melt down vs capitulation

Oy this market! Agonizing meltdown with no relief. And yet no capitulation/panic. Vibe is more of a prolonged rolling doom.

Market action today is strong whips. I didn't have any setups. Lost 2% on SPY puts in the open and called it quits. 

bbands and staying in

I've been experimenting with Bollinger Bands on all timeframes. What can bbands do for me?

So far, bbands have helped me stay in winning trades longer. During a trade, I am inclined to look at my pl and think "That's enough! I need to lock it in before it evaporates." And close a trade too early. 

Bbands are helping me look at a trade and realize... ok, that's normal volatility, I'm ok, I'm ok, I'm ok...

Today, BABA (which, maybe I shouldn't have been in in the first place) eventually established a trend. It never dropped out dramatically. It just kept eroding and eroding. The kind of thing where I'm likely to tighten down too early. *Sometimes this is correct to do, like on a Thursday or Friday when I lose time quickly and won't gain in absence of a strong trend.

Today I did stop out of half of BABA for a loss, but I was able to hold the other half for a nice ride into green. Looking at the bands (2sd and 3sd) on the 5- and 1-min, BABA stayed "in the river" and also below the midline most of the time. When it tested the top bands on the 1-min and bounced back down, that's a new lower stop. 

Eventually, BABA really simmered down to pretty flat and the market tried a bounce so I took it off. If not for bbands, I'm pretty sure it would have been a red day today. 

not bull enough

Market opening big gap up today, but relative to things lately, it is still inside yesterday's meaningful bear day. Action is not bull enough. I'm looking for shorts off highs.

Plenty of gaps up on the screener, but most are inside, even if they are +3% gaps. The gaps down screen are -20% and more.

NVAX excellent setup. Got a great entry, but then the spread opened up to 30%+ on the option. I was lucky to get out for pltgt and don't look back (well... looking back, I would have gotten wrecked)

BABA is poised for major tl breakdown. It flusssshed on the open. Grabbed micropause and then traded it tight. Didn't get pl, but got out green. Peace.

MSFT I wanted the 270 breakdown again. I think the setup is valid, but it didn't work. Maybe gave it too much room, but don't regret that (eh... much).

Today I'm looking forward to the first Tuesday noon trader meetup that I started. Hope to meet some great people. 

"The Art" and stops

2 trades today, FB and NVDA. On FB I minded my stop. On NVDA I gave more room. Why? 

FB trade I got in really fast/early. It dropped out and then reversed hard immediately. Adhered to my stop. Later it did what I wanted, but that was after a while of an actual uptrend and holding vwap, etc. I didn't know that at the time, so I could only act on the immediate full reversal bar.

NVDA, why did I hold puts for new highs? First of all I was in somewhat smaller and had a better entry, so I didn't have to trade it so tightly. Interesting!! That's something I don't show on the charts. NVDA is weaker on the daily and doing a more promising breakdown (so, why wasn't I in davka bigger? minding my risk). It still didn't feel good, but it wasn't crossing p/l thresholds. 

NVDA exit: I am working on trying to go smaller/hold longer, so when it got to the pl tgt, I tightened my stop but didn't trim. I was trading for a stock price target. It made the ~175 area target easily and did only a small pause before going to the 174 area target. Looking at bollinger band charts to try to help me $$volatility, and it stopped riding the 3sd band on the 5 also touched the 2band on the daily (source of the targets anyway). Captured much more on this trade than I would have with the 20% first target. But more info needed to rely on this.

no bids

The market can not get a grip. At this point, even though I'm raking it in, I'm very uncomfortable about the big picture of the market. We're on the precipice. It has seemed this way for several days. Wednesday's wild run up after the fed announcement was a glimmer of hope, but we gave that back the next morning and much much more. 

This is different from my other feelings of "panic" at lows we've bounced off. This is more like looming doom. A feeling that it's inevitable, so how much is it going to hurt? 

If they say "hold your nose and buy" then is now the time to buy? Ugh. We know I'm not good at picking bottoms. I would only long-term add/buy when my market sentiment changes. I don't need to pick bottoms. 

I've had a few stellar days lately, tucking away some gains. Today caught the opening selloff on NVDA. Was not on my screeners. Meir pick. It's Friday in a crazy climate, so I got the flush and got out!
(as I write this 90 min later, nvda bounced hard and is~191, up 1% on the day. Must lock gains!)

Holding for hope

Market getting crushed today. 

Yesterday was a stinking weak day until the fed came out and lifted markets about 4%. Today, wiped out. Opening 2 hours were nothing but red. Really a blood bath. No bids.

I picked W today and went a bit too big on it (bc thin spready option... will I learn?) and hoped for a Thursday gem.

I got almost 20% in the opening push, then held. I wanted 30% out of this (greed!!), and the ask got there easily but no fills. Then I held with a bracket.

Pause to relate: I'm trying to see what bollinger bands and RSI can do for me. Can this help me stay in trades longer? What I think I've learned so far is that it's ok for it to test the opposite band and still be in "reasonable volatility" vs trend change. Will continue to test this.

Back to our story... I may have gotten lucky this time, but I took the attitude that "I hold for hope when the trade goes too far against me, why can't I hold for more when the trade is doing exactly what I think?" So I held and held (and went out to Costco), and held for what I had always believed was an ambitious but entirely reasonable stock price target. 

B"H! I got it and had a great green day. 

With that said, the "easy" money would have been otm puts on the indices at the open, but that's hindsight. 

5 min

1 min

pop and drop

Today there were a few decent long picks. None worked. OXY Category C loss. MRNA D loss (is there another kind of loss on MRNA?). Ugh.

green to red

 Standard green trade in the open on WDC. Got the opening move, pltgt, tight stop on stall as maket reversed. Textbook.

Then gave it all back an more on MOS "failure to fail". MOS setup was valid. Gap down on volume. Traded up, then faded with market fading, but when it reversed sharply, I got trapped bc huge spread (yanked my stop, wtf!). I need to just avoid the huge spreads. I'm not "too smart" (and not lucky enough!) to outplay massive spread.

I'm not getting a lot of setups for my breakout trading... for a long time now. I need to work on another technique. Maybe a mean-reversion technique / bollingerband plays maybe. Probably also need to invest in TC2000 so I can screen for whatever I want intraday.

The gift of the p&l target

Two trades today. Each off in full for p&l target. Done by 9:36. 

FB I had 202, 207 levels above. It pushed up strongly at open. I grabbed a small position, took it off for +20% and it stalled/reversed right after, while the the market was also rolling over. In retrospect (at 11am) I can see that it held the day low (even while market flushed) and went strongly to 207 and beyond, but I have no regrets making 20% in 2 min and not suffering the pb.

Simultaneously, the market started to weaken so I looked for a short there and I got the flush. 20% pl target and 9:36 I walked away. I've been trading the near exp SPY options a lot lately, for a feeling that nothing else is setting up. Over the weekend I was thinking how I tend toward that in a lazy way. That I should be looking to play relative strength/weakness and not the index itself. The same-day expiration, though! Gambler mentality?

Love Love Thursdays!!

Thursday is my favorite trading day. The options are HOT, but still have a smidge enough time on them.

Everyone is looking at FB today, gapping 16% on earnings. The setup is a gap up against yesterday's breakdown day. I had noted 207 (50ma) level, and premkt support 198ish. Thought it could pull back to 195 and still be decent for a long. 

In the opening minute/2, it ran straight to 207, then 208. And then croaked. Like we've seen lots of things do lately. We're in a bearish market. Runups should be treated skeptically. 

After the runup and the full retracement, it looked like it was going to reject vwap and I jumped into puts. One bar of nerves, and I was going to give it ndh, but then it dropped out. I held past p/l target but trailed the pltgt stop down after it. Market dropping in tandem. 

Other levels I noted, 198 pmkt low, 195 area from daily chart. It crossed premkt support easily and I thought it was going to go straight to hell, but when it stalled, I tightened up. Grabbed +48% by 9:46. Zigs no zags! I'm going to go have a nice day! Peace!

picking bottoms --> don't!

I'm not good at picking bottoms. Always remember! I am a trend-trader. I'm great at trends. Stink at reversals.

Tried to pick a bottom with SPY calls today. Got burned on ndl, then it reversed in my direction without me. Do I need to learn this repeatedly? 

Trend is my friend!

no bid morning

Market no bid day. Straight down. So many shorts got away on the open. I waited 10 whole minutes before attempting my first trade. VERY unusual for me.

First trade NVDA, missed the next move, but no regrets squeezing my stop. Remember that! 

GLW perket up with 1 min vol recovering VWAP. Take those targets! Bounced into daily 50ma and I tightened up. At a certain point, the bid on the option completely disappeared. Was .6x.7 and then the bid dropped to 0.15. That's scared me to just get the heck out when I could!

Sell while I can, is my piece

Lost (-13%) on XPEV puts in the open

SPY calls was trade of the day, +19%, +61%, +129%. Had to take off the last part with a stop around 3:00 because I was about to get my eyes dilated and wouldn't be able to manage it from phone without seeing. Left another ~100% on the table (If you think I would have held for the dip back to 424, which is meh), but gotta get what you get!! PEACE!

today, puts

Today I got the NVDA puts. Daily nms, but same burn setup. Got some off at +20%, +40%, max gain lots off at +94%.

Holding one lotto put, different strike, into tomorrow (chag) with orders around it. Whatever.

too big

Got burned big on NVDA calls. All around bad trade and a big loss which I deserved. 

I am not smarter than the market. 

One trade, in parts

MRNA best looking setup this morning. It can be a tough one, I know. Wait for pb and take targets.

Took a starter on opening weakness. Added on the reverse back down. PLtgt like clockwork. When it didn't do much of a bounce from there, I added back, and set another pltgt on that entry. 

When it followed through down, I squeezed the stop on the final.

Yes, I think MRNA goes much farther down today (even as I write this). But I don't want to spend psychological capital on that. SPY is going strong up, MRNA is very volatile. Take my amazing trade and PEACE! 

Done before 9:45, go have a day!!

 

15 min day

2 nice trades this morning. Done before 9:45. I have more cash, but... I'm going to go out on a high note. It's chol hamoed. My kids are home. Let's go have a nice day!!

Tight stop is the right stop

Both trades were losers. Contained the losses. Bummer, but ... Peace!

Question of the day: Why did I waste my money trading AMD? Guard against greed!!

Phew!

One trade. Done.

Market opening inside, third day in this narrow range trying to hold 50mas. Means, be skeptical.

No great picks. CRWD big volume gap, but not a stellar setup. Also very volatile and spready. What could go wrong?! Meanwhile the market opened and dropped straight out.

Set an alert for a possible entry price level. It ran to my target, but I didn't fill. Had to take half on stop. Reversed well and I added back. Again I didn't fill when it got stuck under 226. Reduced my first target to make sure to fill. Market dropping. Be skeptical. 

First half filled and then I trailed stop under the second half. Hoped to get to 229, but also watched the uptrend resistance from premkt. This concept has been helpful since I noticed it. Works on all timeframes and very helpful for targets. It may LOOK like stock is making a new high, but it's a fakeout to uptrend resistance reversal. 

Looking back at it only several minutes later... gotta take those stops. 

Trade mantras

plans

I like how I planned this morning, including actually writing it out on paper. Do this more often!

HPQ was on every watch list today on news that Berkshire took 11% stake. I think people wanted a TWTR type move. It gapped on big vol, but still inside range. I like my entry on the big green vol coming in at 9:32. B"H it moved right away and continued nicely. Shaved my way out, wary of the daily resistance trendline that has often been important lately. A+ trade

AMD (watching NVDA simultaneously) inside bar, made a decent high flag and I shorted breakdown with a lot of slippage. Market was still strong. AMD was the weaker of amd/nvda. Not cool on the bounce, but it stayed below day highs. However bc that, when I got back near b/e I tightened up. Got rinsed out on the vwap retest, and missed the drop to pltgt, but I think I should just call myself lucky on that one. 

QQQ short

Didn't get here in time to do proper market prep. Took a QQQ short from 354.8 - bottom shown. +18% on front, +63% on back. Greedy af, I wish for more. Need to figure out how to chill. Why would I look this gift in the mouth? Try to feel PEACE, bechayech!!

TWTR

Got burned on TWTR puts yesterday for a "D" trade. Ugh. No need to tilt though. Lick wounds and get back to clockwork.

Lessons to take from TWTR. First of all, I know from the past that TWTR is a fker. I've been burned before by weird option action. So remember: ROKU eats its young (flushes and reverses), but TWTR is a fker (options don't move right). 

In this case, maybe because such a big gap, the option premium was soooo exaggerated that even when the price moved, the option calmed down and didn't move (or even decreased!).

Grading trades: A frank talk w Dad

To describe to Dad how my trading is going, I categorized my trade outcomes:

Trade outcome A: I get my p&l target and subsequent higher exits

Trade outcome B: I get a pl tgt, then it fails and the back stops

Trade outcome C: No pl tgt, trade goes entirely against me ("normal loss")

Trade outcome D: outsized loss.

The problem with D trades is not only the outsized loss, but the way I am prone to tilt afterwards and have not just an outsized loss but a devastating losing streak. Let's be clear: I bring that on myself.

The prevention is the same as the cure TRADE SMALL SIZE. 

not humble enough!

Tried COIN. Got first part out, then it dissolved. 

BABA puts... still in that and not dropping with the market. In fact, no trend bgadol on the 60. This could be a shshow, tbd. Need 109 asap.

humble, nervous this morning

Feeling humble and nervous this morning. Counterbalance to recent overconfidence. 

Friday trading. I have a chance to do great ... or get burned. 

Looking at:

BBBY - meme stock. fading hard off early morning surge. What's the play? Maybe off the hourly levels. Or maybe inside bar and stay away.

MARA/COIN - gaps above bottom/downtrend patterns. This should be my best setup today. 

BABA/PDD/JD/BEKE - China exhaustion selling off huge 2-wk runups. Fade strength with caution.

NIO/XPEV/TSLA - fading, buzzing, but not really my setup.

Good to do this analysis. MARA running up 9:27. I hope I can catch it. Watch out for exuberance pricing in the option in the open. Wait for pb. Consider scaling in.

did not trade, example

KBH was my favorite setup premarket. I didn't trade it only because the options didn't open right away. Looking at the action I missed, I got lucky to be excluded from it. The opening drop wouldn't have paid and I probably would have eaten it hard on the reversal. BH I didn't get involved. Is there a lesson I can take? 

Maybe again, don't expect things to run on inside days. 

Maybe again, tight stop is the right stop. 

 

greed on inside bar = insanity!

Did I not remind myself this morning to avoid inside bars?! 

And then I grabbed GME and screwed around with it on an inside day? Passed on several stops that could have kept me green = greed/insanity.

I deserved that loss, and it was a big one, giving me a red day.

JD was the first trade of the day, though. That also went hard against me at the open. JD was not an inside bar, but THE MARKET was inside. 

On an inside day, repeat to myself over and over... don't expect this to trend... the bar is inside.

I was down big in JD at a certain point, but on average got out ok. Flushed it away on GME.

morning prompts

Reminders to myself this morning:

Just say no to nms (not my setup)

Just say no to inside day bars

Thursday... stay chill, don't get cute