overconfident again?

 I had an A-MA-ZING trading day today. Made back yesterday's loss and much more. Thrilled from this huge account up day. Maybe I should make a withdrawal from my account, even though I'm not yet to the balance where I thought I might start doing that.

I've been thinking a lot about my trades yesterday. Today's setups were +/- the same. The market was/is inside. Yesterday it didn't work. Today it did. That's not the root of my pondering, though. It's how I psychologically handle losses....

I know I am prone to tilting and I have build a lot of hard and soft rules around myself to try to staunch that, ex: trading in a cash account, trading just the open

I "simply" had 3 losing trades in a row (rule to stop there), but it added up to a surprising loss, and that threw me. Am I always that exposed? Am I usually lucky (skilled?) that it doesn't burn me like that every day? Can I really handle the size I trade with? Why didn't I use tighter stops...

On the other hand, in one really good day/today, I made it back and much more. 

So, is yesterday just what I should consider a "normal max loss" day? I don't think I've had a normal max loss day for a while. Usually a max loss day is because I'm trading foolishly. New trading pod is helping me stay on my toes.

I think I just need to keep trading small for a while. Stay sane. Trade like clockwork!

The inevitable red day

"Still inside. be skeptical" is what I should have told myself premkt. I had 3 losing trades this morning and that's a wrap. I keep looking at it and I think the picks are good setups for me. I think I traded them ok (mostly). They just didn't work. Really really didn't work. And I gave too much room for stops, too much wishful thinking given market condition. 

Still pondering my technique. Maybe when under yellow light "still inside. be skeptical" conditions, I should go for 10-15% pl tgt instead of 15-20%. Definitely I should wait for best entries instead of aggressive entries. Probably use tighter stop tolerances instead of letting these go to "worst scenario". Consider smaller size! 

Yesterday afternoon I was thinking... "This is how I feel when I've become overconfident. I usually have a big losing day when I feel like this." And so it goes....

Despite inside market open, I went into my normal setups and (of course...) nothing worked. By 10:10, 3 losing trades and I'm done. UGH!!

Tomorrow is another day. At least I'm not overconfident anymore? 🤷

restraint

I had a great first trade this morning on TSN. Then I had a little bit of a trade on BILI, but much smaller and very low tolerance for it to go against me (also bc I got in a bit late). I feel excellent about both trades. 

By 9:40 I was done with those. Looked at my other picks and didn't like anything much. Passed on another BILI trade. Maybe(?) if I had entered BILI one bar earlier, would I have held for the vwap test/s and the next push down? Really not sure I would have played that right, even though obv in retrospect.

I was still "hyped up" at that point and have a LOT of capital left to trade with, but decided I should take a breather before new risk. Restraint!

I love how I'm trading lately. I love how my account looks lately. I feel very synced and at peace about the market. How do I bottle this feeling?!

I've found a little trading pod that I like. I'm so happy about that! Some different trading styles, but interesting and compatible for discussions.

hot market is back

Yesterday fed announcement fueled an important technical move.

Today premarket felt really hot, like the old days in 2021.

Lots of good looking gap up picks. All the gaps down were either inverse etfs or not meaningful.

Of my 7 premarket watch list I think I picked the 2 worst to trade. Everything else moved when these guys stuttered. Took a long time to get "eh" gains. The second daily high was sold strongly and I got stuck while these based out. Didn't help that I chased the first bit of GOOGL. 

nice green day

Nice green day today.  Market inside. Fed day this afternoon. Opening market action was chop shop!

BIDU gap above LT level. Looked so good, but option very spready. When it got stuck below 147.8 I yanked the rest. When it pop/dropped I was glad, though next level below did hold. and then it ran pretty straight to my ~152 target. On one hand, a little FOMO bc I could have really had a big winner (realistically, I wouldn't have really held to that top). Otoh, that cuts both ways. 

Maybe I should examine how/whether to trade spready options. Currently it's to trade small and use limit orders. Maybe some day if my account is MUCH bigger, and I could trade a micro size, then I could hold a last partial on a lotto basis and capture some of those. For now, I need to book gains like Clockwork!

AMD caught my eye as it was basing above vwap. Market action at the time was iffy. Gave one try and stopped it tight. Next try I had a little more confidence to give it room, but it was really hard work. Eventually I took 10% to relax a little. (Contrast strategically with BIDU when I took some off in hard work zone.) Another shave along the way and then set a bracket to close my eyes for a few minutes. Came back to tighten the stop. 

lucky with a bracket

Market is inside open/morning. Don't expect followthrough. And yet... I chased MU and failed on SPOT in the opening minutes.

Pick of the day was UPS for a level breakout. It was on my gap scanner but wasn't clearing the level ~184. Set an alert. Now buckle in for a saga. First entry was a starter. Waited for the level break. Volume/action looked good but it was pretty extended. After a pb, I added. Meanwhile SPY was chopping in a narrow range and moreso down while UPS pushed. UPS had a mind of its own, though and didn't trend with the market in sync today generally.

Picture: I'm in the hole from MU and SPOT. I'm full+ sized in UPS. I decide I want 20% pltgt on the add, not on the starter, but now the spread is 10%+ on the option so I need limit orders. I hate using stop/market when the spread is so big. Really I shouldn't trade this spready (how often do I say this?). Got the pltgt but only took off 1/4th of the position (bc, why? wanting to make back the opening losses). 

When it started rolling over off the top, I tried to get another limit order for the 40% and it didn't fill. So now I'm up a creek. Didn't want to sell "badly" when the stock isn't really falling apart. I kept giving it another level and another level until the trade went red again. Now I'm sweating it. It held a level just above the vwap for a little bit, then it held a level straddling the vwap. This for more than an hour and I'm wasting my day and psychological capital on this f'er.

I set a stop, 2 limits and walked away for over an hour. I think that's the only choice I had to manage the trade at that point. Got very lucky that finally moved back up. The limit on the option filled while I was out (another 1/4th). In the next several minutes it got very near my price target and failed so I yanked off another 1/4th and tightened my stop. 

Do I regret this trade? Even though in the end I did much better exiting midday than I would have at the point I "should have" stopped much earlier, it was NOT worth the stress. I should have taken that early stop, taken the ~flat day and closed my screens. I don't like sweating a trade all day. That's why I'm a scalper. I like to have my day!

big win, small losses

BABA big win off the open. AMD small loss. Market became very choppy and didn't want to compromise gains so subsequent trades were extremely small. Maybe what I should have done instead was wait for more clarity. Or just shut down and go enjoy my day. Clear in retrospect. In the moment, small size was the move.

SOFI I got sucked into some buzz and traded $6 stock. Meanwhile I passed on CVNA for being too cheap. Should have passed on both. Need to make sure I don't get sucked into buzz. Just stick with my best setups.

GDS was on my gap down screener. Didn't work in the morning bump/churn.

In general, I love how I kept my losers small today, and how I sized down after a big win to not give it back.

illegal Friday trading

 Here's exactly why I swore off trading on Fridays: Today I sat down for "one little trade" 🚩 and while I did get one little green trade, I then did my usual flotz and went in for more. No charts today, but AXP for nice opening gain (big spread, cut it WAYYY too short). AMD both ways to dig a pretty serious hole and back out of it. Closed the day down a smidge after a miraculous recovery, and it's 2:30 and I haven't started cooking. UGH!! Wasted my day and mental capital for no gains. 

hard work!

I was out this morning for the open, but I did market prep before I left. XOM pick of the day, got a great (but super small) entry on my phone. Played it super tight so I missed a lot, but it did make my day. Only regret that I wasn't home to trade it maximally from my desk.

LI was another premkt pick that was making a nice base when I got back to my desk. Ndh at lunchtime didn't launch, Scaled down with a partial stop and ate a big spread. Sat in it in pain for a while until it came back but was extremely hard work. I finally shaved off partials for ~+10% and a net 0% for the trade. 

TSLA had earnings last night so is on watch for intraday setups. Nice setup for a short, but only took 25% off at pltgt. The rest went to ~b/e stop for net +4% on the trade. 

This week has been a really great gainer, even with Tuesday's annoying losses. 

No trade Friday tomorrow.

early but it worked

MSFT earnings last night putting a big pull down on the market. Indexes back below key levels of the past 2 days. Strong bear bias this morning.

GOOGL gapping down strongly on MSFT cloud outlook. Below 2 day level and crossing back down some mas. I got in tooooo early! on the first down bar (come on! I can't wait even 60 seconds for the most minimal range to develop?). Added, also too soon, and was willing to give it the mas as a stop. When it rolled back down, I added one last time. I should probably call this a toxically lucky trade, esp because it really made my day. OTOH, the loss wouldn't have been out of range and the market was weak so shorts can have a little room. 

BA gap down, red against green, market dumping and this "should have" fallen apart. But I should know that BA shakes out everyone before turning for the move. The last line in the sand would be above yesterday bar, which would have been bull engulfing. Market weakness saved me. With the add, the net on this trade was +4%. ugh. It looks like the opening trade here was a long, and yes. But that's not my setup. I'm not great at picking bottoms. My better trade would have been to wait for the short to set up much better. Realistically, if I had waited until 9:40, I'm not sure I would have taken a short at all off that huge run up against a short setup. Again, only the market weakness saved the day.

Checking in later...BA back to day highs. 

I got lucky to close that short flat.

trading my pl vs trading the chart

PREMARKET THOUGHTS

I wonder if I've become too focused on my p&l, at the expense of good chart reading. 

I always want to take the pltgt, that's my bread and butter and it's part of my psychological strategy (as long as I heed it!!)

What I'm thinking about is maybe I've been setting orders for the back half based on option price and not stock price. Too scared of giving back that I miss a continued trend. Should I squeeze stops a little less tight? Should I take the back half off in 2 chunks instead of 1?

Am I losing confidence because of an inside day yesterday that I traded too aggressively and took a loss?

It is good to shed some of the confidence I build over a couple of stellar days. Stay humble!

AFTER MY TRADES 

This morning (ignoring how far I rode in the wrong direction) on GOOGL and BA I tried to use stock price levels more than p/l levels. Technique is to trail stop, but wait for the price triggers. Today it worked great. Not sure it's made for every market. 

got chopped on the inside day

The FIRST rule of inside days: don't expect followthrough. 

How many years have I been trading?

This morning on the open there was a wild market glitch. Lots of strange halts and weird action. Fortunately I didn't get caught in that. 

Then I took 1 "normal" loss and 1 C-game loss (0dte) and I'm calling it quits. Coulda' shoulda on the last one, which...  wtf, self!?!  0dte is poison. Also poison: not taking the pltgt bc I want so much more. 

Repeat: the pltgt is my bread and butter. I need to take that target every single time. Either I take the target with a limit order, or run a trailing stop behind it for more. But there should never be a time when I hit +20% and don't take it off for at least +15%. +20 should never go red.

And helloooooo....! I only turn to 0dte in the first place when I'm desperate 🚩. 

If I'm even looking at 0dte, I should shut down.

Ba BAM !!!

Very nice morning! 9:44 my last trade closed and I'm done. Take my money and go have a great day!

Started with SHOP calls, too early. Moved to AMD and got all my levels. Also reentered SHOP and it was a little tough but got pltgt then a squeezed stop. 

Market continues to surge, QQQ breaking 285 long term level. Some tough downtrend lines above.

As I write, market continues up so strongly without me. Regrets? Not really. I made terrific money today, with very little exposure. Everything is extended now, so no great entries and if I was still long I'd be sweating my gains. I do not regret taking MY piece.

Maybe some day, in the evolution of my trading, I will be more willing to give a runner a lot of room to go moon or bust. Right now that doesn't sit well with me. I'm hit and run!

Here's a great thought experiment about runners. I used the same trading techniques today on both SHOP and AMD (pltgt, then T1 and squeezing stop to trail). I missed a little more on SHOP but also spared myself the flush. On the other hand, I missed continuation on AMD. How could I know? 

My rules are based on my trading personality knowing that I'm ok with good gains and missing some upside, vs being exposed to one of those dumps. I'm zigs, no zags. When I give room, I feel like (no good data) I'm more likely to eat it than moon it. Zero complaints about the money I raked in today in 15 market minutes.

Peace!

real quick Friday

Hit and run, some real quick trades this morning. I have a lot of ammo left, but I don't want to get consumed. I made nice money in about 15 market minutes and I'm going to go have a day. Esp Friday I don't want to get absorbed.

BABA st level. Got in too early, but stop wasn't breeched and I added small to smidge oversize. Took "10%" target (turned out to be 8%), then set the rest for a 20% target (turned out to be 18%, looks like I thought I entered $1 but was actually $1.01) on the original. Happened fast and somehow exited all. Don't want to try to meddle back into it. Take my terrific gains and go have a day.

META, trying to preempt the st level break using strength of a 1 min bottom. Bit of a late entry and chickened out in opening volatility. At least got b/e.

Don't want to give the market any more of my mental energy, but as I watch BABA losing it I see I probably wouldn't have gotten more. META continuing and breaking st daily level, but would have been a tough hold for 0dte. No regrets to take MY money and gtho.

Shabbat shalom!

Before I leave my desk, interesting how similar daily setup is trading differently. BABA already broke out and was a choppy trade. META broke intraday, but the strength is there.

continuation down day

Yesterday was a big down day. In context of the past ~13 months, maybe it should be viewed as another bounce down off the major trendline. 

Today, lots of things are already sold off, so I was looking for continuation down. TSLA set up first. But then I bought puts accidentally instead of calls. I realized when the stock went up, but my position didn't. Yikes! I quickly entered a stop above that bar and then reduced it to try to get out better. Thankfully, I got out flat (loss of comissions), and also got another decent setup to go long. That also didn't work out.

I didn't have much ammo left after that, and I got an amazing run down on QQQ puts. I took off 1/3 on the first stall and then like a jerk rode it for another 2 hours, just to get out at the same option price. Meanwhile I rode out 2 too-big spikes. Got lucky to get another chance at those gains.

duuuuump!

Lots of economic numbers this morning. Market started strong-ish, and traded right up to 

SPY- major downtrend line and ~400 round number (400.12)

QQQ- major resistance level ~285

Then couldn't catch a bid the rest of the morning. Bearish engulfing everywhere. As of 11:50 when I'm writing.

I got UAL for an overbought reversal. Wide spreads and volatility, but I got some good exits. Left some on the table, but have to do what I do. Clockwork. My rules, my trade, my money, yada yada 

MRNA was "hard work" it wasn't exploding up where it was "supposed to" eventually I took a stop/limit and was so annoyed. Until several minutes later when I was SO RELIEVED!

too eager too early

Yesterday was a market holiday. Today I came in too eager. SHOP too early, no protection. TSLA too eager, too big, initial loss. Very lucky to exit green today.

TSLA I waited (sort of?), but it showed a lot of strength so I went ahead with a little extra size, and then it dumped. In retrospect, even though I waited, the entry was still extended and shouldn't have been bigger than full size. The loss wasn't too bad, but I used a lot of capital being wrong. Second time in, I really got the move, but I was in about half size because I didn't have capital left to deploy any bigger.

SHOP I didn't get my stop in while I was working on TSLA. I rode it all the way down. Kept waiting for a pivot to stop against. Meanwhile my calls went down the drain. Was very lucky to get back above break even and then played it really tight. Not proud of this trade and I only got out green with absolute luck.

Tight stop is the right stop

Overall I like how I traded today. I left some on the table for making the right call with too-tight stops, but I know that giving too much room and turning to "hope trading" is also how I lose a lot. It's better to take the small losses and move on than to experience big losses and toxic problems.

Psychologically, I am aware that I am very affected and prone to tilt whenever I have any loss. Combine with, when I close a trade, that money is locked for the day (cash account) and I used to try to hold so I wouldn't "waste" the chance of that money. That was leading to big losses and too-often tilting. Ex: if I'm trading 0dte, I'm probably on tilt. Tight stops have a dual benefit - keep losses small (less/smaller tilt?) and also, yes, lock out that money to stop myself from going bonkers. 

I often contemplate whether it's better to take a few really big positions (3?) with my allocated capital, or several small positions. Current thinking is to trade bigger, take my gains and/or losses and be done. The more times I trade the more opportunities to do something dumb and the more likely I'll end up trading after my setups are expired. Get in there, take my money, get out! Go have a nice day!

I love trading TSM. It's often a real big winner for me and today it also paid. Nice breakout above a LT level. TSM gave an initial long, which I gave no room bc AMD and NVDA tanked simultaneously and the market was very volatile off 8:30 CPI number. Took a second trade with a strong bounce which I also traded tightly. 

Third TSM trade, I tried for short on this breakdown pattern that I'm often early to. Today again, early. I gave it that room and got a skinny target, but I tightened too much for the real flush. No regrets on that. 

BABA daily is very extended. It didn't make new premkt highs along with the CPI number and maybe it ran out of steam. I like how I entered, but should I have given it room to bounce (see TSM above)? Probably not. Got stopped out and missed the move I wanted. No regrets here bc I was shorting a stock that has been outrageously strong over several days and was still inside yesterday's bar. Can't mess around there.

*********

After a ndh and ndl in the opening session, TSM (and the market) has been full bull. Not my money! I'm getting other things done now (SDS... SB... call after call...)

Trader interview featuring me

In November I was featured as a speaker by the DC Traders Meetup. The video has been posted.

  See it here

0:00 into / overview / risk warnings

12:00 options scalping rationale and mini lesson

24:50 Beginning of me describing my process, overview

34:10 Example of my workflow

39:30 sample trade progression

48:00 quick hit trade reviews

1:04:40 Q&A

All eyes on TSLA

TSLA was the only trade I loved today. I love that daily pattern for a continuation up. Lots of eyes on TSLA. Wanted the followthrough today.

Started by watching intraday levels. I don't mind the few losses I took on starters. I was pre-empting, so starters are the way to go. In retrospect, it seems silly to have tried the puts, but it briefly seemed like TSLA was going to reject vs break the level I wanted. 

Finally TSLA (and the market) started to firm up and I was able to get a good add. I also went farther otm (much smaller/lotto) in case I could get a real flier today. 

When it finally did the beauty run I was hesitant to take targets, especially after the initial losses. Wanted redemption of losses. Wanted 🤑, but I must capture the bread and butter even if I'm still in the red, so I took that pl target. Each trade must be managed on its own, and not in light of what other trades did to me. Also pained me to take that second (squeezed) stop, but that is clockwork and clockwork works. Follow the rules!
I still had the flier in case of launch, but even without the lottos I was back in green at that point with just simple clockwork.

More proof I must stick with clockwork, is how I exited on the downside. Everything I was watching inexplicably topped around 10:25. SPY never even made ndh which is a yellow light on breakouts. I skimmed out of the flier (130 calls) position on the other side. I hated every moment of selling because I dreamed of 128 and 135 targets, but after the fact, as it continued even more downward, I'm glad to be out.

LESSON - The ~66% gains on the otm options were the same approximate dollar gain as the ~20% gains on the atm options because of the difference in cost. Yes I had to deploy more capital for the gains on the atms, but also otms are more likely to dissolve in my hands vs get these gains.
Example:
123C : cost 3.18 : 20% gain=$64 each
130C : cost 1.02 : 66% gain=$67 each

I have studied this before and concluded it is generally better for me to stay at the money. Even though I can get more contracts otm, the position loses value faster in absence of a big move. Losers are bigger, but winners aren't necessarily bigger. Otm is only good for a lotto type play, small size that I could lose entirely, and needing a really big move to get the payoff. It is not psychologically good for me to be always trading on lotto for the same reason it's not good for me to imagine every trade is a homerun.

Please just stick with clockwork. This is a great example of listening to what IS happening and making a great day after of initial losses. If I had held against hope, that is wishing. Trading is not wishing. Consistent profitability is following the rules like clockwork and getting MY money.

Whatever happens next is not my trade. I made good money today., Closed all exposure by 10:35am. Now I go have a great day doing other things with my gains locked in. That's also clockwork trading: grab my money and go have a day, sleep well at night. Don't sweat the market all day and night.

****

Over an hour later, if I was still in this, I would be sweating and obsessing. But instead, I've had a nice morning of journaling, logging, and chatting with trading buddies.

Afternoon trading

 Travelled home this morning, so looked for some trades in the early afternoon. Market looks decent, but I am not used to trading the afternoons. I used super tight stops. 

Ironically, the trade that paid the best was the one I was late to. Found V using the R-vol screen on TradingView for 5 min relative volume. I don't really want to trade afternoons, but I'll keep that in mind, maybe even for late morning.

Even so, I made pretty good gains in about 45 minutes on a day I wasn't sure I'd get to trade at all. Feels like free money.

market trend day, finally!

 FINALLY!!! This range has been tough to trade. Lots of gorgeous action today. Raked it in!!! Exactly what I need to do on a market trend day.

Market breakout day, push on longs today. Jumped too early into NVDA (chased) and didn't get my stop in fast enough. LESSON: if I'm going to chase, put the stop in first! Added as it rounded the bottom. Tight stop as it retested day high and took a loss but got back to better size. Then trade "normal": zigs no zags. Got such nice gainer on the add.

Tried a small UBER and got a smidge out as it pulled back and stopped. The daily setup is overextended, but in my platform the intraday price/volume/level setup seemed ok. Didn't power up the way other stuff is powering, getting somewhere around a 10-13% gain for me, which I didn't take. Tightened stop and dumped it, eating the spread.