Grading trades: A frank talk w Dad

To describe to Dad how my trading is going, I categorized my trade outcomes:

Trade outcome A: I get my p&l target and subsequent higher exits

Trade outcome B: I get a pl tgt, then it fails and the back stops

Trade outcome C: No pl tgt, trade goes entirely against me ("normal loss")

Trade outcome D: outsized loss.

The problem with D trades is not only the outsized loss, but the way I am prone to tilt afterwards and have not just an outsized loss but a devastating losing streak. Let's be clear: I bring that on myself.

The prevention is the same as the cure TRADE SMALL SIZE. 

not humble enough!

Tried COIN. Got first part out, then it dissolved. 

BABA puts... still in that and not dropping with the market. In fact, no trend bgadol on the 60. This could be a shshow, tbd. Need 109 asap.

humble, nervous this morning

Feeling humble and nervous this morning. Counterbalance to recent overconfidence. 

Friday trading. I have a chance to do great ... or get burned. 

Looking at:

BBBY - meme stock. fading hard off early morning surge. What's the play? Maybe off the hourly levels. Or maybe inside bar and stay away.

MARA/COIN - gaps above bottom/downtrend patterns. This should be my best setup today. 

BABA/PDD/JD/BEKE - China exhaustion selling off huge 2-wk runups. Fade strength with caution.

NIO/XPEV/TSLA - fading, buzzing, but not really my setup.

Good to do this analysis. MARA running up 9:27. I hope I can catch it. Watch out for exuberance pricing in the option in the open. Wait for pb. Consider scaling in.

did not trade, example

KBH was my favorite setup premarket. I didn't trade it only because the options didn't open right away. Looking at the action I missed, I got lucky to be excluded from it. The opening drop wouldn't have paid and I probably would have eaten it hard on the reversal. BH I didn't get involved. Is there a lesson I can take? 

Maybe again, don't expect things to run on inside days. 

Maybe again, tight stop is the right stop. 

 

greed on inside bar = insanity!

Did I not remind myself this morning to avoid inside bars?! 

And then I grabbed GME and screwed around with it on an inside day? Passed on several stops that could have kept me green = greed/insanity.

I deserved that loss, and it was a big one, giving me a red day.

JD was the first trade of the day, though. That also went hard against me at the open. JD was not an inside bar, but THE MARKET was inside. 

On an inside day, repeat to myself over and over... don't expect this to trend... the bar is inside.

I was down big in JD at a certain point, but on average got out ok. Flushed it away on GME.

morning prompts

Reminders to myself this morning:

Just say no to nms (not my setup)

Just say no to inside day bars

Thursday... stay chill, don't get cute

behaviors to notice, not just greed

Today a red day, ending an 8 day win streak. Today I lost less than 1%, after having been up 5%. Regrettable, but not bad. I was pushing for market reverse down day today. Pushed too hard. Pushing too hard I recognize is a sign of overconfidence. It backfires. Need to always trade clockwork and don't get too cute. Pushing for more than my piece is a red flag.

$STUDY: in counter-trend trading, don't push. Take what I get. 

It's pretty arrogant to think that a strong market will suddenly fall apart. Take what I get.

Psychology: I was feeling super-confident and doing some behaviors that I recognize as over-confidence. Ex: reading too many trading posts, watching too many trading videos, something I call "counting my money". For some reason I've noticed that when I do these slightly "obsessive" behaviors usually in context of a win streak, it's an over-confidence indicator about myself and I'm about to fall on my face. I even said to myself this morning "this is how I act when I usually break the streak." But I didn't do enough to stop myself.

Opening trade on GME, I let 30% turn into 9% bc greed. 

Second trade on GME, counter-trend, I didn't take a reduced stop bc the p/l wasn't good enough = greed.

AMD, traded around that one all morning (on nms?!!), hoping for destruction that didn't come (of course!). Got a price target but not a p/l target on partial, then didn't tighten down when I got another chance.

Note to self: I can't just trade whatever I want. I need to trade MY setups. That's how I make MY money. Clockwork.

taking stops

Learning my own lessons, today on my last trade (second time in UPST), I thought it would be more juicy. Tried to hang in, but it didn't break day low and I had to take the stop. I tried placing a lower stop, but it ran past before I could get the order entered. Had to stop higher(worse). Get what you get. 

On the first UPST trade, though, did nicely. 

MARA, bread and butter trade.

PDD... shouldn't have been in that. Inside bar. Tried to get on the china stocks bandwagon. That was a waste. It doesn't matter that it did go up. It was not my setup while it was still an inside bar. When I trade nms, I can't expect my usual techniques to work! 

8 green days in a row. Tremendous gains. 

How can I stay in this zone? 

Stick with clockwork. 

peace

Market has been outrageously strong for 3 days. Today, SPY bumping 200dma and QQQ bumping 50s. What to trade? First of all, be careful! Careful means small, slow, wait.

BA can move. Today it looked weak, below mini uptrend fin and below fastest ma's. Took a normal position, then added for oversize. It didn't feel like I was going to get my pl target bc price support on premkt, so I took a price target (181.13), then squeezed the stop. 12% avg on oversized position not too shabby. BA dropped when the market rose in the open. But when the market started dropping, BA didn't give out. Time to tighten.

SHEL daily downtrend has been on my radar. Today volume gap above some of the various dt lines. BA had my full attention for a while, but when I saw a decent pb and bounce I tried it for ndh. The option was monthly for April so didn't move too well, but I got 20% anyway on more than half bc unattended. Exited on raised stop. 

Can't complain!

holy quackamoley!

 NVDA launched straight up today and I am raking it in!

BA-BAM! What a trade. Last piece out. What - a - trade!! I still have a ton of cash left but I am DONE! Don't want to do anything here on quad-witching to mess this up. The rest of the day is golden!!

Obviously there was more on the table, but that wasn't my money. I had a fabulous trade.

trade, then go have a day

!פורים שמח 

Came in for a quick trade. TSLA massive win! Back to the day's activities.

Charts maybe later

beware the last trade of the day

I have a bad habit of giving the last trade of the day too much room. I trade in a cash account, and when I'm out of cash, I'm done. I don't want to be done. I typically lose more than win on that last trade when I give it too much room. Just take the same smart stop as I know to do. 

MU good daily setup, less relative weakness than others moving big today. Somehow I avoided stopping out on that spike down, but when it instantly recovered I added. Market shaped up too then, and this turned into my moneymaker trade of the day.

NVDA...I think I lose more than win in this ticker. I should go smaller or avoid. I would say my stop was too tight, but if I had given low of day I would have stayed in. That's not the answer, though. In retrospect, the real entry at 9:52 seems obvious (join my new firm "Retrospect Trading" 100% win rate!). With a stop against the low... size position accordingly.

$STUDY: I need to trade against pivots. Where was my pivot? I can't just pick a random 1-min doji candle to stop against (that's too cute) I need a real pivot to stop against. 

BABA... Gapped "too much" and dropped straight out at the open. Tried for a short on vwap failure as market weakened, but took an L and gave too much room. At least, as a step in the right direction, I stopped half where I "should"... though to counter that I gave the back half too much room. That's probably a wash. 

Nice green day, though.

What to trade w no gap setups

No great gaps this morning. What to trade? So I tried to short weakness. Of course I hoped for the daily breakdown, but still have to trade on facts.

Got lucky on the opening FB trade, weakness off the top. Took that target! I was surprised at first that I took off more than half (having placed that order in a rational moment, apparently, vs a more greedy moment). Turned out great to lock that, as back part didn't exit nearly as well.

FB trade made my day amazing. Subsequent trades to be small, not to mess it up. 

Looking for AMD break of 100, but NVDA setup looked better. Chickened out of NVDA, then tried AMD which also didn't work. 

Follow up - Can't try to stubbornly hold!!... I was so bummed to stop out, but look at these launch! Do I wish I had it long? I don't think that's my trade, but maybe I should look into a setup like, "refusing to break down".

Volatility is the land of expanding ranges

Trying to learn the lessons of trading extra volatility. I've been mentioning shorting the "second high" or trading the second setup. I'm seeing more and more these expanding ranges and AMD today was a perfect example. Trendlines work! The second high is an extended trendline of the highs (may include premarket). 

Stochastics also matter. A lot. I'm not sure I can elaborate yet on exactly what's different. Seems like the 5 min stochs need to cycle. Don't fight the 5 min stochs. Wait for it to cycle and don't be afraid of the expanding range/test against my bias.

I've been getting burned on trying to short the "h" on 1 min setup when the 5 min stochs are oversold and I'm losing. This is another way of looking at the expanding range. A low, a bounce (ex, to vwap) and the new low bounces off an extended trendline that is the boundary of the expanding range. The rejection can be strong.

Something else to note about volatility is that despite the big price swings, the option spreads are bigger and there's a lot of exaggeration in the pricing. So believe it or not, it seems harder to get my pl tgt 20% in volatility environment. Consider going for pl(1) 10-15%, pl(2) 20-30%...

Back to AMD, see yellow dots (black chart), the trade was short, but volatility bounced it for a new high first, and rejected off the expanding range (trendline! white chart) I got a small gainer off that. Coulda shoulda waited for the 5 min stochs to cycle to get the great trade. 

SPY failed short... lucky for small loser. Was this a good trade. I think yes in that I waited for a bounce, but today it didn't work. 

Thursday a waste

Missed the open today bc life stuff. Found 2 short setups I thought I liked heading into lunch. Neither played out, then quit. Better luck tomorrow.

not exactly followthrough

Today is an arguable reversal day - big selloff yesterday, today opening near (but not above!) yesterday high. 

In a strong market, ZIM is a beautiful blue sky high breakout. I thought it could go, bc market is having a strong day (amid bear mkt = be skeptical of all rallies). It didn't pay in the open. Second trade total disaster. Even with v.small size, it hurts!

LAC also looked good for a setup, but it didn't pay in the open.

I got a bit on a SPY short, but this day so far is all in the gap. Regular hours, tiny range. 

Brother trade

 No great picks this morning, but market in such a desperate place. Watch for a capitulation selloff? Go small. Wait for the "second setup".

Market traded hell'a whippy this morning. Keep careful eye on setups. Don't yank stops.

NIO was on tradertv.live watchlist for breakdown Not my usual setup, and hello? I didn't wait for the second setup. Not sure I love my entry. Tried to stay in. Didn't take small profit when it wavered. Didn't ever get to my target. Got out on reduced stop, and saved myself the agony, but still took a loss bc I bought into opening volatility (exaggerated price). 

NVDA was an interesting trade. Continuation gap, also looking for a breakdown. But also, I was watching AMD, a brother stock. Lots of eyes on AMD for break below 100. Need to keep an eye on that while trading NVDA today. 

I waited for NVDA second high to short. And used an uptrend connecting highs for initial stop. See another high a few min after my entry, but stayed below the uptrending resistance line (not shown). NVDA did break below previous lows, but AMD couldn't crack the 100 so I squeezed my stop so tight! I had a dream target of 202, but need to trade the facts and so glad I didn't hang around!

Defying gravity

GILD ate my lunch today. Gapping down below everything. Entered too hastily (too cute!) and gave it too much room.  Even a small trade hurts when you don't cut right. This thing is up strong while the rest of the market dissolves. 

SPY doing "what I thought" but with more volatility than I can ride. So I got 2 small pieces. If I would have held, I'd be at about double by now (today expiration). But, I know that can burn both ways see GILD! Get my piece. 

ES, poked above 60min downtrend but SPY didn't follow through daily doji reversal, so buh-bye...

Last week in review

Last week, red week. Also a very busy week personally. Maybe I didn't focus enough on good picks, good planning, focus on new lessons of volatility (goes against you more than you think). But also we had 4/5 days last week in a tight box and I let myself get churned.

This week focus is on TREND. Is there a trend? Do I have good odds? Is this a time to press or lay low?

This morning after almost 2% off overnight, we are almost flat for the open. Back into last week's range, failing to continue Friday's [arguable] breakdown. Futures are trading above 2 day hourly downtrend but still red.

Current assessment for today is to start small! 

goes against you more than you think

LCID was my best pick of the day.  Premkt plan: Daily reject resistance on earnings, gapping below green bar and below a (sort of) level. Can run up to 26 before reversing? Target in the low 23's.

Started by accidentally buying calls instead of puts. Ate the spread but got the heck out of those.

Then entered puts late. It went to my 20% pl target, but I was so cute, I thought I was going to get more (on my late entry!) to start to cover for my opening loss. So I did take a partial, but worse than I hoped bc trying to hold. In retrospect, 23.38 low was exactly what I should have been looking for (see premkt plan). I just didn't think it would reverse so strongly afterwards.

It went against me "more than I think", which I rode. The market started dropping, but this junkus hept holding on. I was hesitant to let it go. I did take stops as I tried to hold it, but eventually it went to a level I just had to cut the rest. As it is now, it's trading up almost to 26, so I'm glad to be out. Just wish it had all gone differently.

Red day.

Followup... LCID day high 25.75. Would I trade it below vwap at this point? Market continues to fade/inside.

death by COIN

What the heck, self!!?

Opening trade, RUN was ok, in that I had a great setup and got my piece.

Then I got all bunged up in COIN. Totally lost my head. Looking back, I don't think I even really had a plan on the daily chart... should have been: avoid!

First of all, despite the gap, it was trading INSIDE previous day. That means I never should have touched it in the first place. 

AND have I not learned over and over to gauge it around the VWAP?!

I'm not sure I can even explain what drew me to the short, except the gap down open. The inside gap should have just invalidated it, but I got greedy and imagined destruction below. Instead I got destruction on self! Initial short was somehow failure to move up. Was my initial stop too tight? Could I have gotten out green on that short if I held in? But then I reversed long, also viewing stronger green volume bars on 1 min. But I didn't hang in for the long either. 

With a little bit of money left (another situation where I'm likely to give too much room... the last ditch flyer), I took a farther otm put and then gave it room bc the delta was so small. Then another FATAL FLAW I got too cute and kept moving my stop out, ultimately stopping close to top tick... bc that is literally the punishment for yanking stops--I get out at the worst tick.

Red day. I deserved it. I did not trade like clockwork today. $STUDY

Closing February +85%, but it really coulda'shoulda been more. 

Fast Friday

Do I dare to trade on a Friday? Only if I'm willing to trade small, and with tight stops.

Today's trade is precarious, will the market hold onto the highs of yesterday's extreme run up, in context of a downtrend, and below the 5dma?! In the sense that the mkt was way oversold, maybe. In the sense that some levels need to be retested, maybe not.

Rule of the day, don't give room! Do it right away or get the blast out.

SQ paid out of the gate. Ran through my 20% pl target before I even got the order in so BH I grabbed even more. Tried it again later for vwap bounce, that didn't work.

UPST was on gap screener, but I don't see the gap on the chart. Maybe this is a function of a stock that trades such huge ranges, a 2% gap is barely visible. $STUDY. Consider if I need a bigger gap on a bigger ranging stock. Stock is spready, option is spready. Can't give room! Tried the long above VWAP but it failed and I bailed! Reversed for short and (greed!!) aimed for 40% pl, which I got (39% counts bc trading increments). Then it didn't follow through and spread widened to almost $2 on a $5 option so I had to get what I could with a market order (while watching lvl2). Lucky I hit +/- mid and did ok. [Update, thinking about this more later in the day, when I see that it's run back up, this could be another case of a "pull back more than I think" it should.]

And then get out of here! Opening setups are played out, I got my piece--today with a great deal of "luck"--and I'm shutting it down.

+13% week. I wish for 20%+, but won't knock this at all. Won't get rich quick, but might get rich slow.

illusions of grandeur

Today the market opened with a ~3% gap below the previous interim pivot. Premkt I felt a panic about LT accounts. Put in stops, and approached my trading account with a ton of caution. Trade tiny, if at all.

Ignored the gap scanners and went to the straight volume scanner. 
TSM gap down right to long term level and flushed on open. Following the flush, a run up "higher than expected"... learning my lesson from the past several days. Then I shorted against a level. Took that first p/l target despite illusions of grandeur. Stopped where I should (...despite illusions of grandeur). Peace, and also looking back later was very right to do. 

MRNA strong on weak day. Very big spread on options as usual (so why even try??). Need to try to preempt and need to take those targets. Started with preemptive call. Tight stop. Failed. Tried puts for intraday steep trendline break. Failed, but hung in to my stop while simultaneously starting a new long position. Took the p/l target bc esp here, take those gift horses. 

Loved the ongoing runup and held illusions of grandeur. but on that top tail I had to either tighten up or go for the ride. Today is no day to go for a ride, and MRNA is no stock to ride a zag. Was at first disappointed to stop (classic emotion). Later, glad. Tight stop is the right stop.

Pleased with my decisions today. +11% on account. Peace.

EOD update. Holy cow!

Lizard brain trader (LT)

(see also previous post, use the brain)
Saga of the lizard brain trader (long term account edition). Morning update on today's freakout gap down open. Decided on stops premkt and placed them. Down open traded almost immediately up. I'm not sure this is capitulation if the panic flush happened overnight. Meanwhile, my head is more clear. I will reevaluate my stops now that I'm more rational.

OMG!! Lizard brain end of day update

Was today the capitulation day? On Jan 24 I did not feel fear. Today, definite lizard fear. Equally important pivot is in. A definite lower low, but an unmistakable pivot.

use the brain (LT inv)

(see also next post, Lizard brain trader)
Premarket, SPY down almost 3% premkt, breaking strong through pivot low from January. What a freaking mess. I'm a daytrader, but I also have friends, family, self with long term accounts. Absolutely everything is dropping out.

I'm psyching myself out now. Lack of composure. On one hand, dump! On the other hand, red dog reversal?. On the other hand, does this feel like capitulation (no)? Otoh, I thought I was going to hold "forever". Otoh really?, absolutely no line in the sand? Otoh, if I sell here and it bounces, I can always buy back; if I don't sell here, am I willing to see where it goes? Dumb money will panic here? Russia invaded Ukraine / geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation. ... 

I've been doing this forever. Why am I indecisive here? Why is this not clear to me? Why did I wait so long? Why can't I engage my rational brain and make a decision?

Market could open down 3%. Could it go down 5%? Sure. Could it go down more? Yes. Would that be the capitulation flush to buy? ...eh...  Brain says "just sell. stop the pain." Another part of the brain says set a stop somewhere... why didn't I set a stop further above?...why didn't I hold onto those puts?... am I panicking? Is this capitulation? Am I too experienced to feel capitulation, or do I have the same lizard-brain as everyone else?

Let's pull this s#!t together before the open. I feel fear/panic. That means I need to sell some to ease up on my emotions. Don't try to micromanage... just put in the order and don't look back for a while. I've already missed the point of "optimization." Now I'm just part of the herd.

oy this market

Sad for long term holders. This market is utter pain for longs.

I got DDOG short. Needed a better entry for more gains here. This is new pattern I'm noticing... the shorts run MUCH higher than I think before reversing. OR they drop out too fast to catch. Maybe I need smaller positions and then adds. Or stop and try again.

MOS. Really, the one stock that went up today?

SPY, right idea wrong time. Was already oversold. After the *bigger than expected bounce, the thing fell apart. 

Red day.