Small position size ftw

Even when I'm feeling really confident, there's going to be losers. 

The best way to keep losses small is to 

keep the positions small in the first place.

Market dumped yesterday and is extended bear today. Needed to give shorts a chance to expel buyers first. 

AAPL was a random pick that I went to bc liquidity, but was an unnecessary trade/loss.

USO I still like the setup, but I didn't get target on the market buying and then it dumped with market continuation down.

NFLX first try I managed tight/scared bc I was red and spreads are big, but the setup was tremendous for a short if the market would continue down. Second try with market selling. I managed it more confidently, entering arguably late and giving it room for the initial bump. 

For the NFLX exit: "real life" was in play - a plumber was at the house and needed my attention so I set a bracket and walked away. It would have gone to my more aggressive target, but I couldn't count on that. With my back turned, I just wanted to get a decent profit target.

Stellar week!!

Green to red to GREEN

Hit and run on CRM.

NUE gave me a harder time.

Market chop today again with downward bias. Chalk this up to luck again? I tried to hang in with the first try on NUE, but have to take stops somewhere. Would have turned a green day red if I hadn't tried again.

Tuesday mismanagement still green

Am I just making excuses for bad behavior? DVN was mega bull pattern, but market consistently dropping. I was down hard at a few points (adding... not the best idea?) but it chopped while it pushed up during market persistent drop. I'll call it lucky to get what I got.

On the other hand, the easy money would have been PINS. It chopped frighteningly when I first opened, so I traded it tight. Stopped toptick before maaasssssive drop, while market consistently dropped. This would have been a massive trade if I stuck with it.

What is the trade discipline? Why did I trade PINS so tight and give DVN room? Market strong bull in general, so I had less faith in a short than a long, even if intraday the market was melting. Only clear in retrospect, arguably. But on the other hand, I traded PINS exceedingly tight while giving DVN so much room. 

I need to study levels more and not just rely on intraday candles.

2022 opens strong

Left a lot on the table twice with TSM, but the same technique saved me well on F. Get what I get and don't get upset. I traded with the trend of the market (which took a hard flush at 9:40). +18% on account today. Really can't complain. Strong start to 2022! Peace.

Market whisperer

TLV Steimatsky:

Tiyul trade

Grabbed a quickie. Played it just right. Even though phone trade and terrible reception. Take targets. Hit and run. Take what you can.

lose, reverse, lose

2 losers today. Tried BABA short on gap down against big green bar. Failed. Tried to reverse it instead of just leaving it be, and the long didn't follow through either. I ate a lot of time for another loss. 5 min chart to show most of the day.

2 trys for +3% net

 Market gap/fade this morning. MU super juicy setup but I think it couldn't do it's full potential because of market drag.

I don't see in retrospect what I saw for the first MU entry. It reversed hard and I didn't get a chance to get out better. The second try redeemed it, even with smaller total position size. 

I'm on vacation right now, so I had small hopes for the day. This will pay for dinner :)

SPY in mid-air today and very intraday volatile

lucky -2% on a day I should have skipped

Pure overconfidence. Excellent week, told myself Friday off. But I "just peeked" and saw a setup I liked (of course...). Hacked myself down. Tilted. WTF, self?! 

And then got toxically lucky for "only" down 2% day.

I think RIVN was the tilt trade, bc I was right but missed it. Then I wanted redemption. Need to pause and return clearheaded.

Also SPY after the fact went well beyond target and could have taken me green, but I don't regret getting what I luckily got... in a trade that was f to begin with.

+12% the hard way

Big up day, but I did it the hard way, and surely with ^help. The trades I should have held, I sold, the one I should have sold I held.

INFY big juicy setup. But market was selling down and I didn't trust it.

PLUG looking for gap up failure. What I did right was enter on the pump. What I did wrong was yank before the big move. Rationale was mkt moving against my trade, and I was shorting a gap up so I wanted to book it. This is good logic and I still believe it's good management, but maybe I should have left just one for the runner. Or, you know what, get MY piece and PEACE!

ROKU eats its young. Huge down day yesterday and gap up today, but inside. When market started to drop, and ROKU tested highs and failed, I went short. Ask went to my target but no fill. I hesitated and didn't yank it (greed, or good probabilities?). Was pretty mad when I rode it back to the top for oversized loss potential. BH market kept dropping. ROKU tested the 215 several times and I was prepared for it to pop (and then hopefully drop). BH again, it flushed without popping and I was able to get out with a different kind of order. Instead of limit order (hard w roku spreads), I did if bid>4.8, sell mkt. I figured I'd get at least 4.8 and maybe more, but I filled at 4.71. Mostly relieved to get out green, and even more relieved that later I see it's the best I could have done.

one trade

Big Fed announcement expected today. Going in, I know I want to get in/get out and not mess around. I'm thinking about previous days where I've hit the opening trade and then squandered gains, so thinking I might just take the first nice gain and walk.

Several picks, but also I'm feeling scared. First trade went in my favor. Market feels funky and I decided to not squander it at all today with a second trade. 9:35, done. After I hit ROKU, I looked at LLY, saw a bottom tail, but I passed. Market continues down and LLY spread too wide. Keep my nice up day and get on with other things.

+6% but coulda shoulda

 Opening NVDA trade had some size and a good gain. Should have quit. XPEV, gave back half those gains.

SSE shows the chop better. How can I avoid these? I think I would either take puts at the top of the range, or on the pop/drop, instead of trying to get the breakdown. BUT... why was this a choppy setup? It gapped into no man's land on a strong down market day. It "should have" flushed, so if it doesn't, that implies there is some strength there. Expanding range, price discovery. AVOID.

No great picks. +8%

No great picks today, need to go small if at all then hit and run.

BA continuation gap down. Market selling off. PL target roughly around technical price target. Banked it.

MU hoped for continue above ugly pennant. Nice 1min hammer around gap fill... failed, as did market bounce attempt.

LCID looking for bounce attempt. I like my entry off the bottom attempt. When it couldn't push through day high/premkt level, I yanked half. Other half stopped by a few pennies. Maybe I would have gotten a target on the push through (but by 1-2 cents maybe not), but still would have gotten burned on the pop&drop.

Friday f* -2%

Jumped into LUV too early. Had to sweat first and then yanked on fear.

PTON waited too long, gave too much room, trade went net green to red.

Holding one single lotto put on PTON to maybe green my day.

What I did well: 

Passed (properly) on ORCL, but that doesn't pay the bills.

Didn't open a new trade / new exposure while LUV was in the dumps.

(pton update)

Quick 9%

CVS was the best setup of the day. I'm glad I took it fast bc it failed as quickly as it ran up.

GME and IONQ setups weren't as great. Maybe more wishful thinking. I took each at half size, but lost on both.

LCID, OMG

 Fill details later

PLUG, ill advised add

Not a lot of good looking setups at the open today. I had my eye on PLUG, but it really flushed in the open. I stayed clear of that, but when it stabilized near my level I got it for a move back up. Then I got greedy.

Maybe I should look at a day where there's not a lot of setups and think: hey... today's not a day to push... there's not a lot setting up.

Instead, I tried to squeeze money out of nothing. 

Greed: I had a good setup. I got my p/l target--though I only took off 1/3 (greed) and moved up my stop. But instead of riding it out, I tried to get really cute and reload on the pullback (greed). When it stopped, the loss overwhelmed my initial gain for a net red trade. As regrettable as that is, I don't regret taking the stop, because it got worse and worse from there.

Was this trade "clockwork"? I'm going to say B-. I did wait for an entry. I got the pl target but should have taken more off at the target. I shouldn't have added. I did well to take my stop. Some days these tactics pay off, but today was not a day to try to push.

stellar day!

Stellar day today, but it started off with a scare. I started into TSLA puts too early (overeager!!), but added really well at the top and got both parts off green. Big lesson is about the front half, which I was lucky to get off green. Should have taken the stop! But on the other hand, if I'm going to try to "be early", it's good to start small so I have time/cushion to be wrong for a while. Thank G-d for Monday, bc on a Thurs/Fri I wouldn't have gotten so lucky with the exits.

After TSLA, I checked back with XPEV which was my #2 pick for today (after RRC, which I didn't trade). I saw a signal that I really like on the 1 min, a hammer off the bottom and big green bar coming in with volume. I loaded in, and got a huge ride!! Why did I trade it so scared on the way up that strong-af surge? The market was trading strong down at the same time. I shaved off bits to keep myself comfortable. Should I allow myself to be more uncomfortable? 

LEARN: How can I let a trade like TSLA (front half) go against me and not be scared, but when XPEV does similar move, that I did anticipate ("makes sense"), I'm a coward? XPEV continues to be insanely strong. Same happened w CLF on Friday. I left a lot on the table. Even though... nice trade/both. My conclusion is that I traded TSLA wrong by holding that front half so long against me. But I traded XPEV, CLF(friday) just fine. I got 1/3 of my position off above +90%. I can't complain!!

I tried AUPH calls for continued strength. I like my entry, but the option didn't move when the stock did. The trendline broke, and the ask went up, but the bids didn't go up. That's showing me lack of demand. I moved up my stop and managed to get out green. After that, it continued flat/down and I don't mind at all not sitting in it.

comeback

CLF was my #1 pick this morning. I got over eager and ate the first trade hard. Of course now it looks like I should have just held on for the reversal, but I must be strict about my stops so a slap doesn't turn into a wallop. -52% hurt! But I tried again when I saw it bounced. I went in to second try initially smaller for caution, but added (to oversize) on confirmation. It was a huge relief to get the first half off for pl tgt, but that first gain still left me with a red account and a slightly uncomfortably big position. Yanked some more off at increments and then yanked at a final stop. 

...and then watched it run away train through several resistance levels even as the market was downtrend. I got my piece, back into green, and must be at peace with that. Can't hold beyond my rules because that's a recipe for disaster. 

Had a little money left and tried for AXP blue sky breakout. Contrary to CLF, opening weakness didn't followthrough. It barely survived my stop before giving pltgt by the skin of the teeth, then dropped back out and I ate the spread. 

Squandering gains

Terrific opening trade on BABA. 9:32, gains looking really good. 

And then AFRM took off and I chased -- not my setup! I've had some great trades on AFRM, but I'm not sure on net if I've made more than I've lost on all the AFRM trades. It's not even really setting up for me, I'm just stabbing because it's moving. That's not clockwork.  I need to lay off AFRM for a while. Only trade my best setups. 

My trades played out by 9:32? So what? That's not a reason to keep stabbing around...a lesson I learned again today by giving back gains. On the chart, it looks like I sold higher, but it was a loss bc I ate the spread. 

Hit and run!

I don't like how I've been sticking around and overtrading lately. Today's goal, hit and run. Wait for my very best setup, pile in, give it zero room.

Today I picked Z. Waited for the volatility to settle out and got a good entry for a downdraft. BH. Got really nice pl 20% target. Then market turned back up strong so I tightened down and go the rest off decent gains and most of all, without much sweat.

Now...is this the hardest part of the day?... walk away! If it continues down without me, that's not my trade, that's not my money. I got my piece. PEACE!

Accepting losses

 Accepting losses is one of my biggest struggles as a trader. I'm sure I'm not alone. Especially green-to-red lossses. Trading smaller is a good remedy, but then I also need to STOP trading. 3 losses in the same day is a sign that I'm not keyed in, or they climate is not right for my system. No reason to chase. Just take the rest of the day off!

Has it been a while?

Back to the habit of trade review blogging.

After a prolonged and wonderful uptrend, we're now pulling back. Daily stochastics finally ran all the way oversold, first time in weeks/months. IBD is listing the market in correction. SPY pb has been 5%. What comes next? We'll only know when it happens!

Today was Columbus/Indigenous People day. Pay attention for cash accounts. It's a market day, but not a clearing day. Needed to keep powder dry (Friday), to have money to trade with today.

Traded OXY calls, green. PDD calls, green. NVDA puts, flat. AFRM calls, green. All trades small and extremely cautious. This market has been a B*ch and I "get what I get and don't get upset." Lately it's 1/4-1/3 off for 10%. Middle half/third off for 20%. Then trail stop on last bit....and the last bit seldom does anything dramatic. 

Reversals are everywhere. Need to trade small. Scrape out those gains. Tight stop is the right stop. 

Small frustrating days

It has been several days since I posted. I haven't done much but churn my account. Up and down 1-2%. 

It's frustrating! And I've taken to trading even smaller because it feels like nothing's working. 

Zigs, no zags

It has been a supremely frustrating week. I am red for the week, despite a great up day today. 

Mantra today was: zigs, no zags. Picky picks. I traded today's expiration, waited for entries and gave zero tolerance. Took 10, 15, 20% targets. And probably also got lucky!

Gotta go. Shabbat shalom

head fake

 Another fing hard day in the market. Inside yesterday markets.

Trade of the day was headfake for a short then riiiiiiipppp!

I lost on all 3. Red day for me.