moadim l'simcha

It's been a pretty intense holiday season this year, cutting my trading days but also helping me get a refresh. In general, though, this market churns my stomach. And I think it gets worse. Recent chag was Monday/Tuesday this week and I really expected to come back Tuesday night to see a massive crash. Coming M/T is SA/ST. I still can't rule out a 5% down day.

I've been trading hit and run, and I haven't been annotating or journaling. Skipping journaling is a bad habit to get into, but I'm going to skip out again today. 

Today my day was saved by an economic number that missed at 10:00 and gave a flash break down that helped me get out of a short I failed to take the target on. 

Market had a huge gap down/run up yesterday. Maybe about a 5% range. In a stronger market it would have been a nice bottom, but these days there IS NO BOTTOM. Everything looks like hell and acts like hell. Be skeptical of all rallies. 

I am developing an increasing really sick feeling about my long term portfolio which is in total pain. Really considering leaving the manager. Such a mismatched temperament. Am I getting near capitulation? Maybe yesterday could hold for a while. But the economy is still crap and getting worse. Fed still states it will hike, and expect pain. So... I'm expecting more pain. Ugh.

YESTERDAY

expensive penny

 I stopped out within 1-2 cents of day high, then it flushed out and hit all my targets. F-ker!

weekend update

Market has been "on de face!" Really bad, very strong down. The trading has been great, lots of strong trend days, but the trend is down and lots of pain out there.

My account is near a new big round number and I think I'm mentally struggling against it again. I hope this week I'll be able to cross and keep it.

Some charts. 

SPY 1 year, daily

SPY 5 year, weekly

Tonight I looked through the charts of each of the SP500 stocks. There's a lot of wreckage. Market trend is inarguably down.

another bf down day

Another big F* down day for the market. I hate this bear market. I'm suffering a lot in my long term account where I'm very mismatched temperamentally with what the manager is doing (ie, holding).

When will the market catch any form of a bid? Today is a "day 3" in my view, so could be a reversal day, except people are just dumping everything, abandoning every ship. 

It's Friday, 0dte, so I must hit and run. I'm looking to short new breakdowns that are not over extended, and I'm looking for overextended stocks that could bounce if the market does.

I left a lot on the table today, like yesterday. But on the other hand I had a great green day and the best week I've had in a really long time. Sunday night is Rosh Hashana and I have a lot of other things to focus on. PEACE!

TSLA... I'm always scared to short TSLA. Gapping below the 50mas, but chart is relatively strong in the past several weeks and the gap down is inside the pattern. This is one people will love to buy if there's a bounce. I gave it zero room. Went in small, took my pl on first trade of the day and got out.

Market looked like it might bounce for a minute, and GOOGL hammered strongly, so I tried the long. Didn't get the target, but not hanging around to find out if longs are going to follow through when there is a heavy weight on everything. 

After GOOGL stopped, it was clear to go short again. TSLA was overextended by then (no second try for me), but OXY set up. It was a bit of a tough trade. It didn't flush and the spread was wide. Took my bit and got out. 

PEACE!

Peace!

Yesterday there was a fed announcement and an already bad market sold off hard. Today, a flat-ish open. I looked for stock moves on volume that weren't already extended, or deep oversold ones to buy if there is strength. I also told myself to wait 3 minutes. None of this buy the first or second bar insanity.

AMD gap down below a mini consolidation. Room to go before the June low. Not day over day extended. AMD relative weakness to the market which barcoded for the first 6-7 minutes. Plan was to take 10%, 20%, runner. After taking 10%(ok, 9% after commissions, etc) the market started flushing and I decided instead of taking 20, to trail it with a very tight stop. Cascade selloff for the win. I squeezed my stop to trail the whole thing, and sold on the first sign of strength. 

Yes, there was more downside. But I'm glad I didn't sit through the chop. I got an amazing gain and I got it so easily. A bounce from a cascade selloff can sometimes rip your face off and I wanted to keep my gains so I didn't give ANY room. PEACE!!

Chicken!

I traded like a chicken today. I had all the right picks, all the right ideas. Building on my thoughts from yesterday about up days in a bear market I went for 

MU - short covering in an oversold stock

UAL - weakness in a weak sector

OXY - short the profit taking gap

But I cut all of them way too short, because I was scared!

ugh, later, coulda shoulda...

Bear market mantras

Below is the breakout I tried to play long this morning. It was (what I call...) hard work. That is the feeling that it's just not launching like it was "supposed to". It was a hard climb. It didn't make it to my target. And later I see it failed. 

This is what I want to remember about trading in bear markets: the pressure is down. Everything is heavy as if there is more gravity. Wet blanket on everything. It is a profit taking day for longs, because they are finally getting their chance. It is a stopping out day for shorts, buying to cover.

Breakouts will have no power and are likely to fail. 

Trapped longs will look to sell. A breakout could be manufactured/manipulated as a selling opportunity (realization as I am currently reading Reminiscences). 

On up days in a bear market: shorts will cover, taking profits by buying.

An up day in a bear market is not a wholehearted buying day. It is a short covering day or a profit taking day for longs. There is a lot of selling pressure into the strength (wet blanket on everything). On up days, breakdowns will also not work because it is a short covering (buying) day.

small relief

Yesterday a max loss day, today made it back and more but not before a heart attack. I keep trying to trade moves up. I should be skeptical of bull moves. 

Today I loved the setup on LVS and its one of the stocks I love to trade. I jumped in WAY too early and had serious pain (means, below where I should have stopped...oy!) before it came back and paid me. Even still, at the top, it was "hard work" and I took it off to protect gains rather than letting it really run. I still think it will hit my targets, but I'm out. 

Maybe this is what risk aversion feels like, but I'm apparently not averse to letting it go below my stop, I'm just averse to losing gains. This is literally the opposite of cut losses/run winners. I'm trading like an amateur. Shape up!! I'm much more skilled than that!

Was down maybe 30% at one point. Take profits at -6%, +3%, +9%, +61%, +41%.

Inv h&s ?

I'm terrible macroeconomist. Everyone is talking about retesting June lows, or worse.

My eye sees a potential head and shoulders bottom. Here's hoping, for the sake of long-term shareholders everywhere!

F*k and luck

I traded like an absolute wreck today and only BEH I came out flat on the day. It started with going in bigger than I told myself I would, and then adding. WTAF?!! On an extended setup!! On an inside market day!!! 🔨

I jumped in too early. I yanked the best stop. I would have stopped pretty near the top, but the order didn't trigger and then BARUCH HASHEM literally! it came back down and I still traded like a wreck but was able to get break even on the day. 

So, to phrase it in the positive voice: I must stick to MY BEST SETUP, and trade it SMALL size. I am not smarter than the market.🔨🔨🔨

only a few min later

Tight stop is the right stop

SQ, not my setup. At least I used good stop discipline. When it failed the ndl, I moved my stop down. Not sorry to take a tiny loss and not sit through the chop. Market also about 30 min very tight range. 

trading small

I'm trading small these days. Struggling with various techniques and philosophies... Latest thought:

If I trade small, I need to get what I get. Zigs no zags. That's my bread and butter. When I can trade much bigger, that's when I can get back to doing partials and leaving a runner. I need to earn the right to leave runners by building up with basics.

2% down open

The market opened gap down approximately 2%. Everything extended down. Because of the past several up days, though, the gaps down were back to the middle of boxes. The only way to consider a breakdown was maybe on 60 min. Lots of 60min moves below uptrends, but some of the dailies were strong. What to do?

I watched several weak dailies. Then played it really close. I left a lot on the table, but that could have gone either way. I got green. Peace.

chill out!

I keep pushing where I should take it and taking it where I should push it. This is fear/greed, not rule following. Market has been basically inside for about a week. There should be no pushing. Reversals should be expected.

Build back with a spoon. Small size. Pay myself first. Tight stop is the right stop.

Green day, but too much room for a loser really cut into it. 

a little something

 

fomo

Coming in today, after multi day wild selloff, market gapping up just to resistance. My goal for today, get pltgt and get out. None of this too-cute pressing for more and then getting slapped. 

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue (-Airplane!). I didn't give any smidge of room. Took my profits and ran for a beautiful green Friday. But of course the market today sold off hard and I missed so much. Oy.

This is my ongoing question. Knowing when to press. Ultimately the answer is take and trail. That's clockwork baby! Stick with clockwork. 

backing the wrong horse

I picked LI as my favorite trade today. It had been strangely strong this summer, but this setup looked "perfect." A downtrend with a small base and a clear support level going back to an open gap in May. Below all the ma's. 

It traded like a total jerk. Didn't drop out when the rest of the market tanked. Threw some crazy spikes up, prohibiting a stop/market. And as we speak it will not break with the market. I got out a 17% sliver, and I'm still holding the bulk. 

Little later, everything is falling out of bed, and LI doesn't care. Junkus

Result. TERRIBLE hourly rate on this trade, but at least it was green.

out of sync

I feel very out of sync with the market lately. I'm a little shocked how hard we're selling off and I have not changed mental gears well. In addition, even if I say to myself "be skeptical of rallies," I still find myself trying to pick bottoms, anticipate bull breaks, hold for hope, etc. 

No trades today. But not in a good way. Mostly in a frustrating way like I didn't see it coming, I missed it, etc. 

Holding a lotto IWM call (nms? bottom picking from yesterday). Right now it looks like it will go to zero. Why do I even bother with lottos. Setting a target and leaving my desk.

market sneezes

 Big continuation down today. I call it market sneezes.

Before it really dumped, I took a long on COIN. nms. What the actual F!? Why do I keep doing this? Loser, of course. For no good reason.

$SPX

day after massive move

Friday the markets were destruction. Down 3.5-4%, bearish engulfing and doubled the range it engulfed. This morning, market gap down but I did expect initial buying. There is room below, but the market is so extended now, esp on the 60. So the plan was (take a guess...) wait! I wanted to wait at least to see the opening 5 min range.

Started w COIN puts, from the volume gapper list. Got too itchy. The price was still inside yesterday (that alone should have negated it). Also, the price was still above vwap (and also this alone should have negated it). This was a loss I deserved, but at least I had a decent stop and respected it. Still counts as NMS and not a "perfect trade".

NVDA got completely wrecked Friday. Lots of tickers making this similar pattern/setup to COIN, NVDA, so I was trying to pick the best (worst, for shorts) one. I did wait for NVDA to get back below yesterday's bar. I did wait for the price to crack back below vwap. But I did not give the stop back to day high and I got shaken out. It maybe would not have gone to targets before a tough reversal, but I could have gotten out green. 

Red day. 

how nms can wreck my account

 Just relate to the colors.

First column is winning vs losing trade result.
Second column: red is NMS; gray is lotto; blue/purple is kinds of gaps beyond levels. 
Two different sorts. This is August data. 100 perfect trades (not shown) is also a bit of a mess, but it has much less nms.

It should be no surprise that I have a great record when I stick to my system. 

Here's some more interesting views. 

My win/loss excluding nms is 67%.

My win/loss excluding nms and excluding lottos is even better. However, I did not analyze the $ gain/loss on lottos. If I have outrageous net $ gains, that might be a reason to keep playing lottos. But somehow I doubt it.

My win/loss on nms should be the true reason to stay away. 81% losers. 

absolute market wreckage

As of 3:50pm, market is getting slaughtered. Down ~3.5%

The market looked good for starters. I tried LI long (seems silly now!) above the long term downtrend line. Max loss on the calls on opening pennant breakdown and ndl 9:43. Still had last bit fing put position (stubborn!) from yesterday's NVDA puts, and that actually made the LI loss back. Coulda'shoulda had so much more on NVDA, but I should just be grateful I got anything out of that piece of junk

I hate how I traded this week, esp NVDA and LI past 2 days. Need to go slow next week and regain sanity. F'ing miserable.

fades!

Two strong gaps up, both faded. NVDA gap down, just to the edge of shorting territory. That's the one genius shorts and it goes full bull, while the ups fade down.
So, today I'm back below the milestone number 🔨

Finally! the milestone

Finally! I crossed the milestone account number. Maybe now I can stop trading like an ass.

Premkt notes: Literal flat open. Wait for entries. Take it off when I get the move.

I took 2 "perfect setups" (for my scorecard). Both struggled at first. Need to study how I could have entered better. What I am trying to do -- in addition to the usual waiting for pb, watching levels, watching level 2 -- is say to myself, for a short, "are the buyers done? are the buyers done?" and opposite for longs.

The lesson I'm well aware of, is if I'm in a "perfect setup" then I have a MUCH better chance of it playing out my way. This is the whole point, after all, of being the house. Being on the high probability side of the trade.

First I got into ENVX. It looks like a real juicy runner, but I still need to trade smart. Waited (are the sellers done? are the sellers done?). Got long on the negation of the opening selling bar. Held through the first pause ~23 bc no pltgt (hoping for 30% these days, but not to go back below 20%...) or Target on the underlying. in the next bump 9:49, the volume also grew. It didn't hold on well so I had to dump it. It continued after that a bit without me, but then pulled back below my levels and couldn't get going again. I like how I traded it. 

If ENVX would have continued, would I be regretful? I need to be able to say no because I got my piece. I can't press if I'm going to give it all back. I can press for more, but I need to also capture more.

SBLK was more of a mess. I wanted it short. Are the buyers done, are the buyers done? I jumped in on a micropause, thinking it would absolutely dump, but then it bounced back hard. My ultimate stop was approaching quickly, but thankfully it topped out at premkt level (that I was stopping beyond). Then it rolled back down agonizingly slow. When it got back to day low, and within a smidge of my entry, I put in a stop/limit and got out of dodge.

Later: 
I don't wish I stayed in. I do wish I reentered. I don't wish I stayed at my desk all day. Peace.

100 perfect trades

 I started in earnest this week, my campaign for 100 perfect trades. Meaning, only trading my very best setups. Win or lose is not the matter, though rule following is. 
Progress this week:
DIS - proper setup✅. Disappointing management.
MRO - proper setup✅. Disappointing management.
CRWD - improper setup. And not the best management.

erroneous decision making

Market volatile but inside. Don't expect followthrough. 

So, I got a lovely MRO trade. A true, clear, and obvious breakout above long term levels. Yanked it way too soon on cowardice. 

And then... for whatever f-reason... I jumped into CRWD in anticipation of a big move. 

Don't anticipate on inside days! Don't expect followthrough on inside days. I had no business being in CRWD. What was I thinking? I was thinking, this 1 min move looks strong, above opening 1m downtrend. I should grab it. I neglected to zoom out to the daily and realize there was so much overhead junk. It was a reversal gap but not any kind of breakout or new levels.

In summary, I jumped off the rocket and then reached for a rocking chair. It's a double loss... the money I should have made on MRO and the money I wasted on CRWD. ugh.

So I gave back half my day. ugh. And like the 4th day in a row that I touch over that major round number and then let it slip away.

Bad entry reduces gains

Here is another case of me jumping in too early and reducing my potential for gains. 

If I would have entered at 9:49 or 9:50, I may have gotten approximately the same entry price, but without the heart attack, though it did do another spike there at 9:55. 

Another thought about this setup: While I do think it's a valid gap below ST level, It is also the 4th consecutive down day and maybe it was not optimal in that way.

As this got back green for me, it also lost some momentum and I found it very hard to hold. I messed around with targets and trendlines, yanked stops, yanked limits. While it traded mostly flat from 10:30 until I gave up at about 11. UGH!! I just didn't want to go red again, so here I am with pretty small gains. But green. And I've released the stress of it.

Aside, a LESSON. I am pushing sooo close to a milestone account number. I think I may be trading extra-aggressively to try to ring the bell. But consider: extra aggressively should include waiting for great entries!

Update, after close.... If I would have held on for the consolidation, the next leg did come. Pltgt, Price Target, etc, etc. ... Would have been a tough hour and a half or more. That's a case (especially on a Monday) to set bracket order and walk away.

2 perfect setups

I traded 2 setups I thought had a lot of potential. I entered both too early and didn't get out at the 11:30 dip bc greed and challah (lesson?).

Waited another 2+ hours, during which time I went into minus. Both were itm, at least, so I felt like I had a little time. Just should have taken off more aggressively at 11:30 esp 0dte.

I should do some thinking about how to manage if it doesn't hit my Target, but does give amazing p/l. I don't want to let a good p/l go red just bc it didn't reach Target. Maybe something like if the option goes +30%, don't let it get worse than +15% (half?). Think on this.

Shabbat shalom.

Interesting, The setups are almost identical. Also DDOG and 1-2 others variations on this theme today. 

See the morning: