Mistaken trade amplifies losses

AMD, not necessarily my setup in the first place, so big smack in the face for that. AMD gapping up with NVDA which was way up on earnings. However both gapping into resistance, so I looked to fade. 

First puts stopped. When it reversed off the top, I tried for new puts, but accidentally bought calls. By the time I realized why I wasn't raking it in, I was down pretty bad and cut it. Tried to find a new entry for the puts I really wanted, but I missed the boat for another loss, instead of nice gain I would have had off the top. <grumble>

need more plays

I need to work on new setups in my playbook. Today I took 3 nms trades. Is that wrong? There was a decent rationale for each, and I traded them with good levels. So I think I need to work on more plays like this. It's hard being a breakout trader these days. That was great in a roaring market, but the market is not roaring most of the time. I need plays for all seasons. 

OXY has an incredibly strong daily chart. Earnings tonight. Others in this sector making good gap above levels moves, but OXY probably waiting for earnings (with potential to do LT breakout on that). Yet, this was still an inside day. Played it tight, don't give up 10% gainer.

AAPL also inside, strong relative weakness, short against level after pop/drop. Tight stop resulted 0, but the trade wouldn't have paid much anyway and did reverse hard. Was it worth taking?

SPY 0dte, inside small range open. Short vwap bounce down. 

Why so harsh?

 Sometimes I get feedback that this trading journal is very harsh. I guess it is. 

Especially when I get out of the habit of journalling everything, I tend to just write about the frustrating things I want to vent about (and learn from). 

Annotating and journaling were the missing piece that helped me finally become a successful trader. Introspecting now, maybe this lapse in journaling discipline is part of my current string of frustration. Am I holding myself accountable enough? Have I become overconfident? 🚩

Seems like some weekend catch up would do me good. 

nms

Sloppy trading today. Stabbed at nms on AAPL and UBER. AMD, 2 trades one short/fade was winner and long (my better setup) was a loser. 

File under: undisciplined day. Trying for what's not there. Maybe some of these would have played right if I had waited for different entry.

Also, fed day today, so don't expect followthrough?

easy come easy go

Great opening trade on UBER. Got that first opening surge. Nice gainers. But then I tried again off vwap (not a bad idea)... and didn't take it off when it failed the new high (definitely a bad idea). Gave it all back. 

Decent Monday

Market inside open after a really strong day Friday. I need to get back into the routine of annotating, logging, journaling.

WYNN gapping into a tangle of mas, so be picky. I thought I got a good entry, but it still gave me a little worry before launching. I trailed below pl target, then trailed tightly as market was simultaneously downtrend.

ROKU, similar to WYNN setup, but ROKU is always a tough trade. I dig give a lot of room, but also glad I took the stop eventually. 15% loss is yuck, but it helps that WYNN was green.

AMZN was on the TraderTV sticky note (for long off 100). After initial pop/drop, it did a 1 min bear flag and I took a small short. Missed the last leg, but still got my pl.

Even though I didn't get allllll the money out of all these moves, I got nice money. I'm content. This is a new sentiment where recently I have been kicking myself a lot for missing "more" or not taking stops in retrospect soon enough. But this is clockwork! and I need to keep remembering that my clockwork trading techniques make me a lot of money over time. Stick with the plan.

remember: zigs no zags, and tight spreads only

The trades I take where I try to "give it room" have been largely a mistake. Maybe they do go farther later, but mostly I get stopped out first. Better to take zigs, no zags, and reenter later if it qualifies.

Worst trade of the day, hacking at META for multiple nicks and cuts that left me net red... and then it went without me.

Best trade of the day, SHOP where I took the first leg for +8% and +107%. Then tried again, half size, for +62%. 

Other trade. Too cute!!!#* Tried to short CAT. Spreads were small when I took it but opened up insanely wide so I couldn't fill at target and then ... guess what I did about stopping?... fml. Still hoping to get out of that not too bad, but not looking good. Another one to consider blacklisting. Can't do these spreads!!!

f'lucky

Very lucky day today.

No great setups. Set my eye on BA for no good reason. NMS. Shorting something strong. I "imagined" there was overhead resistance, and the market was weak, BA pop/dropped in the premkt. Totally idiotic pick. It has wide spreads, the option has insane spreads. Need to blacklist it. 

Market opened strong, BA traded strong. Market weakened, BA didn't weaken. I traded like a total jerk (ignoring stops...). It formed a pennant at the top. It teased down, then shot up for ndh. I held. Out of nowhere (bc testing 150?) it finally fell to pieces and I managed to get out for +10% on first half, then held the back half too long as it retested vwap (bounced halfway back). So took the second half for +10%, given the chance, but then it did make ndl (not shown). Lucky to get out of this even a little green vs painful red.

15 min

Later... 😭

Perfect trades

I'm trying to focus on taking only perfect setups. Yesterday TSM was a great setup, but I jumped too fast, held too long, and then after I took my loss it finally did what I thought. Moral: I should have waited for a more proper setup.

Today, ISRG was great setup, I waited a little, but not enough, for the entry. Had to give a big stop, but then it did go and I got an amazing 131% gainer, including winners in other accounts also. Took those profits toooo soon, but aggressive trading is ONLY for fast_options, and in other accounts I need to take more conservative targets.

Spread on ISRG was very big, so I had to take the stop-limit, having missed a target. Still, helps the account!!

Overstaying

Coming back small after the chaggim. Need to re-sync with the markets

First trade, DIS puts, hit and run. +22% standard bread and butter trade.

Next trade ALLY was the one I really thought would work. Gap on earnings below multi-day base. I didn't fill at target and then ... spreads!!... I didn't take the stop. Then spent the rest of the day sweating it. Until I sold eod for -27%. 

Also got tied up in AMZN which was really nms. Chased in (on nms?!!!). Didn't take the zig. Then got burnt on the zag. Took this loser home bc it was so worthless by eod, why not see if tomorrow is any better.

What I did do right, very small size. So this day was undisciplined but not too painful. Need to get my grip back!

moadim l'simcha

It's been a pretty intense holiday season this year, cutting my trading days but also helping me get a refresh. In general, though, this market churns my stomach. And I think it gets worse. Recent chag was Monday/Tuesday this week and I really expected to come back Tuesday night to see a massive crash. Coming M/T is SA/ST. I still can't rule out a 5% down day.

I've been trading hit and run, and I haven't been annotating or journaling. Skipping journaling is a bad habit to get into, but I'm going to skip out again today. 

Today my day was saved by an economic number that missed at 10:00 and gave a flash break down that helped me get out of a short I failed to take the target on. 

Market had a huge gap down/run up yesterday. Maybe about a 5% range. In a stronger market it would have been a nice bottom, but these days there IS NO BOTTOM. Everything looks like hell and acts like hell. Be skeptical of all rallies. 

I am developing an increasing really sick feeling about my long term portfolio which is in total pain. Really considering leaving the manager. Such a mismatched temperament. Am I getting near capitulation? Maybe yesterday could hold for a while. But the economy is still crap and getting worse. Fed still states it will hike, and expect pain. So... I'm expecting more pain. Ugh.

YESTERDAY

expensive penny

 I stopped out within 1-2 cents of day high, then it flushed out and hit all my targets. F-ker!

weekend update

Market has been "on de face!" Really bad, very strong down. The trading has been great, lots of strong trend days, but the trend is down and lots of pain out there.

My account is near a new big round number and I think I'm mentally struggling against it again. I hope this week I'll be able to cross and keep it.

Some charts. 

SPY 1 year, daily

SPY 5 year, weekly

Tonight I looked through the charts of each of the SP500 stocks. There's a lot of wreckage. Market trend is inarguably down.

another bf down day

Another big F* down day for the market. I hate this bear market. I'm suffering a lot in my long term account where I'm very mismatched temperamentally with what the manager is doing (ie, holding).

When will the market catch any form of a bid? Today is a "day 3" in my view, so could be a reversal day, except people are just dumping everything, abandoning every ship. 

It's Friday, 0dte, so I must hit and run. I'm looking to short new breakdowns that are not over extended, and I'm looking for overextended stocks that could bounce if the market does.

I left a lot on the table today, like yesterday. But on the other hand I had a great green day and the best week I've had in a really long time. Sunday night is Rosh Hashana and I have a lot of other things to focus on. PEACE!

TSLA... I'm always scared to short TSLA. Gapping below the 50mas, but chart is relatively strong in the past several weeks and the gap down is inside the pattern. This is one people will love to buy if there's a bounce. I gave it zero room. Went in small, took my pl on first trade of the day and got out.

Market looked like it might bounce for a minute, and GOOGL hammered strongly, so I tried the long. Didn't get the target, but not hanging around to find out if longs are going to follow through when there is a heavy weight on everything. 

After GOOGL stopped, it was clear to go short again. TSLA was overextended by then (no second try for me), but OXY set up. It was a bit of a tough trade. It didn't flush and the spread was wide. Took my bit and got out. 

PEACE!

Peace!

Yesterday there was a fed announcement and an already bad market sold off hard. Today, a flat-ish open. I looked for stock moves on volume that weren't already extended, or deep oversold ones to buy if there is strength. I also told myself to wait 3 minutes. None of this buy the first or second bar insanity.

AMD gap down below a mini consolidation. Room to go before the June low. Not day over day extended. AMD relative weakness to the market which barcoded for the first 6-7 minutes. Plan was to take 10%, 20%, runner. After taking 10%(ok, 9% after commissions, etc) the market started flushing and I decided instead of taking 20, to trail it with a very tight stop. Cascade selloff for the win. I squeezed my stop to trail the whole thing, and sold on the first sign of strength. 

Yes, there was more downside. But I'm glad I didn't sit through the chop. I got an amazing gain and I got it so easily. A bounce from a cascade selloff can sometimes rip your face off and I wanted to keep my gains so I didn't give ANY room. PEACE!!

Chicken!

I traded like a chicken today. I had all the right picks, all the right ideas. Building on my thoughts from yesterday about up days in a bear market I went for 

MU - short covering in an oversold stock

UAL - weakness in a weak sector

OXY - short the profit taking gap

But I cut all of them way too short, because I was scared!

ugh, later, coulda shoulda...

Bear market mantras

Below is the breakout I tried to play long this morning. It was (what I call...) hard work. That is the feeling that it's just not launching like it was "supposed to". It was a hard climb. It didn't make it to my target. And later I see it failed. 

This is what I want to remember about trading in bear markets: the pressure is down. Everything is heavy as if there is more gravity. Wet blanket on everything. It is a profit taking day for longs, because they are finally getting their chance. It is a stopping out day for shorts, buying to cover.

Breakouts will have no power and are likely to fail. 

Trapped longs will look to sell. A breakout could be manufactured/manipulated as a selling opportunity (realization as I am currently reading Reminiscences). 

On up days in a bear market: shorts will cover, taking profits by buying.

An up day in a bear market is not a wholehearted buying day. It is a short covering day or a profit taking day for longs. There is a lot of selling pressure into the strength (wet blanket on everything). On up days, breakdowns will also not work because it is a short covering (buying) day.

small relief

Yesterday a max loss day, today made it back and more but not before a heart attack. I keep trying to trade moves up. I should be skeptical of bull moves. 

Today I loved the setup on LVS and its one of the stocks I love to trade. I jumped in WAY too early and had serious pain (means, below where I should have stopped...oy!) before it came back and paid me. Even still, at the top, it was "hard work" and I took it off to protect gains rather than letting it really run. I still think it will hit my targets, but I'm out. 

Maybe this is what risk aversion feels like, but I'm apparently not averse to letting it go below my stop, I'm just averse to losing gains. This is literally the opposite of cut losses/run winners. I'm trading like an amateur. Shape up!! I'm much more skilled than that!

Was down maybe 30% at one point. Take profits at -6%, +3%, +9%, +61%, +41%.

Inv h&s ?

I'm terrible macroeconomist. Everyone is talking about retesting June lows, or worse.

My eye sees a potential head and shoulders bottom. Here's hoping, for the sake of long-term shareholders everywhere!

F*k and luck

I traded like an absolute wreck today and only BEH I came out flat on the day. It started with going in bigger than I told myself I would, and then adding. WTAF?!! On an extended setup!! On an inside market day!!! 🔨

I jumped in too early. I yanked the best stop. I would have stopped pretty near the top, but the order didn't trigger and then BARUCH HASHEM literally! it came back down and I still traded like a wreck but was able to get break even on the day. 

So, to phrase it in the positive voice: I must stick to MY BEST SETUP, and trade it SMALL size. I am not smarter than the market.🔨🔨🔨

only a few min later

Tight stop is the right stop

SQ, not my setup. At least I used good stop discipline. When it failed the ndl, I moved my stop down. Not sorry to take a tiny loss and not sit through the chop. Market also about 30 min very tight range. 

trading small

I'm trading small these days. Struggling with various techniques and philosophies... Latest thought:

If I trade small, I need to get what I get. Zigs no zags. That's my bread and butter. When I can trade much bigger, that's when I can get back to doing partials and leaving a runner. I need to earn the right to leave runners by building up with basics.

2% down open

The market opened gap down approximately 2%. Everything extended down. Because of the past several up days, though, the gaps down were back to the middle of boxes. The only way to consider a breakdown was maybe on 60 min. Lots of 60min moves below uptrends, but some of the dailies were strong. What to do?

I watched several weak dailies. Then played it really close. I left a lot on the table, but that could have gone either way. I got green. Peace.

chill out!

I keep pushing where I should take it and taking it where I should push it. This is fear/greed, not rule following. Market has been basically inside for about a week. There should be no pushing. Reversals should be expected.

Build back with a spoon. Small size. Pay myself first. Tight stop is the right stop.

Green day, but too much room for a loser really cut into it. 

a little something

 

fomo

Coming in today, after multi day wild selloff, market gapping up just to resistance. My goal for today, get pltgt and get out. None of this too-cute pressing for more and then getting slapped. 

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue (-Airplane!). I didn't give any smidge of room. Took my profits and ran for a beautiful green Friday. But of course the market today sold off hard and I missed so much. Oy.

This is my ongoing question. Knowing when to press. Ultimately the answer is take and trail. That's clockwork baby! Stick with clockwork. 

backing the wrong horse

I picked LI as my favorite trade today. It had been strangely strong this summer, but this setup looked "perfect." A downtrend with a small base and a clear support level going back to an open gap in May. Below all the ma's. 

It traded like a total jerk. Didn't drop out when the rest of the market tanked. Threw some crazy spikes up, prohibiting a stop/market. And as we speak it will not break with the market. I got out a 17% sliver, and I'm still holding the bulk. 

Little later, everything is falling out of bed, and LI doesn't care. Junkus

Result. TERRIBLE hourly rate on this trade, but at least it was green.

out of sync

I feel very out of sync with the market lately. I'm a little shocked how hard we're selling off and I have not changed mental gears well. In addition, even if I say to myself "be skeptical of rallies," I still find myself trying to pick bottoms, anticipate bull breaks, hold for hope, etc. 

No trades today. But not in a good way. Mostly in a frustrating way like I didn't see it coming, I missed it, etc. 

Holding a lotto IWM call (nms? bottom picking from yesterday). Right now it looks like it will go to zero. Why do I even bother with lottos. Setting a target and leaving my desk.

market sneezes

 Big continuation down today. I call it market sneezes.

Before it really dumped, I took a long on COIN. nms. What the actual F!? Why do I keep doing this? Loser, of course. For no good reason.

$SPX

day after massive move

Friday the markets were destruction. Down 3.5-4%, bearish engulfing and doubled the range it engulfed. This morning, market gap down but I did expect initial buying. There is room below, but the market is so extended now, esp on the 60. So the plan was (take a guess...) wait! I wanted to wait at least to see the opening 5 min range.

Started w COIN puts, from the volume gapper list. Got too itchy. The price was still inside yesterday (that alone should have negated it). Also, the price was still above vwap (and also this alone should have negated it). This was a loss I deserved, but at least I had a decent stop and respected it. Still counts as NMS and not a "perfect trade".

NVDA got completely wrecked Friday. Lots of tickers making this similar pattern/setup to COIN, NVDA, so I was trying to pick the best (worst, for shorts) one. I did wait for NVDA to get back below yesterday's bar. I did wait for the price to crack back below vwap. But I did not give the stop back to day high and I got shaken out. It maybe would not have gone to targets before a tough reversal, but I could have gotten out green. 

Red day.