hard day for easy money

I had nice gains today, but I let the last little runner of SPY calls run all day (illusions of grandeur) and it was a literal pain in my neck.

Accumulation

 Ok yes. In mid October I did mistrust that bottoming bar. 

Since then, follow through. A few really nice green volume bars, that accompany big price-up bars and a net uptrend in play for a good few weeks. None of those accumulation mega-days have been breeched downside. It's the definition of an uptrend, but have we seen THE bottom? Time will tell. 

For now, what is the price volume action saying?

Wisdom teeth and JPow

Last week was short week for Thanksgiving. This week also a wierd week bc H had the oral surgery I've been dreading. It's been ok but tough on sleep and trading schedules. 

Today was full of economic announcements and Fed Chair J.Powell had scheduled remarks at 1:30. Morning trades didn't work, even with all the news. Everyone waited for Powell. I underestimated that and hacked around in the morning. I thought there would be some opening trades, but it was inside all morning and gappers didn't work. 

I was busy with H, so I missed the 1:30 trade and the next 2 legs. But there was a lot of power there so I got the last ~90 min move w SPY calls for stellar returns. Made back the morning hack and much more, all with a small $ input. When those 1DTE options go in the money then plow higher, that's the dream! Glad I gave myself one day out so I didn't sweat so much, even though I'm sure the 0DTE paid more. I traded MY trade.

First try at SPY calls at 2:30 was jumping on extreme strength. No regrets for a small try, and no regrets taking a tight stop on only partial and trying to ride the rest. Also tried puts, even while holding calls, bc sooo overbought. But the strength was truly there so I had more confidence and a better pivot when I went added long again at 2:49. 

It was a bummer to take those small targets... but only in retrospect. The trade was choppy for a while and It was 100% the right thing to pay myself first. Take some gains and let the rest ride. Clockwork! And it paid baby!

nip it! also, brackets?

Did I think I could resist a trading day? Am I addicted? Maybe? It just seems too easy to sit down at my desk for a few minutes and squeeze a few bucks out of the market. However!!... yesterday I made an imprudent IWM trade. It was nms and it messed my gains. I've been kind of slacking on this in general - hacking at nms. Remember: I can't trade just anything.

I am reinstating a zero-tolerance policy on undisciplined trading. Last night I moved 75% of my cash out of my account to make sure to keep it small for several days. It's Thanksgiving week. We're in a several day market range. This market calls for strict discipline.

Several picks this morning, oddly enough. But anticipating a thin market I need to be selective. 

ZM caught my eye early as a big gap down. Opening minute a down bar, but market initially popped. I need a pullback. Then it popped to ndh. Now I want short below vwap. This was trading wild, so I took a starter position. I wanted in, just in case, but wasn't ready for size. 

Before I could even enter my stop order, it popped to ndh (would have stopped me). Another volatile bar, and then I put my stop above that new high. Entered the stop for full position size (in advance of building up). When it dropped below vwap and market was also dropping, I got full size. Stop was already in place. 

Then something very interesting that I want to look into more. The bracket order. Because ZM options trade wild, I opened my initial starter with a 20% profit bracket on it. As the option crossed the profit target I worried the bracket wasn't going to execute. but it executed WAY better. This also happened a previous time I have used a bracket like this. I wonder how it works, but based on 2 instances, a bracket seems better than my usual limit order. I wonder how it works for stops, but generally I don't use option pricing for my stops so I don't see how I could set that in a brackte.

Back to the trade. After I took off a too-small piece for my pltgt, I tightened tolerances and skimmed off other partials. Another push down gave me a great gainer and final bit out on a stop.

After this glorious trade, I implemented another bit of discipline I'm trying to impose and I quit my platform. No data capture, no recap, no looking around. File-Exit. Came back several minutes later to restart, capture data, and quit again. No messing around! Use strong guardrails to backstop myself.

Thanksgiving break

 Today is my only trading day this week. Thanksgiving is Thursday and we're getting hectic quickly. I think the market will be slow.... so I will surely have fomo. 

Ripped off a few quick trades this morning for small net gains. If I could undo one trade it would be IWM. Not just because it was a loser, but because if I'm trading indexes it means I can't find something actually good to trade. Index trades should maybe go on the blacklist.

Gave back gains

Gave my day back today by messing around. 

Did great with TAKING TARGETS on PANW long, M short. Then a loss on AMD long and a hella beauty on TSLA short. 

And then... my fatal flaw... even though I said to myself in the TSLA trade, this is my last trade of the day... Go out on a high.  Then I went ahead and tried spy calls for a loss and spy puts which finally paid on a flush, otherwise it would have been a real loser instead of just give-back.

Need a guardrail to stop myself when my brain says stop, even if I still have itchy fingers. Maybe exit the platform instead of keep watching.

pullback day

 Today we are finally trading below a 4 day range. This is the move down that I was trading for yesterday but it didn't crack. And yet, stuff isn't really dumping. This is a down move in context of a generally up month in which we had a strong bottoming bar and another 2 igniting days. Maybe the move was already in the gap. Important levels are being respected in SPY, QQQ.

I was looking for shorts for daily followthrough: short after a 1 min bounce. I caught TSLA short twice, AMZN short for wins and NVDA short (chips extra strong!) for a loss. Based on the action, I decided to take more conservative exits. Easier targets, more off at the target, tighter stops. That served me well, for a tiny green day bc NVDA full loss.

What a day!

 What a day! I missed it. The market gapped up a few percent this morning (after -2.5% yesterday), and proceeded to trade up like gangbusters all day. An amazing day, but the market still doesn't look good. Maybe, though, this was the follow through day to the Oct 13 bullish bottoming bar I was so skeptical about. Time will tell, but I really hope so.

I got a META short in the opening pullback for +13%, but missed the whole day runup in everything. Not my money today.

META

day after midterm elections

Inside day for the indexes. Don't expect follow through.

Trades were hard to find. I went with 60 min setup on META gapping above oversold levels, and DIS gap below major long term levels on earnings.

META was very volatile. I didn't enter or exit well, result was a very small net loss. 

DIS was also chop. I got a good entry and was able to have a good trade. 

Add to my analysis: inside day = don't expect followthough AND expect choppy trade. Wait for levels. Don't chase.

Mistaken trade amplifies losses

AMD, not necessarily my setup in the first place, so big smack in the face for that. AMD gapping up with NVDA which was way up on earnings. However both gapping into resistance, so I looked to fade. 

First puts stopped. When it reversed off the top, I tried for new puts, but accidentally bought calls. By the time I realized why I wasn't raking it in, I was down pretty bad and cut it. Tried to find a new entry for the puts I really wanted, but I missed the boat for another loss, instead of nice gain I would have had off the top. <grumble>

need more plays

I need to work on new setups in my playbook. Today I took 3 nms trades. Is that wrong? There was a decent rationale for each, and I traded them with good levels. So I think I need to work on more plays like this. It's hard being a breakout trader these days. That was great in a roaring market, but the market is not roaring most of the time. I need plays for all seasons. 

OXY has an incredibly strong daily chart. Earnings tonight. Others in this sector making good gap above levels moves, but OXY probably waiting for earnings (with potential to do LT breakout on that). Yet, this was still an inside day. Played it tight, don't give up 10% gainer.

AAPL also inside, strong relative weakness, short against level after pop/drop. Tight stop resulted 0, but the trade wouldn't have paid much anyway and did reverse hard. Was it worth taking?

SPY 0dte, inside small range open. Short vwap bounce down. 

Why so harsh?

 Sometimes I get feedback that this trading journal is very harsh. I guess it is. 

Especially when I get out of the habit of journalling everything, I tend to just write about the frustrating things I want to vent about (and learn from). 

Annotating and journaling were the missing piece that helped me finally become a successful trader. Introspecting now, maybe this lapse in journaling discipline is part of my current string of frustration. Am I holding myself accountable enough? Have I become overconfident? 🚩

Seems like some weekend catch up would do me good. 

nms

Sloppy trading today. Stabbed at nms on AAPL and UBER. AMD, 2 trades one short/fade was winner and long (my better setup) was a loser. 

File under: undisciplined day. Trying for what's not there. Maybe some of these would have played right if I had waited for different entry.

Also, fed day today, so don't expect followthrough?

easy come easy go

Great opening trade on UBER. Got that first opening surge. Nice gainers. But then I tried again off vwap (not a bad idea)... and didn't take it off when it failed the new high (definitely a bad idea). Gave it all back. 

Decent Monday

Market inside open after a really strong day Friday. I need to get back into the routine of annotating, logging, journaling.

WYNN gapping into a tangle of mas, so be picky. I thought I got a good entry, but it still gave me a little worry before launching. I trailed below pl target, then trailed tightly as market was simultaneously downtrend.

ROKU, similar to WYNN setup, but ROKU is always a tough trade. I dig give a lot of room, but also glad I took the stop eventually. 15% loss is yuck, but it helps that WYNN was green.

AMZN was on the TraderTV sticky note (for long off 100). After initial pop/drop, it did a 1 min bear flag and I took a small short. Missed the last leg, but still got my pl.

Even though I didn't get allllll the money out of all these moves, I got nice money. I'm content. This is a new sentiment where recently I have been kicking myself a lot for missing "more" or not taking stops in retrospect soon enough. But this is clockwork! and I need to keep remembering that my clockwork trading techniques make me a lot of money over time. Stick with the plan.

remember: zigs no zags, and tight spreads only

The trades I take where I try to "give it room" have been largely a mistake. Maybe they do go farther later, but mostly I get stopped out first. Better to take zigs, no zags, and reenter later if it qualifies.

Worst trade of the day, hacking at META for multiple nicks and cuts that left me net red... and then it went without me.

Best trade of the day, SHOP where I took the first leg for +8% and +107%. Then tried again, half size, for +62%. 

Other trade. Too cute!!!#* Tried to short CAT. Spreads were small when I took it but opened up insanely wide so I couldn't fill at target and then ... guess what I did about stopping?... fml. Still hoping to get out of that not too bad, but not looking good. Another one to consider blacklisting. Can't do these spreads!!!

f'lucky

Very lucky day today.

No great setups. Set my eye on BA for no good reason. NMS. Shorting something strong. I "imagined" there was overhead resistance, and the market was weak, BA pop/dropped in the premkt. Totally idiotic pick. It has wide spreads, the option has insane spreads. Need to blacklist it. 

Market opened strong, BA traded strong. Market weakened, BA didn't weaken. I traded like a total jerk (ignoring stops...). It formed a pennant at the top. It teased down, then shot up for ndh. I held. Out of nowhere (bc testing 150?) it finally fell to pieces and I managed to get out for +10% on first half, then held the back half too long as it retested vwap (bounced halfway back). So took the second half for +10%, given the chance, but then it did make ndl (not shown). Lucky to get out of this even a little green vs painful red.

15 min

Later... 😭

Perfect trades

I'm trying to focus on taking only perfect setups. Yesterday TSM was a great setup, but I jumped too fast, held too long, and then after I took my loss it finally did what I thought. Moral: I should have waited for a more proper setup.

Today, ISRG was great setup, I waited a little, but not enough, for the entry. Had to give a big stop, but then it did go and I got an amazing 131% gainer, including winners in other accounts also. Took those profits toooo soon, but aggressive trading is ONLY for fast_options, and in other accounts I need to take more conservative targets.

Spread on ISRG was very big, so I had to take the stop-limit, having missed a target. Still, helps the account!!

Overstaying

Coming back small after the chaggim. Need to re-sync with the markets

First trade, DIS puts, hit and run. +22% standard bread and butter trade.

Next trade ALLY was the one I really thought would work. Gap on earnings below multi-day base. I didn't fill at target and then ... spreads!!... I didn't take the stop. Then spent the rest of the day sweating it. Until I sold eod for -27%. 

Also got tied up in AMZN which was really nms. Chased in (on nms?!!!). Didn't take the zig. Then got burnt on the zag. Took this loser home bc it was so worthless by eod, why not see if tomorrow is any better.

What I did do right, very small size. So this day was undisciplined but not too painful. Need to get my grip back!

moadim l'simcha

It's been a pretty intense holiday season this year, cutting my trading days but also helping me get a refresh. In general, though, this market churns my stomach. And I think it gets worse. Recent chag was Monday/Tuesday this week and I really expected to come back Tuesday night to see a massive crash. Coming M/T is SA/ST. I still can't rule out a 5% down day.

I've been trading hit and run, and I haven't been annotating or journaling. Skipping journaling is a bad habit to get into, but I'm going to skip out again today. 

Today my day was saved by an economic number that missed at 10:00 and gave a flash break down that helped me get out of a short I failed to take the target on. 

Market had a huge gap down/run up yesterday. Maybe about a 5% range. In a stronger market it would have been a nice bottom, but these days there IS NO BOTTOM. Everything looks like hell and acts like hell. Be skeptical of all rallies. 

I am developing an increasing really sick feeling about my long term portfolio which is in total pain. Really considering leaving the manager. Such a mismatched temperament. Am I getting near capitulation? Maybe yesterday could hold for a while. But the economy is still crap and getting worse. Fed still states it will hike, and expect pain. So... I'm expecting more pain. Ugh.

YESTERDAY

expensive penny

 I stopped out within 1-2 cents of day high, then it flushed out and hit all my targets. F-ker!

weekend update

Market has been "on de face!" Really bad, very strong down. The trading has been great, lots of strong trend days, but the trend is down and lots of pain out there.

My account is near a new big round number and I think I'm mentally struggling against it again. I hope this week I'll be able to cross and keep it.

Some charts. 

SPY 1 year, daily

SPY 5 year, weekly

Tonight I looked through the charts of each of the SP500 stocks. There's a lot of wreckage. Market trend is inarguably down.

another bf down day

Another big F* down day for the market. I hate this bear market. I'm suffering a lot in my long term account where I'm very mismatched temperamentally with what the manager is doing (ie, holding).

When will the market catch any form of a bid? Today is a "day 3" in my view, so could be a reversal day, except people are just dumping everything, abandoning every ship. 

It's Friday, 0dte, so I must hit and run. I'm looking to short new breakdowns that are not over extended, and I'm looking for overextended stocks that could bounce if the market does.

I left a lot on the table today, like yesterday. But on the other hand I had a great green day and the best week I've had in a really long time. Sunday night is Rosh Hashana and I have a lot of other things to focus on. PEACE!

TSLA... I'm always scared to short TSLA. Gapping below the 50mas, but chart is relatively strong in the past several weeks and the gap down is inside the pattern. This is one people will love to buy if there's a bounce. I gave it zero room. Went in small, took my pl on first trade of the day and got out.

Market looked like it might bounce for a minute, and GOOGL hammered strongly, so I tried the long. Didn't get the target, but not hanging around to find out if longs are going to follow through when there is a heavy weight on everything. 

After GOOGL stopped, it was clear to go short again. TSLA was overextended by then (no second try for me), but OXY set up. It was a bit of a tough trade. It didn't flush and the spread was wide. Took my bit and got out. 

PEACE!

Peace!

Yesterday there was a fed announcement and an already bad market sold off hard. Today, a flat-ish open. I looked for stock moves on volume that weren't already extended, or deep oversold ones to buy if there is strength. I also told myself to wait 3 minutes. None of this buy the first or second bar insanity.

AMD gap down below a mini consolidation. Room to go before the June low. Not day over day extended. AMD relative weakness to the market which barcoded for the first 6-7 minutes. Plan was to take 10%, 20%, runner. After taking 10%(ok, 9% after commissions, etc) the market started flushing and I decided instead of taking 20, to trail it with a very tight stop. Cascade selloff for the win. I squeezed my stop to trail the whole thing, and sold on the first sign of strength. 

Yes, there was more downside. But I'm glad I didn't sit through the chop. I got an amazing gain and I got it so easily. A bounce from a cascade selloff can sometimes rip your face off and I wanted to keep my gains so I didn't give ANY room. PEACE!!

Chicken!

I traded like a chicken today. I had all the right picks, all the right ideas. Building on my thoughts from yesterday about up days in a bear market I went for 

MU - short covering in an oversold stock

UAL - weakness in a weak sector

OXY - short the profit taking gap

But I cut all of them way too short, because I was scared!

ugh, later, coulda shoulda...

Bear market mantras

Below is the breakout I tried to play long this morning. It was (what I call...) hard work. That is the feeling that it's just not launching like it was "supposed to". It was a hard climb. It didn't make it to my target. And later I see it failed. 

This is what I want to remember about trading in bear markets: the pressure is down. Everything is heavy as if there is more gravity. Wet blanket on everything. It is a profit taking day for longs, because they are finally getting their chance. It is a stopping out day for shorts, buying to cover.

Breakouts will have no power and are likely to fail. 

Trapped longs will look to sell. A breakout could be manufactured/manipulated as a selling opportunity (realization as I am currently reading Reminiscences). 

On up days in a bear market: shorts will cover, taking profits by buying.

An up day in a bear market is not a wholehearted buying day. It is a short covering day or a profit taking day for longs. There is a lot of selling pressure into the strength (wet blanket on everything). On up days, breakdowns will also not work because it is a short covering (buying) day.

small relief

Yesterday a max loss day, today made it back and more but not before a heart attack. I keep trying to trade moves up. I should be skeptical of bull moves. 

Today I loved the setup on LVS and its one of the stocks I love to trade. I jumped in WAY too early and had serious pain (means, below where I should have stopped...oy!) before it came back and paid me. Even still, at the top, it was "hard work" and I took it off to protect gains rather than letting it really run. I still think it will hit my targets, but I'm out. 

Maybe this is what risk aversion feels like, but I'm apparently not averse to letting it go below my stop, I'm just averse to losing gains. This is literally the opposite of cut losses/run winners. I'm trading like an amateur. Shape up!! I'm much more skilled than that!

Was down maybe 30% at one point. Take profits at -6%, +3%, +9%, +61%, +41%.

Inv h&s ?

I'm terrible macroeconomist. Everyone is talking about retesting June lows, or worse.

My eye sees a potential head and shoulders bottom. Here's hoping, for the sake of long-term shareholders everywhere!

F*k and luck

I traded like an absolute wreck today and only BEH I came out flat on the day. It started with going in bigger than I told myself I would, and then adding. WTAF?!! On an extended setup!! On an inside market day!!! 🔨

I jumped in too early. I yanked the best stop. I would have stopped pretty near the top, but the order didn't trigger and then BARUCH HASHEM literally! it came back down and I still traded like a wreck but was able to get break even on the day. 

So, to phrase it in the positive voice: I must stick to MY BEST SETUP, and trade it SMALL size. I am not smarter than the market.🔨🔨🔨

only a few min later