive thing I do. It has literally obliterated my account(s) multiple times. 

Here are some tips to myself about using and not yanking stops. I've been talking to myself in the negative (don't), so I've tried to express these also in the positive, to remind myself the right thing to do.

Don't trade scared = trade more conservatively. Isn't it counter-intuitive? When I'm scared, I do the most incredibly destructive thing? No wonder I'm scared! I should be scared of myself, not of the market.
 + Don't trade wide spreads
 + Limit my position size
 + Give several days to expiration (ex: Wednesday move to next week, except lottos)
These are very simple and easy ways to be less scared. I shouldn't look at these techniques and think how it reduces my upside. I should look at these techniques and think about how it will help me not fry my account.

Don't ignore pivots = use pivots every time. 
 + Identify a valid pivot
 + Trade against a meaningful pivot
 + Stop beyond pivots
 + Stop beyond the pivot
 + Take the stop beyond the pivot
 + Have I made myself clear about stops and pivots?

DO cut my trades short. I think I get too stuck on my targets as if I'm some sort of genius. I'm not a F*ing genius. Keep some money. Scale out. Cut before my target vs giving nice money back. It's ok. I need to keep something, not hit homeruns. Maybe my target would eventually hit, but don't go through pain on that hope. Just take some off. PEACE.



BABA lotto calls +171%

Daily setup: Preemptive huge box breakout.
Entry/play: Lotto play means very small dollar size, out of the money calls, looking for a big fast move and willing to go to zero if it doesn't. Ex, this position was 6calls @.09 = $58 total.
Management: $176 looked like important level, tried to get a good entry. Wednesday buy for this Friday expiration. End of day I was down about 50%. Overnight news (equals luck) gapped the market, but my calls opened only break even. Some mid-morning news spiked everything and I got T1 (double, on half pos = 3 calls), so now I'm on free money. When it struggled with a top, I took off another 1 very near T2. Moved up stop to below volitility area and stopped the remaining 2.
Psychology: Good. The thing about the lotto is I've written off the money as I buy it, and hoping for at least a double. By definition with close expiration and out of the money, it's bound to melt fast. I like how I managed this trade especially because of the volatile spike that got me near some targets. I really hoped it would go out of the box so much stronger, but I got my piece (more than my usual % piece), and peace!



BUD +18% really lonely trade

Daily setup: Gap above box
Entry/play: new 1 min high
Management: initial stop below day low. Take half at p/l target. Then I realized I'm LITERALLY the only one in the trade. I bought 2, sold 1, and day volume was 3. So I squeezed stop hard.
Psychology: OK. This is my textbook setup. It behaved as I expected, except for low volume. I like how I traded it, even if it was small position, small $ gain, it was a decent % gain and that's how I need to trade.
Immediately after I sold, there was some news that spiked the whole market, but it didn't run to my target.



Wednesday, September 11, 2019

MU textbook 1 min trade +23% in 7 min

Daily setup: Gap above high flag
Entry/play: Trade above opening minute bar, using NEXT week calls.
Management: Initial stop below day low. Quickly move up to someplace more comfortable. Initial profit target 20%. Bracket order didn't execute like I expected, so I deleted and manual entered. Then squeezed stop on the rest.
Psychology: Beautiful. Strong opening move, I jumped on, got my piece. And peace. Now I have the rest of my day to be productive.



NTNX toxic trade conclusion +10%

Held over from previous day. Was actually serene about it overnight. I think that's only because I accepted I might lose it all.
So in the morning I let it develop instead of bailing on the initial drop.
I still traded scared the rest of the day. Shaving off profits and stopping too tight instead of letting it run. Total trade was about +10%.

This trade was TOXIC, in that I put too much at risk and rode it on hope. Completely not worth the grief.


Monday, September 9, 2019

NTNX taking home a loser

Daily setup: Gap up above pullback
Entry/play: jumped in too fast on a Monday morning. Didn't even wait for the first bar to close. WTF?
Management: none. complete insanity
Psychology:  This trade is TOXIC AS F*. 


NVDA +49% from last week

This post sat in my drafts, but was placed last week.

Daily setup: Gap above multiday downtrend, on important market gap up day.
Entry/playDidn't chase runaway train (even though it would have paid...), waited for pivot. 
Management
Psychology: Teriffic. 

Thursday, September 5, 2019

WYNN messy/lucky +50%

Daily setup: Gap up off double-bottom, but not out of the box
Entry/play: look to move up against pivot
Management: no fucking management
Psychology: Terrible. First problem was sub-optimal setup. Second problem was spread on option was 15-20% in the spread. I KNOW I YANK STOPS ON WIDE SPREADS. Conclusion: DON'T TRADE WIDE SPREADS. Ensuing trade was a nightmare on wheels. Only by total luck did I come out green here at all.


psychological blunders

When I last posted, I was doing great. Winning. Psychologically sound, disciplined trades.
I literally developed a nervous feeling that I was going to revert to old bad habits. I still traded well for another day or two, and then I imploded. All the old bad habits.


And then we had a family emergency. I'd like to say I took a week off, but (am I an addict?) I took a few small trades anyway. And for naught. Really bad decision to trade, and bad trades were made.

Today was a critical day. Account hurting. Need to reign myself back in and trade my best. Luckily I got a technically amazing market day. One overnight hold got rescued (WYNN), and today's NVDA trade was great.

To self: 
Chill Out! I know how to trade. Review lekachim. Keep my cool. Don't trade like a jerk.

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