ROKU eats its young

Nice opening trade on INTC. Burned both ways on ROKU huuuuge gap down on earnings. As I know, ROKU is hard to trade.

I liked the short entry, but I got burned on this thing I've been noticing about not waiting enough for the break through vwap. Obv in retrospect, but the 10:07 vwap break was the play.

Red day. Green week.

Standard green day

Not a stellar green day, but +5% is a really good gainer. Follow my rules. Don't knock 5%. If I can consistently pluck out 5%, or even 2%, esp quickly! with low stress! I'll be soooo golden.

I like my picks. I like where I passed (DASH), I like where I waited (FSLY) I like how I cut small losses (NVDA). 

Hit and run. I have amazing plans later today! Peace.

Passed on DASH calls. B"H

Checking back later, I did just fine.

nice quick money

 UPST gorgeous setup. Gapping above the 50s. But very volatile, very spready. Waited for pullback. It +/- held the 50ema. Entered small (at? not exactly above the vwap, see recent post). Added above vwap. Got gorgeous first exit and then tried to hold. Missed the second fill on a limit order but also second exit on stop not shabby and definitely no regrets.

Beautiful opening trade. Colonoscopy day so I'm going to take my money and shut it down. 

A little later...

not my day

 Not my day. For one, travelling at the open.

Initial RIVN trade was on the phone. Super-small size... which is part of why I held against better wisdom. Sold some, added later, then ultimately tightened stop too much and missed the big move (which, as of now, still hasn't made it to my p/l target). 

SQ trade was placed from my desk. Market pushing resistance and looked to be weakening. I looked for a short. Thought I got a nice setup for a short, but it didn't push down enough. Stopped out for +$6 gain, basically 0%. Not even lunch money!

Market is very narrow range today. 
Lower high is confirmed in recent days.
Today is a bounce off a potential higher low.
View everything skeptically.

$STUDY study study!

Paper trading Z long. 

Market is inside day and really choppy. 

Z earnings I wanted a bullish play but it didn't work, the initial hammer off 54 (level I wanted to hold). When it couldn't push above 55, I stopped for a loss then tried the short. It went to +20% but I passed on the partial, then stopped for another loss. I don't regret those trades (well, except passing on the partial), esp in light of market action at the time.

However... later around 10:25 I saw it looking like the uptrend I hoped for. But this time it would be a trade above the vwap. I paper traded it and haval! that would have been a really nice winner.

Trying to deduce a lesson. For a long/calls trade, I need that pullback/resume, but maybe I should be more careful to get back above the vwap first. 

chop for red day

Bigger down day than I would have liked, but still super green week. Most important is self-discipline and clockwork, and I was about a B+ on that today.

AFRM. Gap down, for continuation but still within massive range. Waited for the sellers to exhaust and then got puts. Didn't follow through where I hoped, but hope doesn't matter. Just technique. Took my target, took my stop. Disappointed but green, and after that it reversed hard so I don't regret it.

Z... ugh. Big gap up on earnings, above box, but right into the 50mas. Waited for sellers to exhaust and entered on hammer off a decent pb level. Held through a lower low. While the market was surging Z was struggling. I actually said to myself, "Why it this having such a hard time?" Obv, that's bc there are overwhelming amt of sellers. It got above 55, I tightened my stop and planned to reverse. The reverse also didn't follow though well.

$STUDY Maybe I should have only gone long if it not only bounced off the level I liked, but also got back above vwap?

So that's a wrap. A bit oversized total loss on day. Is that bc Friday? I don't think I was undisciplined. Also the trades I passed on wouldn't have been winners. Just not a day for my type of trading.

FOLLOW UP MUCH LATER, UGH... (that's not my money. too bad. peace)

Ba-BAM!!

Stellar trading day today. Waiting for entries with lvl2. Tight stop is the right stop. Pay myself first. 

2 trades, but also showing one I passed on.

DDOG is a wild mover, but making a great gap this morning to downtrend resistance. Need to let it prove itself first, develop a level to stop against, not just a bar to stop against ($STUDY). Trade was volatile and option spread was really volatile so took only the smallest position. Need to get out with limit order on this, so when it started stalling, I put a reasonable limit in and filled pretty quickly. BH

DIS big gap up, back above a daily level I watched before. Opening low pennant that I tried to short. Stopped on 2 bar reversal and ...if I've learned anything... that's a reversal pattern: bullish setup looks like it's going to fail, but instead it flushes and comes back. Failed intraday breakdown on a bullish daily setup... go long! Grabbed the long and again, when it starts stalling, yank. 

Zigs no zags! Hit and run was definitely the trade of the day today. So much sheket nafshi to lock gains and go have a day. 

After DDOG I even debated quitting then with such nice gain. Definitely "old me" DIS initial loss would have triggered me to tilt. But knowing that about myself, after DDOG huge win, all future positions are small, timing, tight.

This is one I passed on MAT. Daily breakout above long term box. It ran up then really narrow range above vwap. The option spread was pretty big, and it's already up close to 10%. How much does it have left in it? Watched lvl2 and didn't look like there was a play there for me, esp the way tight ranges like that are prone to spike. Glad I avoided.

3 losers, -5% day

Today looked like a followthrough day. There were a few pretty good looking setups. Used good waiting, lvl2 for entries. Tight stops, which absolutely saved me today. 

Even if UBER looks like it's shaping back up, it got way worse first. That's a re-enter situation, not a hold-against-hope situation.

So, 3 losers and I'm done. 5% losing day which I certainly don't like, but in light of recent days I can absorb it. Helps to know that I would have been much worse if I hadn't cut small losses. 

Mama said there'd be days like this.

good gains but fomo

First: Peace! I had another +11% day. Peace.

Another sentiment to remember is, even though there was more money... it's only clear in retrospect. I got my money. Peace. 

If I try to hold for more, it's a recipe to get burned. 

Burn of the day was NVAX, which I held through a spike to ndh, but then didn't give it subsequent room to fall apart which it did. However, I have learned over and over, despite Meir Barak and his "I trusted it to go down" schtick, for my own purpose, I prefer tight stop is the right stop. I already held the spike and set my stop above there. Then squeezed it down. Don't want to go to the worst case scenario again. Take a small loss vs a big loss and call myself lucky. I could have re-entered, but it would not have been right to hold. 

MRNA in contrast, no regrets taking what I took. Could have entered that again potentially, but was not right to try to hold.

PTON. Here we go again. I got my piece. The fact that it pulled back then continued more should not change the fact that I traded CLOCKWORK. I traded my rules. I got my money. Peace.

The impulse to try to hold for more is sheer greed and I need to resist that. Just trade my clockwork trade.

SPY... I know what that's about... that's the edge of tilt. Not a bad premise, and I traded my rules, but also I know that my picks were played out (9:45am) and I was grabbing after the fomo on NVAX. Lucky few bucks on a very small position. 

The Kabbalah of Making Money

Rabbi Manis Friedman

Hit and run / yank theory

I like how I traded today. 

Hit and run, +11% and done before 9:50. This is literally my motto:

 Fast in/out. Apply trading rules like clockwork. Have a day. Sleep at night.

I like how I waited for my entries, esp on DWAC, including watching the level 2, otherwise I would have taken the 9:32 ride down (toxic!). I like how I yanked off my gains by squeezing my stop at the stall and didn't take the ride down. Zigs no zags! 

BABA disappointed in that it didn't fall apart on the new low, but that makes me even more incredibly glad how I managed it. 

Zigs no zags! Take my piece and peace.

The stop theory for both is.. where it's supposed to run, I need to protect that surge and squeeze down along the way. DWAC was so volatile and spready that when it barely started to lose steam, I got out fast with an "easy" limit order. BABA was supposed to fall apart so when it minimally didn't, I yanked it. Read both those sentences... "where it was supposed to ____, and it didn't, I yanked it". YES.

Sometimes yanking will lead to fomo. But also... I'm up 11% 20 minutes into the day? shut up! and go enjoy life! 

My trades played out. I got my money. Peace. 

Have I not learned one million times, that when I start jabbing around I get burned? That is toxic.

Live with peace!!

Need to YANK profits off in volatility

Volatility burns me again. I used my average tolerance stops and got chopped. Net red day. I HATE red days. Need to keep those profits.

Something else I did wrong today was only trading what's in front of me. I had about 10 picks today, but only put 3 on the birdeye. In the end, I traded FB and SNAP bc they were on the birdeye, but never went back to sort through the other picks.

In high volatility, I need to grab fast on surges or give tons of room for stops (extra tight or extra loose). I know that my personality prefers to take the fast gains, even if I will miss the bigger gains. Enduring a big pullback is too hard for me. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

So today, I didn't yank SNAP on the first surge. Tried a really late short (which was my initial thought based on premkt). If I wanted short, I should have shorted the top reversal. If I wanted long, I should have yanked some on that power surge. Then I got stopped on my second calls before vwap bounce and the real move came in. I was watching SPY. SPY daily had made a pivot lower-high so all longs are to be doubted (another clue I should yank longs on surges $STUDY). SPY intraday was pulling back off resistance. That should have told me to yank my longs. ZIGS NO ZAGS.

FB, "courageous entry"--I'm such a hero LOL--off the 2 bar reversal bottom. I got half off nicely on the surge, lesson learned for now (see SNAP), but the add (bought higher) went out for a loss on the stop.

The peace trade

The peace trade is to get my piece, and peace. I left a lot on the table today, but since I feel the action has been difficult lately, and I'm working on keeping my gains, today I rode the peace train!

Really, if I look myself in the eye, I should also give myself a good hard shake. I'm up 14% today. Why am I so greedy about the stuff I missed? That's how things go to hell in a handbasket!

SMALL SIZE

TIGHT STOP IS THE RIGHT STOP

PAY MYSELF FIRST

GET MY PIECE AND PEACE

Trade like this every day and I'll be so juicy!! Take MY piece.

shorting in the lower right

Shorting new lows, in the lower right of the chart, isn't the same as long new highs.

That's what the market is giving today, for volume gapper screens. 

up down + down up day

When will I learn how to identify these days? Need to go back and $STUDY. 

Red day today on SBUX. Market strong up into resistance. Gap up scan, best tickers into resistance, so I looked for weakness. SBUX gap down below minor levels. Spread was ok when I got in, but widened after. Small position size by default, but ugh! Couldn't find anything that made sense to me after that so wrapped it.

Good news is I cut the loss. Tight stop is the right stop!! Look how much trouble I would have been in if I tried to hold!

Lehavdil... 2 tickers I watched for longs on gaps up FB and AMD... both down.

coulda shoulda

Oy! PLUG. Didn't take a small loss, then took a big loss right before the reversal. You have to take a stop somewhere, the tight stop is the right stop.

MOS got me somewhat back, but close in red today.

Thoughts about stops. Being ruthless.

One kind of stop I use is a "take profit" stop, where I'm squeezing up a trailing stop to give another smidge of room but trying to lock profits. I feel good about my take profit stop technique. Maybe this is obvious, because if I'm using this, I'm at a win. 

Another kind of stop I use is a "broken trade" stop, where I want to take off a trade that is not behaving right, trend is broken, probable case not playing out. I need to work on my broken trade stop loss technique and discipline. I need to make some firmer definition about where to place these, and definitely need to develop a feeling of relief when the stops hit and not a feeling of dread. 

A strong interfering emotion is greed. I want every penny out of a trade. Never want to eat a spread. And other fantasy-land trading.

First thought. If I'm in too big or if the spreads are too big, I am hesitant about stops, exactly when I need them most. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #1, small size. Small size makes all decisions easier because small size carries less emotion. Lesson here is that size affects my stop discipline. Some ideas around this are - trade small size. take partial stops. remember clockwork and be a responsible trader.

I need to stop my silly game of stop/limit orders. If I need to get out, then get OUT and use that market order. If I want to get cute with limits, then take targets. Stop limit orders confuse the emotions.

Something else to consider, and I've known this for a long time, if I'm drawing trendlines all over the chart... I'm probably in a bad trade. Good trades GO. Bad trades waste my time, if not also my money. Cut the bad trades and move on!

Here's what the greed trap does to me in terms of stops... I keep trying to give it one more level, and just one more level. But by then my stop technique is no longer appropriate. This is the basis for clockwork trading rule #2, tight stop is the right stop. Disobeying this gets me into more trouble than any other rule-break. This is the concept of keep losses small. Just keep the losses small, and the winners will add up.

Reassure myself: I have a good win/loss record. Go ahead and take those small losers. They will seem insignificant in the rear view. 

THE TREND. Always assess the trend I'm trading. Look left. If the trend I'm trading is broken, I need to be absolutely ruthless. 

oof

 This is the trade that is breaking the camel's back about stops. This went alllll wrong

Zig

Not many picks today. Market daily looks bull below resistance. 2 gap up picks are main targets. NVAX gapping above bottom. ZIM gapping near ath.

I ruled out ZIM bc it is 5th day of a strong run and indexes still below resistance.

Market barfed at the open (mkt tone now: skeptical of all bounces) and I played NVAX actually for a failure. Spread was not great so I didn't get best target, and since I'm only trading zigs, no zags, after 1 reasonable (but scary) bounce, I had to clamp down. No regrets there bc it launched after that. 

Since NVAX was originally a long pick, in retrospect seeing the subsequent run up how would I have played it? Where would the entry have been? Maybe only after 10am, surge, pb near vwap, then run again. Market move may have corroborated that, but I think I would have been hesitant.

Trying a new chart format where upper left is trade target daily, large right is 1 min trade, lower left is 1 min index for reference.

zigs, no zags

My best trading, best p/l reward is trading micro trends. Zigs, no zags. Scalps. Take the profits and go have a day. Redeemed the week by trading tight. There were some big trends today, but nothing I could have held for. Take my zigs.

sitting on the edge

 I am one trade away from a max loss week. Will only trade a perfect setup today. Otherwise, save my ammo. 

Hard not to notice that when I have losing days I don't journal as well/at all. I'm usually emotionally spent and not in the mood for introspection. But I'm also not growing by neglecting to analyze losses. Work on it. It's the key to success!!!

chop shop

 Despite the huge market volatility I'm just holding even lately. I know that extreme volatility is somehow harder for me. I think especially because I think I can trade more sloppy, jump in late, use tight stops. Trading smaller should help me smooth that out. 

In general, I'm trading with the right sentiment, but getting the timing wrong. Also, bc setups are all ruined I'm trying to hit the indexes. 

Maybe a day off would help. 

TSM pays again

I don't pay enough attention to TSM, but when it catches my screeners it often does really solid gains for me. Meanwhile markets are inside and looking weak.

Today earnings gap to new ath's. Caught it quick and packed it up.

wrong timing

As of 12 noon, all the top 10 gaps up (sorted by run rate) are trading below their opening price. Profit taking. 

Without the wisdom of retrospect, on the open BIDU gap looked great. I got calls on narrow spread, but then the spread widened like crazy. I stopped 1 bar too late, but otoh I tried to give it a little room (but not to day's low, which would have only been worse). 

Tried the QQQ puts, which (with retrospect) was the right trade, wrong time. I tried to give that one room and ate way too much (today exp), while being initially even more wrong and above day high, the trade was down after that. I don't think I would have tried a short at that point though as it based above day highs. Anyway, a huge loser. 

Checking back on JNPR, that fqer isn't helping any. 

Max week loss at this point, so JNPR rides, but I'm done for the week.

premkt Wednesday

Lots of gaps up today, but they're mostly off of bottoms or middles. Market is set to open up again. Shorts are giving up, but longs aren't coming in? 

I held JNPR calls overnight and hope to get my move today. Not sure I'll take another trade until that starts to shape up.

Definitely need to study the action of these that gap off of bottoms. Is oversold bounce the trade of the day?

big ouch!

Just to bite my butt after this morning's grand opining about when to give room... I gave room, I got burned, on an up is down and down is up day. Literally. See charts. (profit taking on both sides)

RIVN reversed haarrrd and stopping the back half above the first pivot hurt my pride. That's why we take small positions, people! Should I have flipped this long? NO. That's not my play. I get burned trying to bottom fish. Even though, I would have loved to catch the right side of a trend like that.

JNPR is the one that really burns. The spread...THE SPREAD... I was "too smart" to take a stop, and then suddenly it's too late (#rlly?). It didn't pop with the market buying, but it didn't fall apart. It's Tuesday. I took it home against better wisdom. BEH tomorrow this goes to 37.2 and beyond.

shorts are bailing out, but the bulls aren't buying

My eternal question: what is the cause of the up-is-down-and-down-is-up phenomenon?

New thinking: On a day that looks like bear, but down is up, that is shorts bailing out/covering. That doesn't mean that bull setups will work... that requires bulls to buy.

So, this phenomenon would happen in a bearish climate, when the bears take profits, sending weak stocks up. But it's still a bearish climate, so bullish setups are also subject to profit taking which sends strong stocks down.

Solved!

letting winners run thoughts

Recently (and perpetually), I've pondered about when to trade tight and when to give room. Yesterday I had 2 trades that were "right" on premise, and I gave them room, but when they started to finally develop in my direction I cut them short.*

I have 2 general thoughts on that:
1. It didn't behave right in the first place so I shouldn't trust it too much when it barely does the "right" thing (so take small loss/gain instead of giving room again). This is my prevailing mode.
2. Meir Barak who says, "I trust it will go up/down" based on the way the setup is supposed to play out. He sometimes eats it big on this, but sometimes when it shapes up again he'll double into it and rake it in.

How should I decide? In general, I'm taking a relativity view on it. If my long setup / calls isn't playing out especially when the market or other tickers are, it makes sense to me to play it tight. OTOH, if we're discussing it, it's already done "not what it should have" so how do I view it in comparison to others and ultimately... at what point should I continue to give it room and at what point should I tighten stops?

Obv, stops always need to be in logical places. I'm having a feeling like I want to try to give these more room even after I've already given them room. Ex: I let it go against me 20%, now it's only 5% against me and I'm tempted to cut it. Should I let it ride? 

Ultimately, I guess it all depends on the climate of the market in that moment. I hate missing big winners, but I can't afford the big losers. So I guess that's my answer.. I have to cut the losers, even at the expense of the fomo.

*Looked at another way, I had the wrong entry. I should cut tightly and potentially reenter but never give room. This is the negative of a cash account. I can't always re-enter so I need to have protection but still play the odds.

mkt fail day

Today futures way down. It is a comfort to be a daytrader and come in flat, with cash and opportunities to work with. I closed it green, but far off the high NVDA gave me.

NVDA was my best pick. I was in too big and traded chicken (spreads), +15% on oversize is ok. Peace.

Should have stopped there. But my brain got a bull bias and I looked at FB hammer around the level and grabbed long, instant fail, and jumped short too fast. It went hard against me, and on the way back down I stopped like a chicken! Held through pain and then didn't stick around for the profit? But otoh, not willing to go back to pain so closed on downtrend break. 

FB wasn't in my screeners. Setup was ok, but do I allow myself to trade this, not from my screeners?

Small position size ftw

Even when I'm feeling really confident, there's going to be losers. 

The best way to keep losses small is to 

keep the positions small in the first place.

Market dumped yesterday and is extended bear today. Needed to give shorts a chance to expel buyers first. 

AAPL was a random pick that I went to bc liquidity, but was an unnecessary trade/loss.

USO I still like the setup, but I didn't get target on the market buying and then it dumped with market continuation down.

NFLX first try I managed tight/scared bc I was red and spreads are big, but the setup was tremendous for a short if the market would continue down. Second try with market selling. I managed it more confidently, entering arguably late and giving it room for the initial bump. 

For the NFLX exit: "real life" was in play - a plumber was at the house and needed my attention so I set a bracket and walked away. It would have gone to my more aggressive target, but I couldn't count on that. With my back turned, I just wanted to get a decent profit target.

Stellar week!!