2 perfect setups

I traded 2 setups I thought had a lot of potential. I entered both too early and didn't get out at the 11:30 dip bc greed and challah (lesson?).

Waited another 2+ hours, during which time I went into minus. Both were itm, at least, so I felt like I had a little time. Just should have taken off more aggressively at 11:30 esp 0dte.

I should do some thinking about how to manage if it doesn't hit my Target, but does give amazing p/l. I don't want to let a good p/l go red just bc it didn't reach Target. Maybe something like if the option goes +30%, don't let it get worse than +15% (half?). Think on this.

Shabbat shalom.

Interesting, The setups are almost identical. Also DDOG and 1-2 others variations on this theme today. 

See the morning:

gem of a lesson!

Look back at my trades today. On CSCO I waited and made nice money. On PLUG (a worse setup!) I didn't wait, and lost my face.

CSCO never made the move above 50, but I still had a nice trade. Because I waited and then managed it for what I could get, even if I was disappointed. 

PLUG teased the break, then flushed. And I managed it like a stubborn ass for a big loss.

WAIT for wins.

CSCO, I waited so well. I got a great entry. Had great gains, but didn't take enough off, soon enough. Ended that trade well enough. I tried to hold for more, but the market was dropping and there wasn't enough pressure to lift this strongly. Should have taken bigger partials... 20/20.

PLUG was... well... is this my setup? On the 60, it looks like head/shoulders top. But on the daily, looks like a 123 continuation long. When the market was strengthening up, I preempted high flag breakout. It went directly against me. I tried to get out with a stop/limit, but it blew straight through and killed me. 

Again today my notes were: flat, inside open. don't preempt. 

Don't preempt got me a great entry in CSCO for a green trade. Preempt PLUG trade was a complete and utter waste, and took my day green to red.

toxic winner

Shorted BBBY today. This has been a wsb runner, and it rejected the important $30 level. But it didn't make my move until the last ~10 minutes of the market. I tried to hold for a price target or a massive (if arbitrary) pltgt. I had no intention to hold overnight so I yanked it not too badly at 15:59:06. OY! The attention I gave this all day. ugh!

Something interesting about this trade was the way the premium changed. The option at the 12:00 low was less than I bought it. And then, also oddly, at about 3:20, the option price was above where I bought it and the option price climbed before the stock price gave out. Interesting!!

Much later after hours, this thing is losing its sh$t, all the targets I wanted. So, what's the interpretation? Who was holding it up during the day (wsb?)? Who's selling after hours?

Over eager

I missed the AMZN move today. I jumped in too early and I couldn't hold on. 

No reason I should have been in that early. In my pre-open planning I wrote: 
Flat overnight
Inside open
Extended bull
Beware no followthrough

All the clues should have told me to WAIT. 

I won't come back eod, so I'll catch up tomorrow. 

2 losing days in a row, so tomorrow, half size and extra caution.

Setups

Today's AMC try was puts below 2 day support (4 day level). It worked, but not "enough" (coulda shoulda) so I got out for break even. 

Then I tried for IWM 0dte puts. The setup was "eh" but most of all I gave it too much room and took a regrettable loss.

Charts, probably not today. 

fing lucky

I traded 2 tickers today, both nms 🔨

AMC gapped up after a reversal day, a continuation day, and today day 3. Seemed so strong, I thought/dreamed it would go above 28 as an anti-gravity play. Nope. Anyway, anti-gravity... really... is that one of my setups? F! I lost a lot trying that over and over like an idiot. Tilt. 

UPST, while actually nms, at least had some sort of logic. It was on my screen from yesterday (note: reset my screens each day...). Yesterday was gap/fail day, but today UPST seemed to hold on, and it did a strong bottoming formation in the opening bars. I went long in the surge. Then it spent the rest of the day teasing in a huge range. 

On one hand I held bc it didn't reach my tgt and it didn't break down. On the other hand, I took a 0dte call and I didn't really have time to wait. It spent 3 hours basing... and losing time... at not a great take profit level, even as the indexes climbed strongly. 

Something happened after 2:00 that sent the market up another bump and finally budged UPST awake again. By this time, spreads were like 30% in the spread so I knew I needed to get out on a limit. I hate that situation. Baruch Hashem!! It went to my price target and I got a good fill on a moderately ambitious limit order and I managed to close green on the day for all my idiocy!

When the market is ripe, rake it in!

Market gapping up again today. Yesterday was a gap above a several day flag. 

Market is very ripe for breakout and continuation moves. Trust the moves to happen(?), and ride for the gains! Have to capitalize on days like this.

Cocky, yes! Watch out for that. Is it overconfidence? I don't think so. I think it is realizing that today and yesterday were ripe for big moves and I played for big moves.

What is play for big moves? Trade breakouts. Breakouts should work, so give room. Watch the market, watch other movers for sentiment. Ride the wave.

SHOP, breakout with news above long term base. I chased a little on the entry. I initially calculated a 30% move, and there was a price level just above so I reached for it. First touch, limit order didn't execute so second touch to my target, I took a market order. After some chop and some ? in the market, I got out of the second batch on stop. Last smidge to ride... didn't quite make the price target, but volume wasn't pushing that leg. Market and others on watch weakening. Didn't want to give any back, so I locked it. BH!

Follow up end of day

WHOA!!

Have to take those gains! What happened to the market?

give a chance to work

I need to work on my entries. I will come back to this thought.

GOOGL beautiful. I'm trying to hold winners longer by giving it every possible chance to work, given the set of rules that I've developed.

I didn't enter well. The daily setup is not yet a breakout, so there is no reason to chase it. In addition, the market gapping massively up on CPI, so I should expect it to need to chill, do price discovery at the open. There was no reason to jump into this.

When it finally got to 119.97, my initial target area for pl(30%!) and for stock price, I squeezed the stop on half. What a relief! Even though you could say I could have given it more of a chance to work, everything(mkt, other stocks) was pushing resistance and I didn't want to give up anything once it reached my target. Anyway, that's why I leave some on. Second target was based on the daily upslope tl. GOOGL went through it easily, but I didn't want to give back that leg. After the first hiccup, I took it off.

Back to entries. In this example, if I used the thought that the open required price discovery and based on this not yet breaking I had time to wait, I could have entered differently. Would I have entered lower? Not necessarily. Maybe the alternate entry was 9:45 after the flush/recovery. I may have gotten in a few cents lower. I also would have had more certainty about my stop level. 

In my real trade, my initial stop was, by eyeball, "wide stop" below the premkt low. I only didn't get hit by luck. After that bounce and reach new high in the 9:45-10:15 timeframe, why didn't I raise my stop? Greed, I think? Overconfidence that my move would happen = luck? At the time I was thinking that today is Wednesday, and I do need to start being mindful of the TIME that I'm losing on the trade. Thursdays and Fridays I can't give that kind of room unless I'm really near being in the money (and even then, don't be a jerk). 

So that's the emphasis on entries. A "best" entry will give me profits better/faster. How can I work on better entries?... ugh.?

As I write, 40 min after I closed, GOOGL is making new highs again. In retrospect, maybe I could have weathered the pb, but it would have been into the midday session and not a sure thing. Would have costs me a lot of psychological capital. No regrets on either of my exits. Maybe future planning I would take 40%/40%/let 20% trail. Or 45/45/10 if possible

subtle mentality shift

What is the subtle mentality shift I feel between winning day and losing day? It's not the feeling of being right/wrong. It's not the aftermath of victory or defeat. 

I think, losing lately is the feeling(result!) of abandon, of fck it. Winning is the feeling of keeping a grip on it. I need to recruit more of the "keep my grip" mentality, and not the "fck it" mentality. Probably also in other areas of my life.

holdling winners

Two green trades today. On LI, I waited and it went well. On MU I jumped too soon, waited with bag in hand, still did ok. 

I do like how I exited. Check market move. At first SPY consolidated. Only at 9:45/9:50 it finally made the move to help me. Then in the 10:10 bar when SPY looked to bounce, I squeezed my stops. Both trades were near/beyond my pl target, but neither got to my stock price target (ambitious ones, granted). 

Today I was motivated by this IG I saw https://www.instagram.com/p/Cg1dhrLA4-p/
The best way to hold winning trades is to give them every possible chance to work, given the set of rules that you've developed. 

Was it in my set of rules to hold MU like that? I think it would have been better to stop/reenter, even though my loss at the top was close to max loss, where I would have stopped above there would have been beyond.

LI trade was farther OTM. So, coulda'shoulda gotten more with a ntm.

counter trend

Waiting for targets... 

SPY short did a fake above my hope level before dumping. I then tightened my stop and closed it before the dump to the "dream" target I had.

While I know I need to just trade my system and not try to hold for dream targets, maybe if I had more contracts, I could have left a trailer on for that move. That's TBD later. What I do know is that counter-trend trades need to be taken off quickly.

extended market

 Market is extended. Lessons for an extended market: pre-empting doesn't work, because there's not enough energy left for buying. Beware of breakout of extended runups. 

This week I was red. Lots of frustration, 2 weeks in a row. Next week I will paper trade. I'm off for whatever reason and I need to stop the slide. The following week I will need to trade half-size. 

Frustrating!!

look left... more!

MRNA, wow! The one I didn't trade. TBH, would I have gotten the whole ride? How can I find, trade, and stick with mega winners like this?

CVS paid, but was not without some worries. In the second minute, it spiked and reversed. Didn't get a chance to enter my target order. Had a few minutes of stress as this consolidated but the market was moving down. Was able to enter an improved stop and get my pltgt. I hoped above 100 it would launch again, but not here for another pb. Took my $ and ran.

SBUX was, in retrospect, nms. Took a small size there, not to ruin my CVS gains. The gap setup seemed ok, but looking again... more to the left... it gapped into a level. I should have passed. Also, I tried to get cute picking it off the 1 min bottom, and I think I did that ok. I waited, watched lvl2, but it was doomed from the setup. When it quickly failed, I gave it wayyy too much room and got lucky to get out green. 

LESSON: This is an example of toxic gains.

best setup focus

 UBER nice gap up today. Base isn't so clean, but the gap cleared several levels and all eyes on it. Market has been really strong for ~2 weeks, today a pullback day but not dramatic. 

UBER had a hard time lifting. I waited more than my usual. I'm not interested in any more losses in my account💔! I need to stop below the igniting/triggering bar. This may give more losses (if smaller), but I'm tired of the bigger losses. I'd rather take more scrapes and less gashes. Trading has been demoralizing lately. Need my game back!

First try was a loss. Of course in retrospect if I had a lower stop below the 9:40 hammer I could have stayed in, but that's not the bar I was trading against and it's only clear in retrospect. On a strong trade, it should not give up the igniting bar. I looked around for other ideas for the next trade, but UBER still looked like it could set up again. Second trade was green, but still left me with a $4 loss on the day.

I like how I was picky with picks. I like how I waited. I like how I watched the market. I even like how I tried again. I like how I managed the trades. I hate having losers.

Looking back across my other premarket picks, I wouldn't have done any better.

Which chart to post... as I was annotating, it took a big spike (fomo!) and then a hard clunk (not fomo!). 

break beyond small vs big base

I will start to track gaps beyond base plays by big base and small base. 

A big base would be a multi-week pattern. A small base would be a few/multi day pattern such as a flag/fin.

Today, INTC for example. I liked the breakdown of the daily flag, but there is a multi week base there too that it sort of broke down. So is that my setup or not my setup? The gap down was huge, so I can't ignore that nearby low. Anyway, it didn't work. Loser and ate the spread.

So, in the name of stopping this frickin losing streak, I'm walking away with one loss. Big loss on small trade. Small loss on account. Discouraging nonetheless.

excellent trading today

I love how I executed today. Got the PYPL opening range break at 10:05, but it didn't continue well. Tried again off the vwap and that was the $$. I locked it "too early" but I got my piece.

Foolish trade

 Foolish trade in the afternoon. Too early, lucky to get +2% stopping in the spike. Bad all around, including bad use of psychological capital.

Need to resume annotating before leaving my desk (vs later on phone)

Monday off/not

 I got max loss last week. Ugh, so frustrating!

Today I took CAT calls (lol "cat call") for 10%, a real hit and run (on my phone...). While on mini vacay visiting KA.

breakout yesterday?

Yesterday we did get the break above levels. Right into the 50mas, but OK, there's going to be a lot of overhead levels from where we are. I was disgusted to buy TQQQ yesterday in my swing account (right, though, buy when uncomfortable?), and today, it's not yet following through. 

This morning, no great picks. Maybe paper trade.

 

be skeptical of bear mkt rallies

In a bear market, be skeptical of rallies. 

Today was a great example. 

At the open, I thought maybe we would trade above this wedge. QQQ also was close to the break level. But, you know, "something happens" (today was it aapl news?) and it suffices for a catalyst for fear.

SPY

I got some spxs in my plum(swing) account, and I made a little smidge on SPY 0dte puts, but I traded it too scared bc expiration and the move came at 3:40. Coulda shoulda. Peace.

This is no time for breakout entries

(didn't hit publish yesterday = Thursday)
Another losing day. My week is done on max weekly loss. The lesson of the week is not just to trade small (always!), but that breakout entries in this market are not working.

A few of the trades this week, I could have had my target if I had a better entry. Another way of saying: It made the move I wanted, but didn't get to my target because I had a breakout entry vs a pullback entry. So what is my style? Do I take b/o entries, and this isn't my market? Do I short term adapt and say, I need to work on my pb entries? Do I not trade? Do I scale in? 

    How about closer/smaller targets, so I can book gains. 

That's it! I like my breakout entries and I don't want to start messing around with this fundamental skill. This market isn't giving me 20%. I think I need to start taking 10% (15%?). Need to build back my account, build back my confidence. I'm "right" on all the planning. Just the market isn't giving the bigger moves, despite the big move days, the VOLATILITY is whipping me. Can I possibly study VIX and anticipate this kind of market climate?

So... tomorrow no trades... do I know myself by now? ... I'll be paper trading.

BAC got me twice, NVDA also. ugh.

took the loss/es

Another losing day. Despite the massive gap down bc CPI, LI didn't pay. Took off for an even bigger loss when it started moving up. 

Took another loss on NFLX. Fell for the same setup as LI. The trendline broke, but next level was near.

That's all I can stand for one day. 

Near my max week loss at this point. Need to go small tomorrow.

went home with a loser

Ouch! I spent a lot of mental capital today. 

Got into 2 shorts, both too early and held. 

DWAC I managed to salvage. Spread grew very big. On the second exit, I used a price trigger on the stock, and sold part with a market order (hit the bid) and the other part I got a decent limit. 12% difference between them. This shows the real problem with trading wide spreads. 

LI, in too big, too greedy, tried to be too cute. Took LI home, -19% at close on Tuesday. If I get out of this green, some how... it will be a toxic winner. Why did I short such a strong daily chart? I thought I saw a trendline breakdown. Next support was too close below, and I shouldn't have expected a strong one to collapse.

Actually, both trades, completely toxic. Lack of stop discipline. This often happens when it goes against me so fast I don't have time to enter the stop. It's a mess.

Wishing myself luck on LI for tomorrow. Needs to get below ~36 for me to see green.

back from vacation

Flew in on a redeye last night. Don't feel tired, but aware I'm probably not peak sharpness. I like all the picks. 

The first TWTR trade was over-eager. Short off the top would possibly have worked, but TWTR options is a tough trade always, for some reason. 

WYNN was great textbook setup. I could possibly have gotten more on the back, but the spread widened and I got out. No regrets to capture that drop and get out.

BIDU setup wasn't as good, but China news was strong (also partly affecting WYNN with Macau angle) so I had a backwind on that.

A few good setups. Hit/run/shower/go to sleep. 

yesterday losses

Yesterday was a frustrating narrow range day on the market. No followthrough on anything. I took an opening loss on UPST puts and packed it in. I think this is a good strategy for me. If the first trade is a loss, maybe just call it quits instead of hacking? Yesterday that was the "win"... to not hack on a no-ft day.

spreads and fomo

NKE short was the trade of the day. One minute failure pattern I see over and over again. The spreads were wide, so I had to take targets. It also made me trade too scared, but by "not wanting to give back", I tightened the stop too much / somewhat illogically and missed more. 

Lesson would be to take the ask when I can, and not wait to go out on the bid/stop. I still would have left a LOT on the table, but would have captured somewhat more. BUT, still need to have that protective stop (in the right place).

All wrong today

 Max loss day today. 

What went wrong?

One real problem is BIDU went against me so fast I didn't finish to get my stop in. And then I thought I was going to wait for a new pivot. Too cute, should have done it with a market order.

My read was wrong in general.

Revenge cut my gains

I overtraded on NIO. 

But first, RBLX very textbook trade. Nice gap above level on a strong market day, but also extended and near resistance. Entered above the opening range and scaled out

Then NIO. Market seemed to be weakening at resistance. NIO failed hard at resistance. I ate a short, but reversed long for a win. Did I call it quits? 

Didn't call it quits, and this is one of my weaknesses to pay attention to... revenge trading. I lost on the short and then I wanted to make it back and more. The second NIO trade (calls) was rational. The second try at puts was just silly. I had a great day. Take it and go. Another loss made me want to trade again. So I went for calls again but NIO couldn't (and still can't, as I write) make it over resistance. 

STUDY: What do I notice about my tendency to revenge trade and what can I do to fence it out? Here's questions to ask myself (and also I've asked myself enough times that I know the answers, so I need to keep enforcing the behavioral change)... 

Has the setup played out? Then walk away. 

Am I good at taking new trades in the second phase of the open? Maybe just walk away after 9:50. 

If I need(?!) to trade the second phase, what are my best setups? 

Wouldn't I rather have cash for later than keep stabbing at a dead trade?

Do I tend to do this more on Fridays when I'm trying to have tighter tolerances?

Markets rounding a (interim?) bottom

is this my setup?

On the 1 min, this is absolutely my setup. On the daily? It's an inside day. On an inside day, I shouldn't assume there will be follow through. 

I like this trade. Trading buddy questions me, is this really my setup I have complained about inside day trades before. Do I allow myself to trade inside day setups? Need to analyze my trade data (in progress) to determine if this is at large a profitable setup for me. 

Today it worked. Hit and done.