indeterminate

Today's open seems bearish. No great setups again. Do I have to trade today? Can I stop myself? Maybe this is my remaining major weakness... No great setups in the morning, why not spare myself the grief and walk away. Barring that, keep it extra picky -- I'm already not being picky by being here, hm! -- extra small, one "best pick" and get what I get. Examine why I would even try!

MU is an eh' setup on the daily. Nice gap down, but just into the middle of a traffic zone. Don't expect followthrough.

I waited out the opening move. It failed vwap and I shorted. But it didn't followthrough (see previous paragraph). 

Picks I did not take: AAPL, NVAX.

Market chop this morning seems as confusing as yesterday's chop. There is nothing more for me to do here. 

This weekend is Shavuot. Chag sameach. Back on Tuesday.

full bull, I missed it

I missed the trade today. Chop open. RIVN didn't pay. Nothing else seemed clear. I watched for a while, and all my paper trades were wrong so I was glad. A little after 10, the market caught a bid and didn't look back all day. Looks like a bullish engulfing on the daily, but very low volume. 

RIVN short on the open. It RIPPED against me. I only had a minute to be annoyed until I was just really glad. It rocketed up all day. Tight stop is the right stop.

love how I traded today

I love how I traded today. I did a little more than my usual premkt prep. Can't go wrong with prep. 

I think most credit goes to trading like clockwork. Reasonable sizing (I'm pretty good at this), using stops (I'm good at this too), taking reasonable profits... that's my challenge. Especially with wider spreads. I need to be satisfied with "good" gains with a limit order--esp on a partial--than eating a wide spread on a stop. Peace!

I like how I read APPS. I might have thought it was a short, but I also saw that premkt it stabbed way below the support and recovered quickly to open just at/above support. Waited for a nice long setup, then grabbed what it gave. 

LAC one of my favorite setups, gap below trendline. I noticed after I was in that I had the monthly option (let's be real, it happens). It traded slow and also opened a spread. I took an early target and then when it just whimpered down after that I squeezed the stop way down. It did go lower later, but I don't regret getting my piece and having PEACE!

CRM was the setup of the day. All eyes on it today. Huge earnings gap up above the low box, but right into some overhead levels. Waited for it to stabilize, then grabbed. And didn't mess around. I had a target of 184, which it did eventually hit, but I was not willing to give back good (not great, but solidly good) gains. so I stopped it tight. 

$STUDY is this a cowardly move, to take profits before target bc I can't stand the volatility? hm. In a certain way, yes. But if I'm going to take small positions I need to get what I can grab. If I scale up some day (when?), maybe I would elect to leave a tiny runner on. But only if it was a very small (10%?) proportion of my original position... after locking good gains. Just for icing on the cake. 

get what I get

No pressing today. I noticed I had been pressuring myself to hit a daily target. I was pressing too much and was starting to "hope". There shouldn't be any hope in my trading. Just like there shouldn't be despair. I should trade the now, what's in front of me, on valid patterns. Take my p/l targets. Trail my stops. Don't get too cute.

So today, a very clockwork day. The market was opening slightly down/inside Friday's strong up day. Relevant gappers up were gapping into resistance, and those mostly China names. No great gaps down.

First I shorted BABA on failing at resistance. Other China names in tandem. Didn't fill at target, so I yanked the partial it at the tightest stop. Tried BABA again with another setup, on a tight leash.

AAPL short, similar setup, failing at resistance. I hesitated at the best setup at 9:33 because there was a strong premarket level slightly below. Shorted the break of that level. No target, but I was able to move my stop down and that's where it ended.

SPY calls. 0DTE. Oh how I love this trade. I need to hesitate before taking this trade. Am I bottom/top fishing? I'm not good at that. I need a better setup. Today I was trying to catch the bottom. On the 1 min there was an igniting bar. I did wait for the pb and new pivot high after that, so I'm ok with the setup I took. But it failed at VWAP and I cut it. Although I spared myself riding to the new low, in retrospect (of course!) I should hesitate on that trade when below vwap.

Bottom line, nice green day. Very sane. Very clockwork. Done by 10:11. 

Small risk day

Came in with one last COIN call from yesterday. It's now way itm, with crazy spread and zero volume. Can't mess around. Took a limit order where I could, left a lot on the table but it was not liquid and had to take a decent target.

Again today, setups kind of rough. Took DELL and PDD puts on fade of gap-into-resistance. Both had big spreads, I took about 1/4 my usual size. Took targets. Zigs no zags. 9:45 done for the day with a decent green day and all my sanity in tact. Got my piece. Peace!

shifting tide

Yesterday, the market felt different... buillish, maybe? It's hard to remember what bullish feels like ;). 

Today was a followthrough day for price, but it wasn't a dramatic day. More of a melt-up of shorts covering. Was not a big volume day. Fthrough day wasn't entirely clear at the open. 

My best setups were bearish, and so I did my thing: short when the buyers get exhausted. In retrospect it seems clear what went wrong/right, but at the open it was not yet clear (to me!). 

AAPL looked like it could break down. It dumped into the open. I shorted initial strength. Stopped out for a C trade (straight into the red). Thursday stops can hurt.

SNOW was my pick of the day. Big gap down on volume. I waited for the bounce, then shorted. It formed a pattern that ... obvious now... I should have stopped much sooner, but my mind said "don't stop out on the spike."...that advice is not good for me. I'm going to call it a D trade bc it was outsized loss. At least I refrained from tilting. I took that stop, regrettably higher, but good thing I did get out because what started as a 11% gap down, traded full bull into the green for the next 3 hours with no decent outs.

When I [finally] admitted to myself that the market was full bull, I went for COIN long (in retrospect, nms, maybe why it tormented me). Opened with a starter then added. Spread was wide (why do I do this to myself?), and I didn't take the out at 10:25/30. So I rode it flat for unbearably long. Finally got out when it moved again. 

Today was a good reminder that Thursday (and Friday!) burn both ways. Winners and losers are amplified. Most of all, if I keep the losses small-ish, it is easy to overcome them with winners.

Green day.

14 day win streak broken

 Losing day today, to end my streak of 14 consecutive winning days. 

I traded like clockwork. I like all my picks. I like how I managed them. But I didn't make money. Three C+ trades (normal loser, but not max loss). Peace.

Another inside market open. Waiting for fed minutes. Wait for trades, then take quickies.

No great setups on screeners. I think all this together, maybe I should have aimed for 10% pl today. It would have helped me somewhat. Hindsight.

fast_options!

Yesterday was hard money. Today was easy money!!

2 great picks that played out for A trades right away. 9:43am and I'm not going to take any more risk today! I have plenty of cash, and it might turn out to be a fomo day, but I also have a lot to do away from my desk. I got my piece today easy and I'm walking away happy! 

hard work

Trading was hard work today! I know that sounds funny, but they do say "trading is the hardest way to make easy money."

XPEV was a beautiful candidate today. Gap down, below levels, on earnings. But it didn't puke, and the spread made it hard to get paid. I basically broke even for all the stress.

NVDA was a short candidate, but when the initial short failed, I grabbed a quick long. The second short did ok. 

SPY today expirations icing on the cake again today.

Late morning moves

Past few days, seems like the market struggles and chops for an exceedingly long time at the open before it finally makes its move. 

Today I hacked in LI and ROST before SPY finally did the job. 

At a point where I thought to double down on ROST, I had the decent sense to remind myself not to go bigger in something that's not working...go find something that is working. 

Another really clear lesson especially of the last few days: keep the losses small, so they're not hard to redeem with winners.

the ugly

Thursday is usually my favorite trading day. But today was tough. I wonder if I should be more wary of Thursday before monthly options expiration, and/or market participants trying to keep everything in a range after yesterday's huge drop.

I eeked out a green day. The good: very small positions. The bad: I overtraded and mostly just chopped around esp in the opening volatility. 

Also the market chopped frustratingly.

Learn: After I made 2 losing tries in the opening minutes, I should have either walked away, or just sat tight for different kinds of entries. 

Ended up trading QQQ both long and short over lunch to make back what I lost on BABA, AMD, FB. 

Another way to know I overtraded? So many trades, and ending so late in the day (1:20!) that I don't want to annotate charts. Picture this... chop/loss/try again/loss/chop/small winner/big winner... mentally exhausted trader.

I think I sit out tomorrow and let the mental crazies wind down.

Phew!

Made a big recovery today. Was down within a whisper of max loss, but closed up nicely. Thanks, again, to bollinger bands for helping me stay in a trade that's working.

A few minutes later, as I write this, the absolute dump happened without me. Did I trade it too tight bc I wanted to stay green? Probably. No regrets about that. It's after 11:30 already. I was in these longer than I like to be, went through some pain first and not going back to the red! 

I respected my levels. Ignoring levels is usually a recipe for disaster. Heard something wise: Have to only trade the now. Can't trade the past. Can't trade the future. Can only trade what is going on right now.

Did I trade the past by squeezing down to preserve gains? Maybe. But the way I look at it is at first, the stocks didn't immediately do what I thought would happen. So if it's not entirely behaving according to patterns, why should I give too much leeway?

Also the market is down 2-3%... why would I assume it would go lower vs bounce? Didn't want to sit with the risk any longer.

eating spreads

Market gap up today, day 3 (reversal bottom, follow through, gap). Based on the patterns into the screeners, even the strongest gaps up are into resistance, or not even overcoming resistance. Trade of the day may be short initial strength.

First trade was BABA calls. A few days ago it broke down the trendline then came back in. I think it might test the resistance downtrend and there is room there for calls. I got in late, and didn't wait around. Loss #1 (C trade). Then I started seeing gappers failing. Reversed to puts, but the first try didn't work (C). Second try I took off highs and got a B trade.

NVDA was also on my list to fall apart on this "up is down" day. I passed on the puts after the second high--though that has been a winning setup lately in general. Finally got in too late and ate the spread there. Second try was the win (B+).

Market volatility continues to be tough, and I'm adjusting by trading smaller. Trading smaller helps me take multiple trys on an idea, while cutting losses small. Of course I love a good A++ day! But B days also pay the bills.

Zigs no zags.

MOCO and DC area traders!  Bring your trading buddies and join us on Tuesdays. This is a friendly professional networking group for individual daytraders. https://meetup.com/potomac-daytraders-network/

inside day

Inside market day today. We've had a multiday/week selloff and a pivot+ft last week. This morning, inside. A pause day? Even so, day ranges are big enough to trade... carefully.

AAPL premkt and opening weakness. Hated it that the bar that stopped me then immediately dropped out. The next few minutes it whipped wildly and I'm happy to avoid that. Even on the 9:45 drop, didn't get to my target. Simultaneously the market and chips (AMD, NVDA) bouncing hard. Have to cut losses and move on.

NFLX is practically unredeemable on daily. Retested high and then puked. I held for an uncomfortable bounce and sort of regretted it. When the next leg stalled, I cut out. Peace. 

MOCO and DC area traders!  Bring your trading buddies and join us on Tuesdays. This is a friendly professional networking group for individual daytraders. https://meetup.com/potomac-daytraders-network/

bounce day

The market finally giving a bit of relief today. 

...And I tried to short COIN, which opened up something like 18%. Because? It will reverse off the 5ema, my "thinking". Hey, why not short something weak? It did show relative weakness all morning, but I also shouldn't be surprised it failed to break down intraday. Ugh. On a Friday. 

Proper bias this morning should have been: long after profit taking pb.

Red day. Deserved it.

One last put still open on a wild hope it goes itm.

MOCO and DC area traders!  Bring your trading buddies and join us on Tuesdays. This is a friendly professional networking group for individual daytraders. https://meetup.com/potomac-daytraders-network/

melt down vs capitulation

Oy this market! Agonizing meltdown with no relief. And yet no capitulation/panic. Vibe is more of a prolonged rolling doom.

Market action today is strong whips. I didn't have any setups. Lost 2% on SPY puts in the open and called it quits. 

bbands and staying in

I've been experimenting with Bollinger Bands on all timeframes. What can bbands do for me?

So far, bbands have helped me stay in winning trades longer. During a trade, I am inclined to look at my pl and think "That's enough! I need to lock it in before it evaporates." And close a trade too early. 

Bbands are helping me look at a trade and realize... ok, that's normal volatility, I'm ok, I'm ok, I'm ok...

Today, BABA (which, maybe I shouldn't have been in in the first place) eventually established a trend. It never dropped out dramatically. It just kept eroding and eroding. The kind of thing where I'm likely to tighten down too early. *Sometimes this is correct to do, like on a Thursday or Friday when I lose time quickly and won't gain in absence of a strong trend.

Today I did stop out of half of BABA for a loss, but I was able to hold the other half for a nice ride into green. Looking at the bands (2sd and 3sd) on the 5- and 1-min, BABA stayed "in the river" and also below the midline most of the time. When it tested the top bands on the 1-min and bounced back down, that's a new lower stop. 

Eventually, BABA really simmered down to pretty flat and the market tried a bounce so I took it off. If not for bbands, I'm pretty sure it would have been a red day today. 

not bull enough

Market opening big gap up today, but relative to things lately, it is still inside yesterday's meaningful bear day. Action is not bull enough. I'm looking for shorts off highs.

Plenty of gaps up on the screener, but most are inside, even if they are +3% gaps. The gaps down screen are -20% and more.

NVAX excellent setup. Got a great entry, but then the spread opened up to 30%+ on the option. I was lucky to get out for pltgt and don't look back (well... looking back, I would have gotten wrecked)

BABA is poised for major tl breakdown. It flusssshed on the open. Grabbed micropause and then traded it tight. Didn't get pl, but got out green. Peace.

MSFT I wanted the 270 breakdown again. I think the setup is valid, but it didn't work. Maybe gave it too much room, but don't regret that (eh... much).

Today I'm looking forward to the first Tuesday noon trader meetup that I started. Hope to meet some great people. 

"The Art" and stops

2 trades today, FB and NVDA. On FB I minded my stop. On NVDA I gave more room. Why? 

FB trade I got in really fast/early. It dropped out and then reversed hard immediately. Adhered to my stop. Later it did what I wanted, but that was after a while of an actual uptrend and holding vwap, etc. I didn't know that at the time, so I could only act on the immediate full reversal bar.

NVDA, why did I hold puts for new highs? First of all I was in somewhat smaller and had a better entry, so I didn't have to trade it so tightly. Interesting!! That's something I don't show on the charts. NVDA is weaker on the daily and doing a more promising breakdown (so, why wasn't I in davka bigger? minding my risk). It still didn't feel good, but it wasn't crossing p/l thresholds. 

NVDA exit: I am working on trying to go smaller/hold longer, so when it got to the pl tgt, I tightened my stop but didn't trim. I was trading for a stock price target. It made the ~175 area target easily and did only a small pause before going to the 174 area target. Looking at bollinger band charts to try to help me $$volatility, and it stopped riding the 3sd band on the 5 also touched the 2band on the daily (source of the targets anyway). Captured much more on this trade than I would have with the 20% first target. But more info needed to rely on this.

no bids

The market can not get a grip. At this point, even though I'm raking it in, I'm very uncomfortable about the big picture of the market. We're on the precipice. It has seemed this way for several days. Wednesday's wild run up after the fed announcement was a glimmer of hope, but we gave that back the next morning and much much more. 

This is different from my other feelings of "panic" at lows we've bounced off. This is more like looming doom. A feeling that it's inevitable, so how much is it going to hurt? 

If they say "hold your nose and buy" then is now the time to buy? Ugh. We know I'm not good at picking bottoms. I would only long-term add/buy when my market sentiment changes. I don't need to pick bottoms. 

I've had a few stellar days lately, tucking away some gains. Today caught the opening selloff on NVDA. Was not on my screeners. Meir pick. It's Friday in a crazy climate, so I got the flush and got out!
(as I write this 90 min later, nvda bounced hard and is~191, up 1% on the day. Must lock gains!)

Holding for hope

Market getting crushed today. 

Yesterday was a stinking weak day until the fed came out and lifted markets about 4%. Today, wiped out. Opening 2 hours were nothing but red. Really a blood bath. No bids.

I picked W today and went a bit too big on it (bc thin spready option... will I learn?) and hoped for a Thursday gem.

I got almost 20% in the opening push, then held. I wanted 30% out of this (greed!!), and the ask got there easily but no fills. Then I held with a bracket.

Pause to relate: I'm trying to see what bollinger bands and RSI can do for me. Can this help me stay in trades longer? What I think I've learned so far is that it's ok for it to test the opposite band and still be in "reasonable volatility" vs trend change. Will continue to test this.

Back to our story... I may have gotten lucky this time, but I took the attitude that "I hold for hope when the trade goes too far against me, why can't I hold for more when the trade is doing exactly what I think?" So I held and held (and went out to Costco), and held for what I had always believed was an ambitious but entirely reasonable stock price target. 

B"H! I got it and had a great green day. 

With that said, the "easy" money would have been otm puts on the indices at the open, but that's hindsight. 

5 min

1 min

pop and drop

Today there were a few decent long picks. None worked. OXY Category C loss. MRNA D loss (is there another kind of loss on MRNA?). Ugh.

green to red

 Standard green trade in the open on WDC. Got the opening move, pltgt, tight stop on stall as maket reversed. Textbook.

Then gave it all back an more on MOS "failure to fail". MOS setup was valid. Gap down on volume. Traded up, then faded with market fading, but when it reversed sharply, I got trapped bc huge spread (yanked my stop, wtf!). I need to just avoid the huge spreads. I'm not "too smart" (and not lucky enough!) to outplay massive spread.

I'm not getting a lot of setups for my breakout trading... for a long time now. I need to work on another technique. Maybe a mean-reversion technique / bollingerband plays maybe. Probably also need to invest in TC2000 so I can screen for whatever I want intraday.

The gift of the p&l target

Two trades today. Each off in full for p&l target. Done by 9:36. 

FB I had 202, 207 levels above. It pushed up strongly at open. I grabbed a small position, took it off for +20% and it stalled/reversed right after, while the the market was also rolling over. In retrospect (at 11am) I can see that it held the day low (even while market flushed) and went strongly to 207 and beyond, but I have no regrets making 20% in 2 min and not suffering the pb.

Simultaneously, the market started to weaken so I looked for a short there and I got the flush. 20% pl target and 9:36 I walked away. I've been trading the near exp SPY options a lot lately, for a feeling that nothing else is setting up. Over the weekend I was thinking how I tend toward that in a lazy way. That I should be looking to play relative strength/weakness and not the index itself. The same-day expiration, though! Gambler mentality?