fomo

Coming in today, after multi day wild selloff, market gapping up just to resistance. My goal for today, get pltgt and get out. None of this too-cute pressing for more and then getting slapped. 

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue (-Airplane!). I didn't give any smidge of room. Took my profits and ran for a beautiful green Friday. But of course the market today sold off hard and I missed so much. Oy.

This is my ongoing question. Knowing when to press. Ultimately the answer is take and trail. That's clockwork baby! Stick with clockwork. 

backing the wrong horse

I picked LI as my favorite trade today. It had been strangely strong this summer, but this setup looked "perfect." A downtrend with a small base and a clear support level going back to an open gap in May. Below all the ma's. 

It traded like a total jerk. Didn't drop out when the rest of the market tanked. Threw some crazy spikes up, prohibiting a stop/market. And as we speak it will not break with the market. I got out a 17% sliver, and I'm still holding the bulk. 

Little later, everything is falling out of bed, and LI doesn't care. Junkus

Result. TERRIBLE hourly rate on this trade, but at least it was green.

out of sync

I feel very out of sync with the market lately. I'm a little shocked how hard we're selling off and I have not changed mental gears well. In addition, even if I say to myself "be skeptical of rallies," I still find myself trying to pick bottoms, anticipate bull breaks, hold for hope, etc. 

No trades today. But not in a good way. Mostly in a frustrating way like I didn't see it coming, I missed it, etc. 

Holding a lotto IWM call (nms? bottom picking from yesterday). Right now it looks like it will go to zero. Why do I even bother with lottos. Setting a target and leaving my desk.

market sneezes

 Big continuation down today. I call it market sneezes.

Before it really dumped, I took a long on COIN. nms. What the actual F!? Why do I keep doing this? Loser, of course. For no good reason.

$SPX

day after massive move

Friday the markets were destruction. Down 3.5-4%, bearish engulfing and doubled the range it engulfed. This morning, market gap down but I did expect initial buying. There is room below, but the market is so extended now, esp on the 60. So the plan was (take a guess...) wait! I wanted to wait at least to see the opening 5 min range.

Started w COIN puts, from the volume gapper list. Got too itchy. The price was still inside yesterday (that alone should have negated it). Also, the price was still above vwap (and also this alone should have negated it). This was a loss I deserved, but at least I had a decent stop and respected it. Still counts as NMS and not a "perfect trade".

NVDA got completely wrecked Friday. Lots of tickers making this similar pattern/setup to COIN, NVDA, so I was trying to pick the best (worst, for shorts) one. I did wait for NVDA to get back below yesterday's bar. I did wait for the price to crack back below vwap. But I did not give the stop back to day high and I got shaken out. It maybe would not have gone to targets before a tough reversal, but I could have gotten out green. 

Red day. 

how nms can wreck my account

 Just relate to the colors.

First column is winning vs losing trade result.
Second column: red is NMS; gray is lotto; blue/purple is kinds of gaps beyond levels. 
Two different sorts. This is August data. 100 perfect trades (not shown) is also a bit of a mess, but it has much less nms.

It should be no surprise that I have a great record when I stick to my system. 

Here's some more interesting views. 

My win/loss excluding nms is 67%.

My win/loss excluding nms and excluding lottos is even better. However, I did not analyze the $ gain/loss on lottos. If I have outrageous net $ gains, that might be a reason to keep playing lottos. But somehow I doubt it.

My win/loss on nms should be the true reason to stay away. 81% losers. 

absolute market wreckage

As of 3:50pm, market is getting slaughtered. Down ~3.5%

The market looked good for starters. I tried LI long (seems silly now!) above the long term downtrend line. Max loss on the calls on opening pennant breakdown and ndl 9:43. Still had last bit fing put position (stubborn!) from yesterday's NVDA puts, and that actually made the LI loss back. Coulda'shoulda had so much more on NVDA, but I should just be grateful I got anything out of that piece of junk

I hate how I traded this week, esp NVDA and LI past 2 days. Need to go slow next week and regain sanity. F'ing miserable.

fades!

Two strong gaps up, both faded. NVDA gap down, just to the edge of shorting territory. That's the one genius shorts and it goes full bull, while the ups fade down.
So, today I'm back below the milestone number 🔨

Finally! the milestone

Finally! I crossed the milestone account number. Maybe now I can stop trading like an ass.

Premkt notes: Literal flat open. Wait for entries. Take it off when I get the move.

I took 2 "perfect setups" (for my scorecard). Both struggled at first. Need to study how I could have entered better. What I am trying to do -- in addition to the usual waiting for pb, watching levels, watching level 2 -- is say to myself, for a short, "are the buyers done? are the buyers done?" and opposite for longs.

The lesson I'm well aware of, is if I'm in a "perfect setup" then I have a MUCH better chance of it playing out my way. This is the whole point, after all, of being the house. Being on the high probability side of the trade.

First I got into ENVX. It looks like a real juicy runner, but I still need to trade smart. Waited (are the sellers done? are the sellers done?). Got long on the negation of the opening selling bar. Held through the first pause ~23 bc no pltgt (hoping for 30% these days, but not to go back below 20%...) or Target on the underlying. in the next bump 9:49, the volume also grew. It didn't hold on well so I had to dump it. It continued after that a bit without me, but then pulled back below my levels and couldn't get going again. I like how I traded it. 

If ENVX would have continued, would I be regretful? I need to be able to say no because I got my piece. I can't press if I'm going to give it all back. I can press for more, but I need to also capture more.

SBLK was more of a mess. I wanted it short. Are the buyers done, are the buyers done? I jumped in on a micropause, thinking it would absolutely dump, but then it bounced back hard. My ultimate stop was approaching quickly, but thankfully it topped out at premkt level (that I was stopping beyond). Then it rolled back down agonizingly slow. When it got back to day low, and within a smidge of my entry, I put in a stop/limit and got out of dodge.

Later: 
I don't wish I stayed in. I do wish I reentered. I don't wish I stayed at my desk all day. Peace.

100 perfect trades

 I started in earnest this week, my campaign for 100 perfect trades. Meaning, only trading my very best setups. Win or lose is not the matter, though rule following is. 
Progress this week:
DIS - proper setup✅. Disappointing management.
MRO - proper setup✅. Disappointing management.
CRWD - improper setup. And not the best management.

erroneous decision making

Market volatile but inside. Don't expect followthrough. 

So, I got a lovely MRO trade. A true, clear, and obvious breakout above long term levels. Yanked it way too soon on cowardice. 

And then... for whatever f-reason... I jumped into CRWD in anticipation of a big move. 

Don't anticipate on inside days! Don't expect followthrough on inside days. I had no business being in CRWD. What was I thinking? I was thinking, this 1 min move looks strong, above opening 1m downtrend. I should grab it. I neglected to zoom out to the daily and realize there was so much overhead junk. It was a reversal gap but not any kind of breakout or new levels.

In summary, I jumped off the rocket and then reached for a rocking chair. It's a double loss... the money I should have made on MRO and the money I wasted on CRWD. ugh.

So I gave back half my day. ugh. And like the 4th day in a row that I touch over that major round number and then let it slip away.

Bad entry reduces gains

Here is another case of me jumping in too early and reducing my potential for gains. 

If I would have entered at 9:49 or 9:50, I may have gotten approximately the same entry price, but without the heart attack, though it did do another spike there at 9:55. 

Another thought about this setup: While I do think it's a valid gap below ST level, It is also the 4th consecutive down day and maybe it was not optimal in that way.

As this got back green for me, it also lost some momentum and I found it very hard to hold. I messed around with targets and trendlines, yanked stops, yanked limits. While it traded mostly flat from 10:30 until I gave up at about 11. UGH!! I just didn't want to go red again, so here I am with pretty small gains. But green. And I've released the stress of it.

Aside, a LESSON. I am pushing sooo close to a milestone account number. I think I may be trading extra-aggressively to try to ring the bell. But consider: extra aggressively should include waiting for great entries!

Update, after close.... If I would have held on for the consolidation, the next leg did come. Pltgt, Price Target, etc, etc. ... Would have been a tough hour and a half or more. That's a case (especially on a Monday) to set bracket order and walk away.

2 perfect setups

I traded 2 setups I thought had a lot of potential. I entered both too early and didn't get out at the 11:30 dip bc greed and challah (lesson?).

Waited another 2+ hours, during which time I went into minus. Both were itm, at least, so I felt like I had a little time. Just should have taken off more aggressively at 11:30 esp 0dte.

I should do some thinking about how to manage if it doesn't hit my Target, but does give amazing p/l. I don't want to let a good p/l go red just bc it didn't reach Target. Maybe something like if the option goes +30%, don't let it get worse than +15% (half?). Think on this.

Shabbat shalom.

Interesting, The setups are almost identical. Also DDOG and 1-2 others variations on this theme today. 

See the morning:

gem of a lesson!

Look back at my trades today. On CSCO I waited and made nice money. On PLUG (a worse setup!) I didn't wait, and lost my face.

CSCO never made the move above 50, but I still had a nice trade. Because I waited and then managed it for what I could get, even if I was disappointed. 

PLUG teased the break, then flushed. And I managed it like a stubborn ass for a big loss.

WAIT for wins.

CSCO, I waited so well. I got a great entry. Had great gains, but didn't take enough off, soon enough. Ended that trade well enough. I tried to hold for more, but the market was dropping and there wasn't enough pressure to lift this strongly. Should have taken bigger partials... 20/20.

PLUG was... well... is this my setup? On the 60, it looks like head/shoulders top. But on the daily, looks like a 123 continuation long. When the market was strengthening up, I preempted high flag breakout. It went directly against me. I tried to get out with a stop/limit, but it blew straight through and killed me. 

Again today my notes were: flat, inside open. don't preempt. 

Don't preempt got me a great entry in CSCO for a green trade. Preempt PLUG trade was a complete and utter waste, and took my day green to red.

toxic winner

Shorted BBBY today. This has been a wsb runner, and it rejected the important $30 level. But it didn't make my move until the last ~10 minutes of the market. I tried to hold for a price target or a massive (if arbitrary) pltgt. I had no intention to hold overnight so I yanked it not too badly at 15:59:06. OY! The attention I gave this all day. ugh!

Something interesting about this trade was the way the premium changed. The option at the 12:00 low was less than I bought it. And then, also oddly, at about 3:20, the option price was above where I bought it and the option price climbed before the stock price gave out. Interesting!!

Much later after hours, this thing is losing its sh$t, all the targets I wanted. So, what's the interpretation? Who was holding it up during the day (wsb?)? Who's selling after hours?

Over eager

I missed the AMZN move today. I jumped in too early and I couldn't hold on. 

No reason I should have been in that early. In my pre-open planning I wrote: 
Flat overnight
Inside open
Extended bull
Beware no followthrough

All the clues should have told me to WAIT. 

I won't come back eod, so I'll catch up tomorrow. 

2 losing days in a row, so tomorrow, half size and extra caution.

Setups

Today's AMC try was puts below 2 day support (4 day level). It worked, but not "enough" (coulda shoulda) so I got out for break even. 

Then I tried for IWM 0dte puts. The setup was "eh" but most of all I gave it too much room and took a regrettable loss.

Charts, probably not today. 

fing lucky

I traded 2 tickers today, both nms 🔨

AMC gapped up after a reversal day, a continuation day, and today day 3. Seemed so strong, I thought/dreamed it would go above 28 as an anti-gravity play. Nope. Anyway, anti-gravity... really... is that one of my setups? F! I lost a lot trying that over and over like an idiot. Tilt. 

UPST, while actually nms, at least had some sort of logic. It was on my screen from yesterday (note: reset my screens each day...). Yesterday was gap/fail day, but today UPST seemed to hold on, and it did a strong bottoming formation in the opening bars. I went long in the surge. Then it spent the rest of the day teasing in a huge range. 

On one hand I held bc it didn't reach my tgt and it didn't break down. On the other hand, I took a 0dte call and I didn't really have time to wait. It spent 3 hours basing... and losing time... at not a great take profit level, even as the indexes climbed strongly. 

Something happened after 2:00 that sent the market up another bump and finally budged UPST awake again. By this time, spreads were like 30% in the spread so I knew I needed to get out on a limit. I hate that situation. Baruch Hashem!! It went to my price target and I got a good fill on a moderately ambitious limit order and I managed to close green on the day for all my idiocy!

When the market is ripe, rake it in!

Market gapping up again today. Yesterday was a gap above a several day flag. 

Market is very ripe for breakout and continuation moves. Trust the moves to happen(?), and ride for the gains! Have to capitalize on days like this.

Cocky, yes! Watch out for that. Is it overconfidence? I don't think so. I think it is realizing that today and yesterday were ripe for big moves and I played for big moves.

What is play for big moves? Trade breakouts. Breakouts should work, so give room. Watch the market, watch other movers for sentiment. Ride the wave.

SHOP, breakout with news above long term base. I chased a little on the entry. I initially calculated a 30% move, and there was a price level just above so I reached for it. First touch, limit order didn't execute so second touch to my target, I took a market order. After some chop and some ? in the market, I got out of the second batch on stop. Last smidge to ride... didn't quite make the price target, but volume wasn't pushing that leg. Market and others on watch weakening. Didn't want to give any back, so I locked it. BH!

Follow up end of day

WHOA!!

Have to take those gains! What happened to the market?

give a chance to work

I need to work on my entries. I will come back to this thought.

GOOGL beautiful. I'm trying to hold winners longer by giving it every possible chance to work, given the set of rules that I've developed.

I didn't enter well. The daily setup is not yet a breakout, so there is no reason to chase it. In addition, the market gapping massively up on CPI, so I should expect it to need to chill, do price discovery at the open. There was no reason to jump into this.

When it finally got to 119.97, my initial target area for pl(30%!) and for stock price, I squeezed the stop on half. What a relief! Even though you could say I could have given it more of a chance to work, everything(mkt, other stocks) was pushing resistance and I didn't want to give up anything once it reached my target. Anyway, that's why I leave some on. Second target was based on the daily upslope tl. GOOGL went through it easily, but I didn't want to give back that leg. After the first hiccup, I took it off.

Back to entries. In this example, if I used the thought that the open required price discovery and based on this not yet breaking I had time to wait, I could have entered differently. Would I have entered lower? Not necessarily. Maybe the alternate entry was 9:45 after the flush/recovery. I may have gotten in a few cents lower. I also would have had more certainty about my stop level. 

In my real trade, my initial stop was, by eyeball, "wide stop" below the premkt low. I only didn't get hit by luck. After that bounce and reach new high in the 9:45-10:15 timeframe, why didn't I raise my stop? Greed, I think? Overconfidence that my move would happen = luck? At the time I was thinking that today is Wednesday, and I do need to start being mindful of the TIME that I'm losing on the trade. Thursdays and Fridays I can't give that kind of room unless I'm really near being in the money (and even then, don't be a jerk). 

So that's the emphasis on entries. A "best" entry will give me profits better/faster. How can I work on better entries?... ugh.?

As I write, 40 min after I closed, GOOGL is making new highs again. In retrospect, maybe I could have weathered the pb, but it would have been into the midday session and not a sure thing. Would have costs me a lot of psychological capital. No regrets on either of my exits. Maybe future planning I would take 40%/40%/let 20% trail. Or 45/45/10 if possible

subtle mentality shift

What is the subtle mentality shift I feel between winning day and losing day? It's not the feeling of being right/wrong. It's not the aftermath of victory or defeat. 

I think, losing lately is the feeling(result!) of abandon, of fck it. Winning is the feeling of keeping a grip on it. I need to recruit more of the "keep my grip" mentality, and not the "fck it" mentality. Probably also in other areas of my life.

holdling winners

Two green trades today. On LI, I waited and it went well. On MU I jumped too soon, waited with bag in hand, still did ok. 

I do like how I exited. Check market move. At first SPY consolidated. Only at 9:45/9:50 it finally made the move to help me. Then in the 10:10 bar when SPY looked to bounce, I squeezed my stops. Both trades were near/beyond my pl target, but neither got to my stock price target (ambitious ones, granted). 

Today I was motivated by this IG I saw https://www.instagram.com/p/Cg1dhrLA4-p/
The best way to hold winning trades is to give them every possible chance to work, given the set of rules that you've developed. 

Was it in my set of rules to hold MU like that? I think it would have been better to stop/reenter, even though my loss at the top was close to max loss, where I would have stopped above there would have been beyond.

LI trade was farther OTM. So, coulda'shoulda gotten more with a ntm.

counter trend

Waiting for targets... 

SPY short did a fake above my hope level before dumping. I then tightened my stop and closed it before the dump to the "dream" target I had.

While I know I need to just trade my system and not try to hold for dream targets, maybe if I had more contracts, I could have left a trailer on for that move. That's TBD later. What I do know is that counter-trend trades need to be taken off quickly.

extended market

 Market is extended. Lessons for an extended market: pre-empting doesn't work, because there's not enough energy left for buying. Beware of breakout of extended runups. 

This week I was red. Lots of frustration, 2 weeks in a row. Next week I will paper trade. I'm off for whatever reason and I need to stop the slide. The following week I will need to trade half-size. 

Frustrating!!

look left... more!

MRNA, wow! The one I didn't trade. TBH, would I have gotten the whole ride? How can I find, trade, and stick with mega winners like this?

CVS paid, but was not without some worries. In the second minute, it spiked and reversed. Didn't get a chance to enter my target order. Had a few minutes of stress as this consolidated but the market was moving down. Was able to enter an improved stop and get my pltgt. I hoped above 100 it would launch again, but not here for another pb. Took my $ and ran.

SBUX was, in retrospect, nms. Took a small size there, not to ruin my CVS gains. The gap setup seemed ok, but looking again... more to the left... it gapped into a level. I should have passed. Also, I tried to get cute picking it off the 1 min bottom, and I think I did that ok. I waited, watched lvl2, but it was doomed from the setup. When it quickly failed, I gave it wayyy too much room and got lucky to get out green. 

LESSON: This is an example of toxic gains.

best setup focus

 UBER nice gap up today. Base isn't so clean, but the gap cleared several levels and all eyes on it. Market has been really strong for ~2 weeks, today a pullback day but not dramatic. 

UBER had a hard time lifting. I waited more than my usual. I'm not interested in any more losses in my account💔! I need to stop below the igniting/triggering bar. This may give more losses (if smaller), but I'm tired of the bigger losses. I'd rather take more scrapes and less gashes. Trading has been demoralizing lately. Need my game back!

First try was a loss. Of course in retrospect if I had a lower stop below the 9:40 hammer I could have stayed in, but that's not the bar I was trading against and it's only clear in retrospect. On a strong trade, it should not give up the igniting bar. I looked around for other ideas for the next trade, but UBER still looked like it could set up again. Second trade was green, but still left me with a $4 loss on the day.

I like how I was picky with picks. I like how I waited. I like how I watched the market. I even like how I tried again. I like how I managed the trades. I hate having losers.

Looking back across my other premarket picks, I wouldn't have done any better.

Which chart to post... as I was annotating, it took a big spike (fomo!) and then a hard clunk (not fomo!). 

break beyond small vs big base

I will start to track gaps beyond base plays by big base and small base. 

A big base would be a multi-week pattern. A small base would be a few/multi day pattern such as a flag/fin.

Today, INTC for example. I liked the breakdown of the daily flag, but there is a multi week base there too that it sort of broke down. So is that my setup or not my setup? The gap down was huge, so I can't ignore that nearby low. Anyway, it didn't work. Loser and ate the spread.

So, in the name of stopping this frickin losing streak, I'm walking away with one loss. Big loss on small trade. Small loss on account. Discouraging nonetheless.