Need to YANK profits off in volatility

Volatility burns me again. I used my average tolerance stops and got chopped. Net red day. I HATE red days. Need to keep those profits.

Something else I did wrong today was only trading what's in front of me. I had about 10 picks today, but only put 3 on the birdeye. In the end, I traded FB and SNAP bc they were on the birdeye, but never went back to sort through the other picks.

In high volatility, I need to grab fast on surges or give tons of room for stops (extra tight or extra loose). I know that my personality prefers to take the fast gains, even if I will miss the bigger gains. Enduring a big pullback is too hard for me. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

So today, I didn't yank SNAP on the first surge. Tried a really late short (which was my initial thought based on premkt). If I wanted short, I should have shorted the top reversal. If I wanted long, I should have yanked some on that power surge. Then I got stopped on my second calls before vwap bounce and the real move came in. I was watching SPY. SPY daily had made a pivot lower-high so all longs are to be doubted (another clue I should yank longs on surges $STUDY). SPY intraday was pulling back off resistance. That should have told me to yank my longs. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

FB, "courageous entry"--I'm such a hero LOL--off the 2 bar reversal bottom. I got half off nicely on the surge, lesson learned for now (see SNAP), but the add (bought higher) went out for a loss on the stop.

The peace trade

The peace trade is to get my piece, and peace. I left a lot on the table today, but since I feel the action has been difficult lately, and I'm working on keeping my gains, today I rode the peace train!

Really, if I look myself in the eye, I should also give myself a good hard shake. I'm up 14% today. Why am I so greedy about the stuff I missed? That's how things go to hell in a handbasket!

SMALL SIZE

TIGHT STOP IS THE RIGHT STOP

PAY MYSELF FIRST

GET MY PIECE AND PEACE

Trade like this every day and I'll be so juicy!! Take MY piece.

shorting in the lower right

Shorting new lows, in the lower right of the chart, isn't the same as long new highs.

That's what the market is giving today, for volume gapper screens. 

up down + down up day

When will I learn how to identify these days? Need to go back and $STUDY. 

Red day today on SBUX. Market strong up into resistance. Gap up scan, best tickers into resistance, so I looked for weakness. SBUX gap down below minor levels. Spread was ok when I got in, but widened after. Small position size by default, but ugh! Couldn't find anything that made sense to me after that so wrapped it.

Good news is I cut the loss. Tight stop is the right stop!! Look how much trouble I would have been in if I tried to hold!

Lehavdil... 2 tickers I watched for longs on gaps up FB and AMD... both down.

coulda shoulda

Oy! PLUG. Didn't take a small loss, then took a big loss right before the reversal. You have to take a stop somewhere, the tight stop is the right stop.

MOS got me somewhat back, but close in red today.

Thoughts about stops. Being ruthless.

One kind of stop I use is a "take profit" stop, where I'm squeezing up a trailing stop to give another smidge of room but trying to lock profits. I feel good about my take profit stop technique. Maybe this is obvious, because if I'm using this, I'm at a win. 

Another kind of stop I use is a "broken trade" stop, where I want to take off a trade that is not behaving right, trend is broken, probable case not playing out. I need to work on my broken trade stop loss technique and discipline. I need to make some firmer definition about where to place these, and definitely need to develop a feeling of relief when the stops hit and not a feeling of dread. 

A strong interfering emotion is greed. I want every penny out of a trade. Never want to eat a spread. And other fantasy-land trading.

First thought. If I'm in too big or if the spreads are too big, I am hesitant about stops, exactly when I need them most. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #1, small size. Small size makes all decisions easier because small size carries less emotion. Lesson here is that size affects my stop discipline. Some ideas around this are - trade small size. take partial stops. remember clockwork and be a responsible trader.

I need to stop my silly game of stop/limit orders. If I need to get out, then get OUT and use that market order. If I want to get cute with limits, then take targets. Stop limit orders confuse the emotions.

Something else to consider, and I've known this for a long time, if I'm drawing trendlines all over the chart... I'm probably in a bad trade. Good trades GO. Bad trades waste my time, if not also my money. Cut the bad trades and move on!

Here's what the greed trap does to me in terms of stops... I keep trying to give it one more level, and just one more level. But by then my stop technique is no longer appropriate. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #2, tight stop is the right stop. Disobeying this gets me into more trouble than any other rule-break. This is the concept of keep losses small. Just keep the losses small, and the winners will add up.

Reassure myself: I have a good win/loss record. Go ahead and take those small losers. They will seem insignificant in the rear view. 

THE TREND. Always assess the trend I'm trading. Look left. If the trend I'm trading is broken, I need to be absolutely ruthless. 

oof

 This is the trade that is breaking the camel's back about stops. This went alllll wrong

Zig

Not many picks today. Market daily looks bull below resistance. 2 gap up picks are main targets. NVAX gapping above bottom. ZIM gapping near ath.

I ruled out ZIM bc it is 5th day of a strong run and indexes still below resistance.

Market barfed at the open (mkt tone now: skeptical of all bounces) and I played NVAX actually for a failure. Spread was not great so I didn't get best target, and since I'm only trading zigs, no zags, after 1 reasonable (but scary) bounce, I had to clamp down. No regrets there bc it launched after that. 

Since NVAX was originally a long pick, in retrospect seeing the subsequent run up how would I have played it? Where would the entry have been? Maybe only after 10am, surge, pb near vwap, then run again. Market move may have corroborated that, but I think I would have been hesitant.

Trying a new chart format where upper left is trade target daily, large right is 1 min trade, lower left is 1 min index for reference.

zigs, no zags

My best trading, best p/l reward is trading micro trends. Zigs, no zags. Scalps. Take the profits and go have a day. Redeemed the week by trading tight. There were some big trends today, but nothing I could have held for. Take my zigs.

sitting on the edge

 I am one trade away from a max loss week. Will only trade a perfect setup today. Otherwise, save my ammo. 

Hard not to notice that when I have losing days I don't journal as well/at all. I'm usually emotionally spent and not in the mood for introspection. But I'm also not growing by neglecting to analyze losses. Work on it. It's the key to success!!!

chop shop

 Despite the huge market volatility I'm just holding even lately. I know that extreme volatility is somehow harder for me. I think especially because I think I can trade more sloppy, jump in late, use tight stops. Trading smaller should help me smooth that out. 

In general, I'm trading with the right sentiment, but getting the timing wrong. Also, bc setups are all ruined I'm trying to hit the indexes. 

Maybe a day off would help. 

TSM pays again

I don't pay enough attention to TSM, but when it catches my screeners it often does really solid gains for me. Meanwhile markets are inside and looking weak.

Today earnings gap to new ath's. Caught it quick and packed it up.

wrong timing

As of 12 noon, all the top 10 gaps up (sorted by run rate) are trading below their opening price. Profit taking. 

Without the wisdom of retrospect, on the open BIDU gap looked great. I got calls on narrow spread, but then the spread widened like crazy. I stopped 1 bar too late, but otoh I tried to give it a little room (but not to day's low, which would have only been worse). 

Tried the QQQ puts, which (with retrospect) was the right trade, wrong time. I tried to give that one room and ate way too much (today exp), while being initially even more wrong and above day high, the trade was down after that. I don't think I would have tried a short at that point though as it based above day highs. Anyway, a huge loser. 

Checking back on JNPR, that fqer isn't helping any. 

Max week loss at this point, so JNPR rides, but I'm done for the week.

premkt Wednesday

Lots of gaps up today, but they're mostly off of bottoms or middles. Market is set to open up again. Shorts are giving up, but longs aren't coming in? 

I held JNPR calls overnight and hope to get my move today. Not sure I'll take another trade until that starts to shape up.

Definitely need to study the action of these that gap off of bottoms. Is oversold bounce the trade of the day?

big ouch!

Just to bite my butt after this morning's grand opining about when to give room... I gave room, I got burned, on an up is down and down is up day. Literally. See charts. (profit taking on both sides)

RIVN reversed haarrrd and stopping the back half above the first pivot hurt my pride. That's why we take small positions, people! Should I have flipped this long? NO. That's not my play. I get burned trying to bottom fish. Even though, I would have loved to catch the right side of a trend like that.

JNPR is the one that really burns. The spread...THE SPREAD... I was "too smart" to take a stop, and then suddenly it's too late (#rlly?). It didn't pop with the market buying, but it didn't fall apart. It's Tuesday. I took it home against better wisdom. BEH tomorrow this goes to 37.2 and beyond.

shorts are bailing out, but the bulls aren't buying

My eternal question: what is the cause of the up-is-down-and-down-is-up phenomenon?

New thinking: On a day that looks like bear, but down is up, that is shorts bailing out/covering. That doesn't mean that bull setups will work... that requires bulls to buy.

So, this phenomenon would happen in a bearish climate, when the bears take profits, sending weak stocks up. But it's still a bearish climate, so bullish setups are also subject to profit taking which sends strong stocks down.

Solved!

letting winners run thoughts

Recently (and perpetually), I've pondered about when to trade tight and when to give room. Yesterday I had 2 trades that were "right" on premise, and I gave them room, but when they started to finally develop in my direction I cut them short.*

I have 2 general thoughts on that:
1. It didn't behave right in the first place so I shouldn't trust it too much when it barely does the "right" thing (so take small loss/gain instead of giving room again). This is my prevailing mode.
2. Meir Barak who says, "I trust it will go up/down" based on the way the setup is supposed to play out. He sometimes eats it big on this, but sometimes when it shapes up again he'll double into it and rake it in.

How should I decide? In general, I'm taking a relativity view on it. If my long setup / calls isn't playing out especially when the market or other tickers are, it makes sense to me to play it tight. OTOH, if we're discussing it, it's already done "not what it should have" so how do I view it in comparison to others and ultimately... at what point should I continue to give it room and at what point should I tighten stops?

Obv, stops always need to be in logical places. I'm having a feeling like I want to try to give these more room even after I've already given them room. Ex: I let it go against me 20%, now it's only 5% against me and I'm tempted to cut it. Should I let it ride? 

Ultimately, I guess it all depends on the climate of the market in that moment. I hate missing big winners, but I can't afford the big losers. So I guess that's my answer.. I have to cut the losers, even at the expense of the fomo.

*Looked at another way, I had the wrong entry. I should cut tightly and potentially reenter but never give room. This is the negative of a cash account. I can't always re-enter so I need to have protection but still play the odds.

mkt fail day

Today futures way down. It is a comfort to be a daytrader and come in flat, with cash and opportunities to work with. I closed it green, but far off the high NVDA gave me.

NVDA was my best pick. I was in too big and traded chicken (spreads), +15% on oversize is ok. Peace.

Should have stopped there. But my brain got a bull bias and I looked at FB hammer around the level and grabbed long, instant fail, and jumped short too fast. It went hard against me, and on the way back down I stopped like a chicken! Held through pain and then didn't stick around for the profit? But otoh, not willing to go back to pain so closed on downtrend break. 

FB wasn't in my screeners. Setup was ok, but do I allow myself to trade this, not from my screeners?

Small position size ftw

Even when I'm feeling really confident, there's going to be losers. 

The best way to keep losses small is to 

keep the positions small in the first place.

Market dumped yesterday and is extended bear today. Needed to give shorts a chance to expel buyers first. 

AAPL was a random pick that I went to bc liquidity, but was an unnecessary trade/loss.

USO I still like the setup, but I didn't get target on the market buying and then it dumped with market continuation down.

NFLX first try I managed tight/scared bc I was red and spreads are big, but the setup was tremendous for a short if the market would continue down. Second try with market selling. I managed it more confidently, entering arguably late and giving it room for the initial bump. 

For the NFLX exit: "real life" was in play - a plumber was at the house and needed my attention so I set a bracket and walked away. It would have gone to my more aggressive target, but I couldn't count on that. With my back turned, I just wanted to get a decent profit target.

Stellar week!!

Green to red to GREEN

Hit and run on CRM.

NUE gave me a harder time.

Market chop today again with downward bias. Chalk this up to luck again? I tried to hang in with the first try on NUE, but have to take stops somewhere. Would have turned a green day red if I hadn't tried again.

Tuesday mismanagement still green

Am I just making excuses for bad behavior? DVN was mega bull pattern, but market consistently dropping. I was down hard at a few points (adding... not the best idea?) but it chopped while it pushed up during market persistent drop. I'll call it lucky to get what I got.

On the other hand, the easy money would have been PINS. It chopped frighteningly when I first opened, so I traded it tight. Stopped toptick before maaasssssive drop, while market consistently dropped. This would have been a massive trade if I stuck with it.

What is the trade discipline? Why did I trade PINS so tight and give DVN room? Market strong bull in general, so I had less faith in a short than a long, even if intraday the market was melting. Only clear in retrospect, arguably. But on the other hand, I traded PINS exceedingly tight while giving DVN so much room. 

I need to study levels more and not just rely on intraday candles.

2022 opens strong

Left a lot on the table twice with TSM, but the same technique saved me well on F. Get what I get and don't get upset. I traded with the trend of the market (which took a hard flush at 9:40). +18% on account today. Really can't complain. Strong start to 2022! Peace.

Market whisperer

TLV Steimatsky:

Tiyul trade

Grabbed a quickie. Played it just right. Even though phone trade and terrible reception. Take targets. Hit and run. Take what you can.

lose, reverse, lose

2 losers today. Tried BABA short on gap down against big green bar. Failed. Tried to reverse it instead of just leaving it be, and the long didn't follow through either. I ate a lot of time for another loss. 5 min chart to show most of the day.

2 trys for +3% net

 Market gap/fade this morning. MU super juicy setup but I think it couldn't do it's full potential because of market drag.

I don't see in retrospect what I saw for the first MU entry. It reversed hard and I didn't get a chance to get out better. The second try redeemed it, even with smaller total position size. 

I'm on vacation right now, so I had small hopes for the day. This will pay for dinner :)

SPY in mid-air today and very intraday volatile

lucky -2% on a day I should have skipped

Pure overconfidence. Excellent week, told myself Friday off. But I "just peeked" and saw a setup I liked (of course...). Hacked myself down. Tilted. WTF, self?! 

And then got toxically lucky for "only" down 2% day.

I think RIVN was the tilt trade, bc I was right but missed it. Then I wanted redemption. Need to pause and return clearheaded.

Also SPY after the fact went well beyond target and could have taken me green, but I don't regret getting what I luckily got... in a trade that was f to begin with.

+12% the hard way

Big up day, but I did it the hard way, and surely with ^help. The trades I should have held, I sold, the one I should have sold I held.

INFY big juicy setup. But market was selling down and I didn't trust it.

PLUG looking for gap up failure. What I did right was enter on the pump. What I did wrong was yank before the big move. Rationale was mkt moving against my trade, and I was shorting a gap up so I wanted to book it. This is good logic and I still believe it's good management, but maybe I should have left just one for the runner. Or, you know what, get MY piece and PEACE!

ROKU eats its young. Huge down day yesterday and gap up today, but inside. When market started to drop, and ROKU tested highs and failed, I went short. Ask went to my target but no fill. I hesitated and didn't yank it (greed, or good probabilities?). Was pretty mad when I rode it back to the top for oversized loss potential. BH market kept dropping. ROKU tested the 215 several times and I was prepared for it to pop (and then hopefully drop). BH again, it flushed without popping and I was able to get out with a different kind of order. Instead of limit order (hard w roku spreads), I did if bid>4.8, sell mkt. I figured I'd get at least 4.8 and maybe more, but I filled at 4.71. Mostly relieved to get out green, and even more relieved that later I see it's the best I could have done.

one trade

Big Fed announcement expected today. Going in, I know I want to get in/get out and not mess around. I'm thinking about previous days where I've hit the opening trade and then squandered gains, so thinking I might just take the first nice gain and walk.

Several picks, but also I'm feeling scared. First trade went in my favor. Market feels funky and I decided to not squander it at all today with a second trade. 9:35, done. After I hit ROKU, I looked at LLY, saw a bottom tail, but I passed. Market continues down and LLY spread too wide. Keep my nice up day and get on with other things.

+6% but coulda shoulda

 Opening NVDA trade had some size and a good gain. Should have quit. XPEV, gave back half those gains.

SSE shows the chop better. How can I avoid these? I think I would either take puts at the top of the range, or on the pop/drop, instead of trying to get the breakdown. BUT... why was this a choppy setup? It gapped into no man's land on a strong down market day. It "should have" flushed, so if it doesn't, that implies there is some strength there. Expanding range, price discovery. AVOID.