return to clockwork

I have strayed. I have looked left and right and seen other traders seemingly making more money. I ignored clockwork trading rules this week to try to make more. I had a red week.

Today I closed the overnight hold of LEN for a little more gains. Lost huge on MRVL. Won big on U. Net red day.

I think partly I've let myself get obsessed with https://www.instagram.com/raketrades/ who trades a similar style to me but somehow manages to get outrageous gains. I keep thinking I'm going to do that too... not all the time, just on the real great setups. (Maybe I need to go further otm to get the returns he gets.) MOST OF ALL, I need to stick to MY style. The style that suits me and makes me money. 

This week contrasted with last week (stellar gains), should make it very obvious that I should stay in my lane.

So next week, back to "clockwork trading". Why do I ever stray? That's how I've made the money that I have, why do I try anything else? This refers to trading like clockwork. Systematic picks. Systematic entries. Systematic trade management. This is my thing. I'm going to make my money my way, in my time. 

-small position size to reduce emotional decision making

-tight stop is the right stop

-pay myself first (take profits along the way)

-zigs no zags. I need to trade the one power surge of the move and then go enjoy the rest of my day.

I need to remind myself of this more. 

I won't get rich quickly, but I might get rich slowly.

will I never learn?

Psychologically toxic day for me today.

Main trade was LEN. Breakout to ath on earnings. I waited for the sellers to clear (should there have been sellers?) then bought, and added out of the consolidation. Should the open have been so cumbersome on new ath? after a daily pullback and consolidation (cup/handle type situation)? The volume was there. 

So whatever. I got in, took far less than half off for stellar gains, but not before enduring a pullback to my ~breakeven/vwap. Should that have happened? Why wasn't I asking myself, "is this what an incredibly strong breakout looks like?" [NO!] That should have told me to capture much more gains there when I did.

Then I f'ing sat in it all day long. Going pretty deep red, then it couldn't cross 120 in the afternoon... is that the behavior of an incredibly strong breakout? [NO!]

And then, for the... why? ... I took a tiny position home overnight. For tomorrow's expiration... Why? It's just AT the money and it it currently at the close tonight about 1% in the red (flat) so tomorrow barring a big move into the money, these go to zero. 

One of the most frustrating parts is that the market defied all laws of gravity. The market is sooo extended, but look at SPY nonstop uptrend all day. While this fker just grinded. 

Good luck tomorrow to save my week which is currently red.

not a day to press

 Today was not a day to press. Market is extended. Indexes didn't trend. I tried to press. Red day.

The second try in CRWD was punishment I deserved. When I stopped the first half, I briefly thought to flip short (failed breakout). But instead of short, or just passing, I did this asinine thing. Waste of money.

surprise great day

 This morning while prepping, I realized I needed to help my parents and wouldn't really be able to trade the open.

I did a literal hit and run on COIN, in 5 min made a decent gain on COIN and then tore myself away. 

By the time I got back home it was after 2:30. Picked through the rvol screener and tried NVDA (which worked later) and TSLA (which didn't give either direction particularly).

QQQ caught my eye as making new high and I was able to catch SPY making ndh and move above yesterday high for continuation. Took 1dte, esp since it was already 2:45. Raked it in!

Small quick trading day to close a stellar week

 Learned this morning and came in 9:40. Used the TradingView rvol screener in real time (5min) to see what was moving. Caught a few quick moves. Left a lot on the table, but also had close to zero stress. Quit with cash still cold. Shabbat shalom!

siiiiick!!

Beautiful 2 days trading on vacation! B"H! In addition to a really nice time away (despite smoke from fires in Canada).

I'm up 42% on the week. I'm way too hyped up to journal now. This will have to suffice...

hit and run!!

Vacation trading. Hit and run. I executed, raked it in, and I'm off to have a great day with A.

basic green day

Opening pick was AMAT, gap down on volume, breaking levels.

When AMAT failed to drop out, I went long AMD for relative strength, and it was a great trade. If anything I didn't hold it well enough, but at the same time as AMD was getting started, SPY and QQQ were below yesterday's low. In that condition I should not be aggressively long. I scaled down at every stall, including as it got to Thurs/Fri highs. I wonder if I was too tight with some stops, if I could have stayed in with more size a little longer. 

It was not a "full bull" day, so I don't regret locking profits.

What I do regret is the trade I took in MBLY. I was thinking of the pattern where I got so burned a few days ago where a stock gapped down below a strong uptrend, found support on nearby tangle of ma's and ran up. I saw MBLY hammer and start to surge, and I lept in. The option was too thin, too spready, and it was monthly(next week) expiration. NO good all around. And then it didn't fill me out, didn't follow through and I sweated it for an hour before finally getting ~breakeven on a market order (limit wouldn't fill). And the last bit for a gain. It was a waste of mental capital.

Hacked up on a day I should have passed

 No surprise that when I trade on a day with zero great setups that I get hacked up (at best!). I'm lucky I didn't get totally smacked down. 

Only "obvious" setup was PANW, gapping up on news Friday of being added to SP500. It didn't move me at the open and I passed (beneficially, bc it trded way down)

AMD and NVDA both had my eye for breakdowns. AMD barely/questionably triggered. I like how I waited for an entry, though maybe I should have waited for vwap break. When it "should have" fallen apart and didn't, I scaled out of 25% for the tiniest gain. Then it did indeed go against me hard. Got out for not-bad % loss, but was big $ loss on big-ish position. 

Then I reversed AMD long, and I can only say I got lucky to get out green on the long, bc I went to a pretty big drawdown in the interim. 

Story ends where it started, I would have been better off just completely passing on the trade this morning.  No great setups, no trading. Why isn't that extremely obvious. 

AMD short setup: Volume gap below trendline, looking for failure into gap.

Entry: I thought it was a failure off the second high of day. I think this was a decent entry, though it failed.

Management: Yank partial on the first stall. Gave the rest too much room and bad exit on xlarge position. 

AMD long setup: Failure to fail

Entry: Overeager entry after my short stopped. 

Management: Trim on first stall .Gave it too much room and took a loss on next partial. Was lucky to get the next surge so took some off on the stall again, but still held more which I tightened up on when I had green.

Psychology: medium.

I could have saved myself a lot of grief and prevented losses by sitting out today. Given that I did trade, I held to my stops and was aware of shifting momentum. 

But I shouldn't expect my techniques to work on nms, and therefore, it is futile for me to trade nms.

Stops matter

CRWD stops matter.

QQQ should have tried again.

COIN saved my day, but again, stops matter.

premkt questions

 Here's what I should have asked myself in the premkt this morning... 

What are the chances we need to rest?

What are the chances we have another big bull day?

What are the market leaders doing premkt?

RAKED it in!

Last night NVDA announced some sort of stellar earnings with all the right buzzwords. Stock opened up about 30% -- on a megacap! Unbelievable. 

This morning the QQQ was set to gap up 2.3% and lots of things were absolutely raging premkt. 

I knew to stay away from NVDA and wanted to avoid the other semis too. Though TSM was on my watchlist for a new breakout of a huge pattern, and I didn't play it well for a loser on small size.

My A+ pick was ADBE, which I've been watching in a base. I f*king KILLED IT!!! in 2 trades. B"H

And I am done for the long weekend. Shavuot Friday and Memorial Day Monday. It's going to take me at least that long to cool my jets from this amazing trade. Today I'm +94% on the capital I traded. 🤯

What an amazing boost to my account!

textbook

Great green day today. I made back about 3/4 of what I lost yesterday, with smaller exposure. 

I had 2 lovely picks this morning and allocated myself only enough money to trade those 2. 

(yesterday) overtrading a no trend day

 The market stayed in a tight range all morning 

While I tried to trade trend. I should not have expected followthrough, and should have been quicker to take profits. I took 3 full losses as AI and COIN didn't hold up, and FSLR didn't hold down. That's max loss day. 

I really didn't read the premarket right. In retrospect, it was obvious not a bull open. 

Also, not good for me to be in 3 positions at the same time. I don't manage well. Stick to 1-2.

new thinking on taking profits

 I'm moving away from the 20% p/l target. And I'm moving away from taking off half at the first target. 

My trouble has persistently been that big losing days take a bite out of my progress.

New thinking: I need to keep my same loss controls, and build confidence to ride gains longer. I simply need more gains!

Today's approach was smaller size, and go a little farther otm for easier holds, smaller loss potential, bigger gains for successful moves. Today there was a power move on the open that helped me a lot. So I will continue to monitor over time how this is going.

Stellar day!

$44 (thursday)

 Today I made $44 for my trouble. Better than red, but not the best hourly rate! I would have done better leaving after the open. 

I would have done better setting orders and walking away--if only because I wouldn't have taken "one more trade" and "one more trade."

Charts maybe later, but it's nothing to write home about. Try/stop/try/target/stop/etc. 

gorgeous trend day

 The market opened up and I jumped the gun. Initial losses. When the market turned, it TURNED. We had a practically non stop trend from 10-2:00. 

I was able to really ride my trades and take multiple partials with terrific gains, even including taking ~50% losses in APP. I had most of my winning partials above +200%

I took home very tiny long positions in MA and ISRG, hoping for followthough. Sized for zero, but I hope for $$

APP. Setup: daily continuation gap above few day consolidation.
Entry: resume up after pb
Management: didn't reach target. Ran all the way back down. Tried to hold but it didn't budge enough. Was too spready, but eventually I had to dump it when it was oblivious to todays monster rally.

QQQ. Setup: continuation run. Picked index with relative strength at the time, though IWM outperformed.
Entry: vwap bounce. dumped some. readded on recovery. 
Management: Had to trim half when it went against me. In retrospect I should have trimmed more/all, much earlier. But would I have reentered if I didn't have a partial on? Anyway, I couldn't hold full size for what was happening. Held without a stop through news (!). Skimmed off at targets.

MA. Setup: continuation out of consolidation.
Entry: ndh. 3rd otm calls. 
Management: Holding for the breakout move. One Target along the way, then shaved off in the eod consolidation. Took home 25% size.

ISRG Anticipating breakout, I bought 15% size starter into the close, for hopeful market continuation tomorrow and further upside here.

prep matters!

 Yesterday I had 3 losing trades. While it was a choppy day, I also was aware that I came in after a poor night of sleep, and hectic market prep. I think the hectic market prep affects me more. 

Yesterday's prep was not systematic. I had a lot of picks and hadn't honed it down or done the detail work. That's just sloppy. I guess I deserved those losses.

I can't just trade anything at any time. Maybe most of the days I feel like it's easy, but I need to remember that's because of my physical and mental prep!

total chop city!

 Market has been very hard to trade. Maybe I could figure out how to just stay out of these messy things.

Trading on probation

 I've been trading on probation since last week's tilt. I'm doing great. This is what kills me. I'm a good trader. I make good consistent money!... except when I tilt. Tilt is my absolute undoing. I need more ways to guard myself against tilt. I need EVERY way to guard against tilt.

Something I've been pondering is, if my account goes into red, I can only have one more trade that day.
If my first trade is red, one more trade. 
If I go green to red, one more trade.

Based on the book The Mental Game of Trading, I should be aware of emotional signals that precede tilting and then stop myself. I'm aware of lots of signals that I'm not trading my best. I hope the above rule about going red will help stop me. 

For sure I don't like closing shop with a negative balance on the day. But I must! be able to close on a small red and never let it go tilt.

I want to retire A* on my trading. I want us to live anywhere, travel and trade from anywhere. Tilt is the single biggest thing that is holding me back from my dreams.

I like the feeling of being a successful trader. I want the benefits of the income! I can't keep kneecapping myself. Why am I self-sabotaging?!

tilt day

Gave up my whole win streak. 

small for success

I have been trading like a superstar even in a choppy market. It's the smaller size! Will stick with this technique for a while. Each night, move half my profits out for good. 

Downside - I haven't been keeping up with annotating charts or other record keeping. This is lazy, and something I'm inclined to do when I'm in a losing streak. What could it mean that I'm ignoring journaling while winning? Partly, I feel like I don't want to brag. But otoh, I do want to keep my socials +/- up to date.

Maybe I haven't been compelled to update bc I'm not all that emotional about it (thrilled/devastated). Again... trading small / staying rational.

week in review - cooling jets (written Thursday 5/4)

 I traded a smaller account this week to slow myself down after some serious misbehavior in trading and undisciplined losses in previous week/s.

It worked. 4 green days. Each night I moved half my gains out. So I locked some, but still kept some. I like this technique. I want to build my reserve account back up using this method. When I get to the round number I want in the reserve account, I will concentrate on exclusively building the trading account. 

Even with moving out partial gains (vs trading with the full increased account), I'm up 66% this week. It would be great to trade like this all the time. How can I bottle this easy confidence?

update on cooling my jets

I've been trading like a superstar this week. I hate to admit, but maybe this reduced size is my sweet spot? Definitely, it's always less emotional to trade with smaller size. In addition I've been moving half my daily profits out. So my trading account still grows, but I don't get the big ego or the overtrading.

Most of all, I think the big improvement is that I've been closing shop after the opening session. 

It's a good reminder that once my picks play out, I'm done.

Today is fed day, so today I'm really done. No hacking through a quiet midday. And definitely not going to touch the fed volatility... but I sure will come back to watch the drama!

cool my jets

 Did I get too overconfident again? Thurs/Fri I lost a lot on COIN. Thursday it wasn't even my setup. Friday when it did break down, I didn't capitalize well and also took a net loss. 

Next week, reduced size. Have to dig out with a spoon.

Scalps

Grab and get the heck out is trade of the day. 

Love my hit and run this morning. I'm starting to feel like "I'm back!" in my trading. Pick my very best setups. Minimal risk exposure, rake it in, go have a nice day. 

At this point, I need to beware of the confident feeling I'm having. I know about myself that when I feel really confident, I'm open to getting humbled. I need to stick to my very best setups. Hit, grab my gains, and run. 

Today, the pltgt was very key in BA gains. I know that BA can run hard but also reverse hard. Always lock gains there. 

RUN also had a lot of volatility and about 10%+ spread. Need to take targets there, so I skimmed off a fraction for an easier target, then put the rest of the first half out for a slightly increased target. Back half out on first sign of reversal.

Zigs no zags!

wide spreads but got my piece

No regrets with either of these trades. Both had incredibly wide spreads and I did leave a lot on the table, but I also didn't ride the zags. My goal is "zigs no zags". Just trade the open and then go have a day. That's my best trading - hit and run. Lately I've been sucked into trading all day, whittling down/giving back morning gains and building stress. I don't want to trade like that. I'm allocating myself less money lately so I don't mess around.  

Today there were 10am econ announcements so I knew I wanted to be out before then. 

slow and steady

 Today's goals were to size small and only take opening setups. I made most of the money in AMD (shown) and a little in a tiny SPY scalp (not shown). 

Felt like a very good day, probably because of the small size. Everything just stayed sane. Also the rest of my day felt great. I only traded the morning and the rest of the day was a pleasure. Why do I keep myself in front of the screen, only to take nicks out of my opening gains. Just rake it in and leave!!

Maybe I trade this small for a while and stay sane for a while. There's a lot going on this week in terms of economic announcements and earnings, yet the market remains in an infuriating range. 

vestigial psych problems

 It's been a while since I had a clusterF of a trade like GM where I was in too big for the spread involved and I was afraid to take the stop. Hopefully this will keep me properly smacked in the face for a while. The stop level was clear. Better to take a "bad" loss than this utter waste of money. If it goes back in my direction, I can always re-enter. Or move on to something that's acting better.

Similar problem in LVS, but I was somewhat better sized for the drawdown. Poor R:R on that one, if I were to complain. 

Other than that, quite a very good day with a basic gainer on ON and a nice day-maker on TSLA.

Post holidays

 I'm back. It's been 2 weeks of wonderful hectic with Pesach and the kids around. Today, back to business. 

It was a slim green day today. Was initially up but didn't walk away. Went red, then struggled back to green. I want to get back in the habit of hit and run. If I'm done at 9:45. Great! It's beautiful outside and there are a million other things I'd love to be doing instead of sweating the market all day.

Today I identified an inside market day = don't chase, don't expect followthrough. Add to that, should be a hit/run/and run away! kind of day.

Focus: be done before 10:15.