real quick Friday

Hit and run, some real quick trades this morning. I have a lot of ammo left, but I don't want to get consumed. I made nice money in about 15 market minutes and I'm going to go have a day. Esp Friday I don't want to get absorbed.

BABA st level. Got in too early, but stop wasn't breeched and I added small to smidge oversize. Took "10%" target (turned out to be 8%), then set the rest for a 20% target (turned out to be 18%, looks like I thought I entered $1 but was actually $1.01) on the original. Happened fast and somehow exited all. Don't want to try to meddle back into it. Take my terrific gains and go have a day.

META, trying to preempt the st level break using strength of a 1 min bottom. Bit of a late entry and chickened out in opening volatility. At least got b/e.

Don't want to give the market any more of my mental energy, but as I watch BABA losing it I see I probably wouldn't have gotten more. META continuing and breaking st daily level, but would have been a tough hold for 0dte. No regrets to take MY money and gtho.

Shabbat shalom!

Before I leave my desk, interesting how similar daily setup is trading differently. BABA already broke out and was a choppy trade. META broke intraday, but the strength is there.

continuation down day

Yesterday was a big down day. In context of the past ~13 months, maybe it should be viewed as another bounce down off the major trendline. 

Today, lots of things are already sold off, so I was looking for continuation down. TSLA set up first. But then I bought puts accidentally instead of calls. I realized when the stock went up, but my position didn't. Yikes! I quickly entered a stop above that bar and then reduced it to try to get out better. Thankfully, I got out flat (loss of comissions), and also got another decent setup to go long. That also didn't work out.

I didn't have much ammo left after that, and I got an amazing run down on QQQ puts. I took off 1/3 on the first stall and then like a jerk rode it for another 2 hours, just to get out at the same option price. Meanwhile I rode out 2 too-big spikes. Got lucky to get another chance at those gains.

duuuuump!

Lots of economic numbers this morning. Market started strong-ish, and traded right up to 

SPY- major downtrend line and ~400 round number (400.12)

QQQ- major resistance level ~285

Then couldn't catch a bid the rest of the morning. Bearish engulfing everywhere. As of 11:50 when I'm writing.

I got UAL for an overbought reversal. Wide spreads and volatility, but I got some good exits. Left some on the table, but have to do what I do. Clockwork. My rules, my trade, my money, yada yada 

MRNA was "hard work" it wasn't exploding up where it was "supposed to" eventually I took a stop/limit and was so annoyed. Until several minutes later when I was SO RELIEVED!

too eager too early

Yesterday was a market holiday. Today I came in too eager. SHOP too early, no protection. TSLA too eager, too big, initial loss. Very lucky to exit green today.

TSLA I waited (sort of?), but it showed a lot of strength so I went ahead with a little extra size, and then it dumped. In retrospect, even though I waited, the entry was still extended and shouldn't have been bigger than full size. The loss wasn't too bad, but I used a lot of capital being wrong. Second time in, I really got the move, but I was in about half size because I didn't have capital left to deploy any bigger.

SHOP I didn't get my stop in while I was working on TSLA. I rode it all the way down. Kept waiting for a pivot to stop against. Meanwhile my calls went down the drain. Was very lucky to get back above break even and then played it really tight. Not proud of this trade and I only got out green with absolute luck.

Tight stop is the right stop

Overall I like how I traded today. I left some on the table for making the right call with too-tight stops, but I know that giving too much room and turning to "hope trading" is also how I lose a lot. It's better to take the small losses and move on than to experience big losses and toxic problems.

Psychologically, I am aware that I am very affected and prone to tilt whenever I have any loss. Combine with, when I close a trade, that money is locked for the day (cash account) and I used to try to hold so I wouldn't "waste" the chance of that money. That was leading to big losses and too-often tilting. Ex: if I'm trading 0dte, I'm probably on tilt. Tight stops have a dual benefit - keep losses small (less/smaller tilt?) and also, yes, lock out that money to stop myself from going bonkers. 

I often contemplate whether it's better to take a few really big positions (3?) with my allocated capital, or several small positions. Current thinking is to trade bigger, take my gains and/or losses and be done. The more times I trade the more opportunities to do something dumb and the more likely I'll end up trading after my setups are expired. Get in there, take my money, get out! Go have a nice day!

I love trading TSM. It's often a real big winner for me and today it also paid. Nice breakout above a LT level. TSM gave an initial long, which I gave no room bc AMD and NVDA tanked simultaneously and the market was very volatile off 8:30 CPI number. Took a second trade with a strong bounce which I also traded tightly. 

Third TSM trade, I tried for short on this breakdown pattern that I'm often early to. Today again, early. I gave it that room and got a skinny target, but I tightened too much for the real flush. No regrets on that. 

BABA daily is very extended. It didn't make new premkt highs along with the CPI number and maybe it ran out of steam. I like how I entered, but should I have given it room to bounce (see TSM above)? Probably not. Got stopped out and missed the move I wanted. No regrets here bc I was shorting a stock that has been outrageously strong over several days and was still inside yesterday's bar. Can't mess around there.

*********

After a ndh and ndl in the opening session, TSM (and the market) has been full bull. Not my money! I'm getting other things done now (SDS... SB... call after call...)

Trader interview featuring me

In November I was featured as a speaker by the DC Traders Meetup. The video has been posted.

  See it here

0:00 into / overview / risk warnings

12:00 options scalping rationale and mini lesson

24:50 Beginning of me describing my process, overview

34:10 Example of my workflow

39:30 sample trade progression

48:00 quick hit trade reviews

1:04:40 Q&A

All eyes on TSLA

TSLA was the only trade I loved today. I love that daily pattern for a continuation up. Lots of eyes on TSLA. Wanted the followthrough today.

Started by watching intraday levels. I don't mind the few losses I took on starters. I was pre-empting, so starters are the way to go. In retrospect, it seems silly to have tried the puts, but it briefly seemed like TSLA was going to reject vs break the level I wanted. 

Finally TSLA (and the market) started to firm up and I was able to get a good add. I also went farther otm (much smaller/lotto) in case I could get a real flier today. 

When it finally did the beauty run I was hesitant to take targets, especially after the initial losses. Wanted redemption of losses. Wanted 🤑, but I must capture the bread and butter even if I'm still in the red, so I took that pl target. Each trade must be managed on its own, and not in light of what other trades did to me. Also pained me to take that second (squeezed) stop, but that is clockwork and clockwork works. Follow the rules!
I still had the flier in case of launch, but even without the lottos I was back in green at that point with just simple clockwork.

More proof I must stick with clockwork, is how I exited on the downside. Everything I was watching inexplicably topped around 10:25. SPY never even made ndh which is a yellow light on breakouts. I skimmed out of the flier (130 calls) position on the other side. I hated every moment of selling because I dreamed of 128 and 135 targets, but after the fact, as it continued even more downward, I'm glad to be out.

LESSON - The ~66% gains on the otm options were the same approximate dollar gain as the ~20% gains on the atm options because of the difference in cost. Yes I had to deploy more capital for the gains on the atms, but also otms are more likely to dissolve in my hands vs get these gains.
Example:
123C : cost 3.18 : 20% gain=$64 each
130C : cost 1.02 : 66% gain=$67 each

I have studied this before and concluded it is generally better for me to stay at the money. Even though I can get more contracts otm, the position loses value faster in absence of a big move. Losers are bigger, but winners aren't necessarily bigger. Otm is only good for a lotto type play, small size that I could lose entirely, and needing a really big move to get the payoff. It is not psychologically good for me to be always trading on lotto for the same reason it's not good for me to imagine every trade is a homerun.

Please just stick with clockwork. This is a great example of listening to what IS happening and making a great day after of initial losses. If I had held against hope, that is wishing. Trading is not wishing. Consistent profitability is following the rules like clockwork and getting MY money.

Whatever happens next is not my trade. I made good money today., Closed all exposure by 10:35am. Now I go have a great day doing other things with my gains locked in. That's also clockwork trading: grab my money and go have a day, sleep well at night. Don't sweat the market all day and night.

****

Over an hour later, if I was still in this, I would be sweating and obsessing. But instead, I've had a nice morning of journaling, logging, and chatting with trading buddies.

Afternoon trading

 Travelled home this morning, so looked for some trades in the early afternoon. Market looks decent, but I am not used to trading the afternoons. I used super tight stops. 

Ironically, the trade that paid the best was the one I was late to. Found V using the R-vol screen on TradingView for 5 min relative volume. I don't really want to trade afternoons, but I'll keep that in mind, maybe even for late morning.

Even so, I made pretty good gains in about 45 minutes on a day I wasn't sure I'd get to trade at all. Feels like free money.

market trend day, finally!

 FINALLY!!! This range has been tough to trade. Lots of gorgeous action today. Raked it in!!! Exactly what I need to do on a market trend day.

Market breakout day, push on longs today. Jumped too early into NVDA (chased) and didn't get my stop in fast enough. LESSON: if I'm going to chase, put the stop in first! Added as it rounded the bottom. Tight stop as it retested day high and took a loss but got back to better size. Then trade "normal": zigs no zags. Got such nice gainer on the add.

Tried a small UBER and got a smidge out as it pulled back and stopped. The daily setup is overextended, but in my platform the intraday price/volume/level setup seemed ok. Didn't power up the way other stuff is powering, getting somewhere around a 10-13% gain for me, which I didn't take. Tightened stop and dumped it, eating the spread.

TSLA mood

I think I keep looking to TSLA in an irrational way. Wanting too much from it. "Seeing setups" that aren't my best setups.

Premkt notes. I arrived late to my desk didn't get a good look, didn't get a good watchlist. Felt confident until I had login problems, and even less prep time. 

As a result of insufficient prep I looked to my usual suspects. SPY puts paid nicely. I had a pltgt and a T1 that were right next to each other and wasn't able to cancel one quickly enough so dumped all against my better intention. Turned out to be not too much left on the table after all.

Then I turned to TSLA. This was C-psychology situation. I was hoping for that homerun breakdown so I reloaded. Was that a good idea? Well, if it was a winner I might have said yes. I like my wait for initial entry off vwap. I like that I salvaged some profit on the first half. Don't like where I added back. Of course the result is disappointing.

picture of a bottom

Picture perfect anatomy of a bottom

Bread and butter

Theme for now is "bread and butter". I need to make sure to grab my targets, even reducing targets to 15% for a while, to make sure I'm paying myself first. I should be focusing on grabbing my pltgt almost every trade. 

Today's opening notes to self: Neutral open. Use 15% pltgt. Premarket mindframe: unfocused 🚩

I'm experimenting with different screeners and screen parameters. I need more to work with. Setups remain the same, but I'm trying harder to find more tradeable tickers.

NKE trade was pure greed. Jumped the gun on entry. Option was spready and amplified, so even at the top I wasn't making money... but I sure lost it in the drop. At least I had half a brain to not take full size. This trade was a waste (see above, unfocused?).

TSLA greed trade got me twice. If I'm going on "intraday setups", both setups were valid. If I'm going on daily setup, I never should have been looking at TSLA in the first place.

Realizing I didn't post yesterday / somehow?

2023 Tiny green day bc toxic 0dte win

Market opened above st levels. Bumped a bit, then bled out.

I got a nice long in SQ by waiting, taking 15% pltgt (which hit where 20% didn't) and tight stop for opening green trade on the year. 

Then it went red like the market. 

WYNN. Valid daily setup. Bought volume bounce back off rinse/retest of opening low. It dumped immediately.

GOOGL gap above st downtrend. Vwap bounce failed.

TSLA bottomfish off support area and mini consolidation. Failed. 

SPY 0dte = toxic trade. Made it back, but could have gone either way. (not shown)

 

Incompetent.

 I spent most of the morning trading long then short TSLA and came up red. Both great entries. What went wrong? Greed. I ignored my pl target and tried for a homerun. 

This is the trading performance of a child or a novice. I know better than this. Lessons learned a zillion times: I am not smarter than the market; Clockwork works, follow the rules; don't hold for homeruns. Always take a pltgt.

What a way to close the year. -12% on the long and -5% on the short, after each had been up 30%+. There is literally no way to explain this incompetent behavior except extreme greed. 

What was my mental state that posessed me to trade like a jerk? Greed. "This is going to really run"... "This is going to get wrecked." I should BE AWARE when I notice myself thinking these thoughts. These are irrational thoughts.

Taking off until next week. May 2023 be my most profitable yet!!

One and done

Tuesday morning, Dec 27. Happy anniversary!

Friday was half day for the market. Monday closed. Who knows what's pent up this morning? Who knows if there will be action this last week in December?

Reviewed "lekachim" over the weekend. A lot of treasure there. Will organize and post bli neder.

One of the lekachim was from when I used to trade bigger, and reminded me trade management around sizing and max risk. I decided to try working that method again... Basically, go big first trade. If it's a winner I can trade again, but smaller. If it's a loss, I'm done. Motivates me to get the first trade RIGHT. Or sends me away if I don't qualify to continue.

Today the setup I like the best was AAPL. It is LONG TERM failing on the daily/weekly. Shorting weakness in the fin. However, bc I'm in pretty big, I'm taking old pltgt also of 10-15%. Also some support at 130. In retrospect I took it off early. But without retrospect, aka in real life, I like the levels I picked (short on pb to vwap), and I love the money I made. Done by 9:50am. Off to enjoy my day!

THE REAL WIN OF THE DAY is that I resisted other trades as I'm journaling. I decided not to mess with my solid gains...that is a TILT trigger 🌪. Best move is to take my money and run! 

nicks and cuts

Traded super tight tolerances today QCOM, MSFT, MU. Hard work for a green day that was straight down on indexes.As I write SPY -1.8%, QQQ -2.8%. If there's going to be any kind of Santa Claus rally, it's running out of time.  

I might annotate later, but I need to run out and I don't really feel like coming back to it. Frustrating day.

I guess if I think about it more, tight stop is the right stop, and the problem, if anything was that I picked choppy trades vs the no-bid trades that didn't zig zag so much. How can I anticipate that?

Chasing/flushing

Quickie recap today. Over eager before the numbers and then got flushed twice. Need to spend more time with the psychology book! And definitely I need to keep trading small. I don't trust myself yet.

Chased NKE, came out net even on 80%. Then got stopped before the reverse on the ndl so solidify tough net loss for the position. Why was I still holding all the way down there? I held all my stops, just shouldn't have given so much room (or maybe should have given a liiiitle more room?)

Then I got over-enthusiastic on a TSLA long for a reversal that didn't work, also hit with a flush and reverse. 

Looked at SPY after Consumer Confidence number and thought to buy, but passed bc I was overexposed already. Maybe that was the mistake of the day: not leaving myself room to trade after the number.

harnessing that mindset?

Market opens down again. So oversold I think anything could trigger a face ripping rocket launch. Yet, lots of weakness around the open.

My pick, META for a ST level breakdown. 

Entry after pop to resistance and drop. Again I didn't wait for level to develop enough, but in the subsequent minutes it held ok. 

Management. Initial stop ndh, quickly reduced to the level just above my entry. In a few minutes it flushed. I didn't grab the stall, and it rose all the way back. Continued down, but didn't quite make it to my T1 or pltgt. When it stalled down there I though to grab some off, but reduced my stop instead...only to yank it and then actually get my face ripped off. A +15% went -30. I felt all the points along the way I "should have" stopped. First fatal flaw is always yanking the stop. Why!? I can re-enter if it sets up again. Why am I arrogant like that? 

Knowing I was on the wrong side of META, I started a long even before the short stopped. Got a nice winner on the starter and a loss on the add. 

Then the RISK MANAGER arrives. I want to trade again. I allocate myself the minimal increment more money and get myself another META long. It chops and chops. Meanwhile, it looks like the market is going to roll over. I squeeze the stop on the META calls.

...and also the risk manager allocates another chunk and I open a concurrent SPY short via 0dte (not even 1dte???) puts. This is a bit of a desperate kind of trade, obv. BH it made my day.

PSYCHOLOGY

1. As always, I like the system of allocating money to myself for additional trading vs leaving it all sit there. Guardrail against bingeing.

2. I wish ruthless-trader will always show up! Shrewd entries. Tight stops. Sync'ed with the market. I should name her and try to invoke her. Where was she when lackadaisical-trader yanked the stop from META?

psychology

 I just started reading The Mental Game of Trading.
Here comes a new season of introspection and improvements!

Today, I was aware that META at the bottom was "hard work" but I went ahead and yanked my stop which is fatal flaw #1. Later in the day, I traded more eagle-eyed and I like that version of me when trading. More ruthless. I want to work on bringing that version of me more often. Details in recap post.

new playbook ideas

Breakout gaps has been a hard game lately. There seem to be rare seasons for good breakout gap trading... when the market is trending strongly. Working on other plays so I can trade additional valid plays.

I'm adding to my playbook: breakouts without gaps (trend trade); reversals off extreme daily levels (fade/reversal trade).

Today, Monday morning after a helluva week. Market is oversold but still showing weakness. The play for 4+ days: sell any bounce. 

AMZN setup = level breakdown on volume

Entry: waited out the opening flush. Felt fomo. On the bounce, it went above vwap, and despite waiting for this bounce, I was overeager on the entry. 

Management: It got near my ultimate stop then resumed down, but when it bounced again I got worried about holding full size so I trimmed part for a loss. Then instead of p/l target, I worked with a stock price target (a old/new technique). When it got below my T1 86.31, I squeezed the stop to capture a smidge more. Then stopped the rest on a different tightened stop while market looked to bounce.

Market is so oversold, I'm worried that a bounce will RIP. Later it dropped strongly as the market made new lows, but that's not my money. There is no scenario where I should still been in for the 10:15 bounce. That would be a re-entry play if anything, but I was done.

IWM setup = reversal off support

Typically I am not good at picking tops/bottoms, but in an oversold market like this, I would like to be able to buy support for a bounce. This is a terribly sloppy example. As the market (SPY, QQQ, IWM) was bouncing, I saw that IWM was one that had some sort of relative strength on the 1 minute. And hadn't broken down yesterday's bar. 

Entry: Very late! Watching lvl2 and very tight stop, grabbed 0dte calls. 

Management: Have to trade these tight, and take profits esp bc my late entry. I like what I did (easy to say on a winner). Initial stop below the previous 1 min bar. Sell half on the stall. Tight trail stop on second half. SCALP! Countertrend trades should be given zero room.

aapl long term failure

In terms of sentiment, AAPL is making a lonnnng term trendline breakdown.

AAPL (weekly)

sidelines

I didn't trade today. Also no trading tomorrow. I'm in the doghouse, calming down from my tilt. Monday and Tuesday didn't go great, even trading small, so I'm discouraged. Headspace is "nothing will ever work ever again". I realize this is dramatic, but it's not conducive to good trading.

I haven't been seeing my "best setups" too much lately and so I hack around on sub-optimal stuff. I feel like I want to work on different kinds of setups, and/or different kind of screening. I'm really off kilter right now. 

It's a frustrating mental space. Maybe it's not the right climate for my system. Maybe I need new plays in my playbook. 

A little crazy how much the tilt affected my mentality. It's been a while, and maybe I thought that I'm past that. I haven't had a max WEEK loss for a long time. But it didn't happen out of the blue. It came after a series of forced trades and silently (actually, not so silent in retrospect) accumulating indiscretions. I need better checks on that. 

Hoping to corner myself to focus on reading and studying. Maybe working on additional plays. 

Anyway, tomorrow a Friday off is definitely in order.

same mistake - LESSON

Today I made the same poor judgement on BA as I did yesterday(inverse) on QCOM. I'm trying to buy a pullback of the gap/go. But I'm actually going in on more than a pullback. 

Yesterday, QCOM was supposed to be a bear play but it opened with a strong bull surge that I tried to short. Today, BA was supposed to be a bull play but I tried to buy a too-big drop. A drop, not a pullback. I should have passed.

For comparison, QCOM yesterday

penalty box

I'm in the penalty box this week after tilt on NFLX Friday for max loss. It's been a long time since I tilted, but I should never assume I'm immune. I am trading 1/10 my usual size this week, but already I've broken a rule on QCOM by yanking my intended initial stop. Maybe I need to paper trade tomorrow.

What I did right today, though, was trading "best setups". Not that they played out for me, but...

RIVN 

Setup - Gap below level

Entry - Strong open down

Management - initial stop above signal bar. Stopped partial on 2 bar reversal, took smaller target and tighter stop when I got the chance.

QCOM - for a short, but it was inexplicably stronger than the market. Is this one of the stocks people love to buy when it's hit? Or did wells fargo downgrade it so they could start buying?

Setup - Gap below level

Entry - I hesitated over really strong opening move, but wanted to short reversal down below vwap. 

Management - Initial stop 117.93, above mini range. Yanked that, then really tested my luck as market ran down without QCOM. Then WTF did I give it so much room? "Logically" because my gap and go is supposed to go. So I gave it room. But I gave it even too much more room.