extended market

 Market is extended. Lessons for an extended market: pre-empting doesn't work, because there's not enough energy left for buying. Beware of breakout of extended runups. 

This week I was red. Lots of frustration, 2 weeks in a row. Next week I will paper trade. I'm off for whatever reason and I need to stop the slide. The following week I will need to trade half-size. 

Frustrating!!

look left... more!

MRNA, wow! The one I didn't trade. TBH, would I have gotten the whole ride? How can I find, trade, and stick with mega winners like this?

CVS paid, but was not without some worries. In the second minute, it spiked and reversed. Didn't get a chance to enter my target order. Had a few minutes of stress as this consolidated but the market was moving down. Was able to enter an improved stop and get my pltgt. I hoped above 100 it would launch again, but not here for another pb. Took my $ and ran.

SBUX was, in retrospect, nms. Took a small size there, not to ruin my CVS gains. The gap setup seemed ok, but looking again... more to the left... it gapped into a level. I should have passed. Also, I tried to get cute picking it off the 1 min bottom, and I think I did that ok. I waited, watched lvl2, but it was doomed from the setup. When it quickly failed, I gave it wayyy too much room and got lucky to get out green. 

LESSON: This is an example of toxic gains.

best setup focus

 UBER nice gap up today. Base isn't so clean, but the gap cleared several levels and all eyes on it. Market has been really strong for ~2 weeks, today a pullback day but not dramatic. 

UBER had a hard time lifting. I waited more than my usual. I'm not interested in any more losses in my account💔! I need to stop below the igniting/triggering bar. This may give more losses (if smaller), but I'm tired of the bigger losses. I'd rather take more scrapes and less gashes. Trading has been demoralizing lately. Need my game back!

First try was a loss. Of course in retrospect if I had a lower stop below the 9:40 hammer I could have stayed in, but that's not the bar I was trading against and it's only clear in retrospect. On a strong trade, it should not give up the igniting bar. I looked around for other ideas for the next trade, but UBER still looked like it could set up again. Second trade was green, but still left me with a $4 loss on the day.

I like how I was picky with picks. I like how I waited. I like how I watched the market. I even like how I tried again. I like how I managed the trades. I hate having losers.

Looking back across my other premarket picks, I wouldn't have done any better.

Which chart to post... as I was annotating, it took a big spike (fomo!) and then a hard clunk (not fomo!). 

break beyond small vs big base

I will start to track gaps beyond base plays by big base and small base. 

A big base would be a multi-week pattern. A small base would be a few/multi day pattern such as a flag/fin.

Today, INTC for example. I liked the breakdown of the daily flag, but there is a multi week base there too that it sort of broke down. So is that my setup or not my setup? The gap down was huge, so I can't ignore that nearby low. Anyway, it didn't work. Loser and ate the spread.

So, in the name of stopping this frickin losing streak, I'm walking away with one loss. Big loss on small trade. Small loss on account. Discouraging nonetheless.

excellent trading today

I love how I executed today. Got the PYPL opening range break at 10:05, but it didn't continue well. Tried again off the vwap and that was the $$. I locked it "too early" but I got my piece.

Foolish trade

 Foolish trade in the afternoon. Too early, lucky to get +2% stopping in the spike. Bad all around, including bad use of psychological capital.

Need to resume annotating before leaving my desk (vs later on phone)

Monday off/not

 I got max loss last week. Ugh, so frustrating!

Today I took CAT calls (lol "cat call") for 10%, a real hit and run (on my phone...). While on mini vacay visiting KA.

breakout yesterday?

Yesterday we did get the break above levels. Right into the 50mas, but OK, there's going to be a lot of overhead levels from where we are. I was disgusted to buy TQQQ yesterday in my swing account (right, though, buy when uncomfortable?), and today, it's not yet following through. 

This morning, no great picks. Maybe paper trade.

 

be skeptical of bear mkt rallies

In a bear market, be skeptical of rallies. 

Today was a great example. 

At the open, I thought maybe we would trade above this wedge. QQQ also was close to the break level. But, you know, "something happens" (today was it aapl news?) and it suffices for a catalyst for fear.

SPY

I got some spxs in my plum(swing) account, and I made a little smidge on SPY 0dte puts, but I traded it too scared bc expiration and the move came at 3:40. Coulda shoulda. Peace.

This is no time for breakout entries

(didn't hit publish yesterday = Thursday)
Another losing day. My week is done on max weekly loss. The lesson of the week is not just to trade small (always!), but that breakout entries in this market are not working.

A few of the trades this week, I could have had my target if I had a better entry. Another way of saying: It made the move I wanted, but didn't get to my target because I had a breakout entry vs a pullback entry. So what is my style? Do I take b/o entries, and this isn't my market? Do I short term adapt and say, I need to work on my pb entries? Do I not trade? Do I scale in? 

    How about closer/smaller targets, so I can book gains. 

That's it! I like my breakout entries and I don't want to start messing around with this fundamental skill. This market isn't giving me 20%. I think I need to start taking 10% (15%?). Need to build back my account, build back my confidence. I'm "right" on all the planning. Just the market isn't giving the bigger moves, despite the big move days, the VOLATILITY is whipping me. Can I possibly study VIX and anticipate this kind of market climate?

So... tomorrow no trades... do I know myself by now? ... I'll be paper trading.

BAC got me twice, NVDA also. ugh.

took the loss/es

Another losing day. Despite the massive gap down bc CPI, LI didn't pay. Took off for an even bigger loss when it started moving up. 

Took another loss on NFLX. Fell for the same setup as LI. The trendline broke, but next level was near.

That's all I can stand for one day. 

Near my max week loss at this point. Need to go small tomorrow.

went home with a loser

Ouch! I spent a lot of mental capital today. 

Got into 2 shorts, both too early and held. 

DWAC I managed to salvage. Spread grew very big. On the second exit, I used a price trigger on the stock, and sold part with a market order (hit the bid) and the other part I got a decent limit. 12% difference between them. This shows the real problem with trading wide spreads. 

LI, in too big, too greedy, tried to be too cute. Took LI home, -19% at close on Tuesday. If I get out of this green, some how... it will be a toxic winner. Why did I short such a strong daily chart? I thought I saw a trendline breakdown. Next support was too close below, and I shouldn't have expected a strong one to collapse.

Actually, both trades, completely toxic. Lack of stop discipline. This often happens when it goes against me so fast I don't have time to enter the stop. It's a mess.

Wishing myself luck on LI for tomorrow. Needs to get below ~36 for me to see green.

back from vacation

Flew in on a redeye last night. Don't feel tired, but aware I'm probably not peak sharpness. I like all the picks. 

The first TWTR trade was over-eager. Short off the top would possibly have worked, but TWTR options is a tough trade always, for some reason. 

WYNN was great textbook setup. I could possibly have gotten more on the back, but the spread widened and I got out. No regrets to capture that drop and get out.

BIDU setup wasn't as good, but China news was strong (also partly affecting WYNN with Macau angle) so I had a backwind on that.

A few good setups. Hit/run/shower/go to sleep. 

yesterday losses

Yesterday was a frustrating narrow range day on the market. No followthrough on anything. I took an opening loss on UPST puts and packed it in. I think this is a good strategy for me. If the first trade is a loss, maybe just call it quits instead of hacking? Yesterday that was the "win"... to not hack on a no-ft day.

spreads and fomo

NKE short was the trade of the day. One minute failure pattern I see over and over again. The spreads were wide, so I had to take targets. It also made me trade too scared, but by "not wanting to give back", I tightened the stop too much / somewhat illogically and missed more. 

Lesson would be to take the ask when I can, and not wait to go out on the bid/stop. I still would have left a LOT on the table, but would have captured somewhat more. BUT, still need to have that protective stop (in the right place).

All wrong today

 Max loss day today. 

What went wrong?

One real problem is BIDU went against me so fast I didn't finish to get my stop in. And then I thought I was going to wait for a new pivot. Too cute, should have done it with a market order.

My read was wrong in general.

Revenge cut my gains

I overtraded on NIO. 

But first, RBLX very textbook trade. Nice gap above level on a strong market day, but also extended and near resistance. Entered above the opening range and scaled out

Then NIO. Market seemed to be weakening at resistance. NIO failed hard at resistance. I ate a short, but reversed long for a win. Did I call it quits? 

Didn't call it quits, and this is one of my weaknesses to pay attention to... revenge trading. I lost on the short and then I wanted to make it back and more. The second NIO trade (calls) was rational. The second try at puts was just silly. I had a great day. Take it and go. Another loss made me want to trade again. So I went for calls again but NIO couldn't (and still can't, as I write) make it over resistance. 

STUDY: What do I notice about my tendency to revenge trade and what can I do to fence it out? Here's questions to ask myself (and also I've asked myself enough times that I know the answers, so I need to keep enforcing the behavioral change)... 

Has the setup played out? Then walk away. 

Am I good at taking new trades in the second phase of the open? Maybe just walk away after 9:50. 

If I need(?!) to trade the second phase, what are my best setups? 

Wouldn't I rather have cash for later than keep stabbing at a dead trade?

Do I tend to do this more on Fridays when I'm trying to have tighter tolerances?

Markets rounding a (interim?) bottom

is this my setup?

On the 1 min, this is absolutely my setup. On the daily? It's an inside day. On an inside day, I shouldn't assume there will be follow through. 

I like this trade. Trading buddy questions me, is this really my setup I have complained about inside day trades before. Do I allow myself to trade inside day setups? Need to analyze my trade data (in progress) to determine if this is at large a profitable setup for me. 

Today it worked. Hit and done.

bullish engulfing day

Premarket (starting down over 1%), I noticed all my gaps down were still above support. No real breakdowns. I watched for some to pull up, then maybe set up for a real breakdown. 

Tried AMZN (was not on my initial list) bc the box was so distinct. When it bounced off vwap I thought to myself, this might be a good long. Wow, it would have been!

I didn't want to go too big into any longs, so I grabbed a SPY lotto to try to participate. Amazing run up and got my account nicely green, but the position size was about 1/10th of the AMZN size so it wasn't a big $ gainer, even if it was a huge % gainer. The definition of lotto.

So, a green day, but how was my behavior? 

I did take a few paper trades this morning before the AMZN. I like that for myself, when I don't have any real setups to just paper trade. What made me jump into AMZN then? Well, greed for sure. Also bc the box was so distinct. But mostly greed and probably impulse(!). Check my greed and impulse control going forward!

wait and try again

Remains to be seen if wait/retry is a good technique for me, but today UPST was my favorite setup. At first, it was the only one I watched that didn't explode up at ~9:35 with the market, so I raised my stop.

Market full bull open so I tried again, early but market still launching, and I had a nervous few bars to sit through until it finally launched. Didn't take pl target bc I'm working on trading by targets on the stock price. This time it worked out great!

recordkeeping

 I have gotten out of the habit of proper recordkeeping. I have become discouraged with the market and moreso with my trading. Lots of knicks and cuts. One bigger one. Some wins, but a lot of toxic thinking. 

This week, tighten up. Smaller size (I also moved some money out). Book smaller wins. Turn the ship. 

Going into summer: vacation, H oral surgery, new programming. I am resolved to a smaller summer anyway. 

Look for my best setups, analyze trades I took and ones I passed on. Take this scale down time to make the next scale up even better.

NMS and other fails

 I don't have great setups in this market and I keep forcing other things (for losses, ofc). Ugh. I also have missed.my setup a few times bc I didn't trust it.

This is standard rookie trader stuff. Really bad behavior. And I'm paying the price. 

I'm moving half my account out, and next week I paper trade.  I need to cool it. Stick to the script.

Today a loser in ROKU for literally no good reason.  I never should have been in it bc inside day... Something I just discussed with G.

no chill!

 This market has no chill! It's just dropping and dropping! The recent major drops have been 10% in a matter of days. I hope we find a level soon for the sake of my long term acct. I don't want to see more red, and I am ready to deploy when the mkt turns. 

However, the talk these days is inflation, recession, food supply chain problems, oil prices, war in Ukraine. It's a pretty big "wall of worry". New forecasting is 2 years to cycle back. 

Anywhooo, I caught 2 trades today for a pretty nice day. Do I need to work on my exits/staying in longer? Not yet! Now I need to keep harvesting the low hanging fruit. Strengthening my self discipline. Tracking trades and analysis. Scaling up and holding longer is the next level when I am wiser.

Whipsaw action

Today I kept it really scalpy. Took everything off for pltgt on 2 trades and PEACE!  This seems to be what the market is giving, aside from whippy volatility.

COIN and ROKU short in the opening flush. One minute chart of each shown. 

Market dump

 The market has had 3 really strong down days. I have not capitalized well. A losing trade each day. The volatility is hard for me. I want to make "more" but I think I should go back to a 10% pl target on _even smaller_ positions. Or hey...how about paper trading. Feeling kind of frustrated and discouraged.

no trade day

 WHAT!?!! An actual no trade day. I think my new trading buddy is having a good influence on me. He gives a vibe of no trade = no problem. Especially as the market chops in this box, I'm becoming less inclined to stab around. Keep my powder dry for the move!

Here's the ones I passed on today:

DOCU textbook setup, gapping above a box. Coincidentally, also above the 50ma. Option is too spready. No trade. Hindsight: it didn't move enough to pay.

ROKU also a nice setup, but I have a saying: ROKU eats its young.... "They"(marketmaker?) seem to run out the stops and reverse. My normal techniques usually get me burned there. So I usually avoid. Hindsight: it moved like a monster, but chopped enough that I maybe couldn't have handled it.

INTC short (ran without an entry on the open)
WDC long (didn't set up for an entry)
ZIM short (option too thin, also ran without an entry on the open).

Range box

 The market has been trading several days in this frustrating box.

Everything is grinding.

Today I lost in WMT. Valid setup. Didn't play out. 

indeterminate

Today's open seems bearish. No great setups again. Do I have to trade today? Can I stop myself? Maybe this is my remaining major weakness... No great setups in the morning, why not spare myself the grief and walk away. Barring that, keep it extra picky -- I'm already not being picky by being here, hm! -- extra small, one "best pick" and get what I get. Examine why I would even try!

MU is an eh' setup on the daily. Nice gap down, but just into the middle of a traffic zone. Don't expect followthrough.

I waited out the opening move. It failed vwap and I shorted. But it didn't followthrough (see previous paragraph). 

Picks I did not take: AAPL, NVAX.

Market chop this morning seems as confusing as yesterday's chop. There is nothing more for me to do here. 

This weekend is Shavuot. Chag sameach. Back on Tuesday.

full bull, I missed it

I missed the trade today. Chop open. RIVN didn't pay. Nothing else seemed clear. I watched for a while, and all my paper trades were wrong so I was glad. A little after 10, the market caught a bid and didn't look back all day. Looks like a bullish engulfing on the daily, but very low volume. 

RIVN short on the open. It RIPPED against me. I only had a minute to be annoyed until I was just really glad. It rocketed up all day. Tight stop is the right stop.

love how I traded today

I love how I traded today. I did a little more than my usual premkt prep. Can't go wrong with prep. 

I think most credit goes to trading like clockwork. Reasonable sizing (I'm pretty good at this), using stops (I'm good at this too), taking reasonable profits... that's my challenge. Especially with wider spreads. I need to be satisfied with "good" gains with a limit order--esp on a partial--than eating a wide spread on a stop. Peace!

I like how I read APPS. I might have thought it was a short, but I also saw that premkt it stabbed way below the support and recovered quickly to open just at/above support. Waited for a nice long setup, then grabbed what it gave. 

LAC one of my favorite setups, gap below trendline. I noticed after I was in that I had the monthly option (let's be real, it happens). It traded slow and also opened a spread. I took an early target and then when it just whimpered down after that I squeezed the stop way down. It did go lower later, but I don't regret getting my piece and having PEACE!

CRM was the setup of the day. All eyes on it today. Huge earnings gap up above the low box, but right into some overhead levels. Waited for it to stabilize, then grabbed. And didn't mess around. I had a target of 184, which it did eventually hit, but I was not willing to give back good (not great, but solidly good) gains. so I stopped it tight. 

$STUDY is this a cowardly move, to take profits before target bc I can't stand the volatility? hm. In a certain way, yes. But if I'm going to take small positions I need to get what I can grab. If I scale up some day (when?), maybe I would elect to leave a tiny runner on. But only if it was a very small (10%?) proportion of my original position... after locking good gains. Just for icing on the cake.